Russia has considerably enhanced its international position by leveraging Western weaknesses stemming from the unwinnable war in Afghanistan and the adverse impact of the financial crisis, as well as Western dependence in dealing with Iran and North Korea.
Obama has crafted an administration that has a Clinton brain inside an Obama face. Clinton I lost Russia for the West. Clinton II aka Obama I is on track to lose India.
While it is premature to draw conclusions on Obama’s policy towards India, his first year in office certainly did not carry forward his predecessor’s initiatives.
Getting the hard core Taliban to concede the fight without loss of face is preferable to destroying them. The latter course is rendered risky by the linkages between the Afghan Taliban, Pakistani Taliban and Punjabi Taliban and their penetration of the Pakistani state and society.
Obama’s signal that the United States seeks to exit in 18 months will be viewed with scepticism by fence sitters in Afghanistan who will identify the victor as the one who endures.
Ideally, ISAF and NATO should concentrate on urban population centres along with the ANA, and the ANA should also deploy outside the towns and cities to dominate the hinterland and crack down on Taliban controlled areas.
By giving away Asia to China on a platter, the Obama Administration’s posture undermines its traditional allies (Japan, South Korea, and Australia) as well as its new partners like India.
Long term thinking is necessary to ensure that the gains of the Singh-Obama Knowledge Initiative are successfully channelled into a Singh-Obama Innovation Economy Co-operation Initiative.
Apart from the reluctance to move beyond viewing the India-US relationship through the prism of US-China or even US-Pakistan ties, the Indian political leadership and the strategic community have so far failed to define India’s role in the growing partnership with the United States.