Report of Monday Morning Discussion on “Bangladesh’s Outlook towards Indo-Pacific”

Dr Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Bangladesh’s-outlook towards Indo-Pacific” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 June 2023. The session was chaired by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi and scholars of the Instituted participated.

Executive Summary

In the presentation on “Bangladesh's perspective on the Indo-Pacific region” its efforts to balance relations with China and the United States while aligning with India's Indian Ocean initiatives were highlighted.  The divergent views among countries regarding China's assertiveness and discusses Bangladesh's importance in the Bay of Bengal and the larger Indo-Pacific region were brought up. As per the speaker, Bangladesh is likely to align itself with the economic aspects of the Indo-Pacific while avoiding the defence and security aspects.

Detailed Report

Dr Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, initiated the discussion by drawing attention to Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook, stressing its importance in maintaining a balance between China and United States while aligning with India’s Indian Ocean initiatives. She also emphasised that Japan’s PM Kishida sees Bangladesh as a potential Industrial hub for supply chains.

Dr Anand Kumar began his presentation by giving a broader view on Bangladesh’s Indo-Pacific outlook. He emphasized how the Indo-Pacific strategy is championed by the United States as a response to China’s assertiveness. The speaker drew attention to the divergent view countries take regarding China's assertive behavior in the Indo-Pacific. Countries like the US, France, and Canada see China as a potential challenge and advocate for collective action to maintain a rule-based global order. In contrast, countries like South Korea, EU, and ASEAN adopt an inclusive approach, seeking to balance relationships and prioritize cooperation and economic ties.

On the United States, the speaker elaborated that the United States has recognised the need to include the economic dimension in the Indo-Pacific strategy, as not all nations will be interested in the security aspect. The US has introduced the Indo-Pacific Economic Framework for Prosperity (IPEF).Japan also has its own initiative, the Bay of Bengal Growth Belt. However, Bangladesh remains sceptical of Indo-Pacific strategy, as it is unwilling to be a part of a security alliance or purchase arms under it.

The speaker emphasised the significance of the Indo-Pacific Strategy by elaborating on Bangladesh’s role as a bridge between South and South East Asia. Bangladesh has expanded it’s maritime area which provides it convenient access to the Bay of Bengal, making it important in the larger Indo-Pacific region.

On China, the speaker emphasised that China has also constructed its pipeline from Myanmar. China has also financed and created two submarine bases in the Bangladesh. They have done it to change the security environment in the Indian Ocean region. China also has a presence in the Western Indian Ocean which is worrying for the United States and its allies.

The Speaker drew attention to Bangladesh which is a significant player in the Indian Ocean region and BIMSTEC, with a growing economy and potential to become a middle power. Bangladesh is strengthening its military and maintains friendly relations with the US, EU, and Quad members. The key Indo-Pacific players are interested in Bangladesh for their strategies to counterbalance China, and efforts have been made to improve US-Bangladesh relations over the past decade, including discussions on developing an Indo-Pacific corridor.

He further discussed the irritants in the US-Bangladesh relationship, including concerns over elections, human rights, media freedom, and Bangladesh's military ties with Russia and China. However, despite these issues, the broader engagement between the two countries shows positive progress. The US has employed "rapid fire diplomacy" to bring Bangladesh closer, but Bangladesh has its own priorities, such as the reinstatement of the Generalized System of Preferences facilities, removal of sanctions on RAB, extradition of Rashed Chowdhary, and increased US involvement in addressing the Rohingya issue.

Dr Kumar highlighted that once the US takes a step, its allies follow suit. Bangladesh is also part of Japan's vision of the Indo-Pacific and is seen as a potential partner by the US and its allies. However, Bangladesh is cautious about this due to its relationship with China. When China's foreign minister tried to pressure Bangladesh, the country assured China of its neutral stance. Bangladesh cannot afford to alienate China as it is its largest defence and trade supplier.

Western countries, especially the US, are crucial for Bangladesh, as it exports to the US and has a significant diaspora there. Bangladesh is transitioning from a low-income to a middle-income country and aims to maintain good relations with the West.

Dr Anand Kumar emphasized that Bangladesh has introduced its own open Indo-Pacific outlook, which aims to establish a free, open, peaceful, secure, and inclusive Indo-Pacific region. The document recognizes the significance of this region, considering its collective contribution to global GDP, international trade, climate improvement, technological advancements, and other key factors that shape Bangladesh's long-term interests. The document underscores the importance of renouncing and refraining from the use of force in international relations.

Additionally, it urges nations to adhere to relevant treaties of the United Nations and specifically encourages adherence to the United Nations Convention on the Law of the Sea (UNCLOS). The outlook’s objectives are derived from the guiding principle of strengthening mutual trust among nations, promoting dialogue, and ensuring peace and prosperity.

The Speaker explained that Dhaka has adopted a balanced approach to the Indo-Pacific region, viewing it as an economic opportunity while also maintaining relations with its largest trading partner, China. As Bangladesh moves closer to its 2024 elections, the perception of free and fair elections in the West will impact the response towards Bangladesh. With President Biden emphasizing the restoration of democracy, Bangladesh may seek diplomatic support from India and China while avoiding actions that could strain relations with China.

During his final remarks, the Speaker Bangladesh is likely to align itself with the economic part of the Indo-Pacific but it would stay clear of the defence and security part. It allows Bangladesh to navigate through the complex dynamics of the Indo-Pacific region and pursue its interests in a balance way.

Q&A Session

 Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy emphasized that Bangladesh is expected to focus more on the economic aspect of the Indo-Pacific and avoid getting involved in defence matters, although complete exclusion cannot be ruled out. Bangladesh relies heavily on China for trade and investments, while the US seeks to foster cooperation. India's engagement with Bangladesh is often misrepresented by both China and Bangladeshis who have gone to China. However, the declaration of the Bay of Bengal Initiative by the Japanese PM in the context of Japan's Indo-Pacific vision, in which Bangladesh plays a significant role, offers a potential positive outcome.

Maj. Gen. (Dr) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) expressed doubts about the accuracy of the map and the validity of the argument presented by the speaker regarding Bangladesh's classification as a middle power. He specifically inquired about the positions of the U.K. and Germany concerning Bangladesh's Indo-Pacific perspective. In reply, Dr Anand Kumar said that the maps had limited purpose and were shown to show where these countries are located.

Dr Ashok Behuria commented that Bangladesh is cautious about not aligning against China as it does not want to be on the wrong side of China's interests. He pointed out that China is more actively involved in the Myanmar issue compared to the United States. With the elections approaching, as the United States emphasizes the importance of free and fair elections, Bangladesh may require China's diplomatic support to navigate potential challenges and ensure its interests are upheld. He replied by saying that Bangladesh has come out with its own Indo-Pacific outlook to balance its relations.

Dr Swasti Rao stated that the European Union's global gateway initiative has achieved its initial objective, with South Asia, specifically Bangladesh, Nepal, and Bhutan, agreeing to collaborate on a renewable energy project. The aim is to establish a connection with India's North-Eastern region and asked to shed light on its significance. Dr Anand Kumar replied by saying many nations are showing interest in South-Asian countries.

Mrs. Sukanya Bhattacharjee posed a how will Bangladesh address the ongoing illegal trading of weapons in the cox bazaar area of the CHT (Chittagong Hill Tracts) Of Bangladesh. In reply, Dr Anand Kumar said that Chittagong's has a role in weapon trading, but the focus of the discussion was on war-related weaponry.

The report was prepared by Ms. Shreya Rai, Intern, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.