Report of Monday Morning Discussion on “Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Implications for Regional Security”

Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Armenia-Azerbaijan Conflict: Implications for Regional Security” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 June 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA.

Executive Summary

The conflict between Armenia and Azerbaijan spans ethnic and territorial issues over the disputed region of Nagorno-Karabakh (NK), inhabited mostly by ethnic Armenians. The presentation involved a comprehensive overview of its historical roots, recent developments, and the role of regional and extra-regional powers.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rajorshi Roy initiated the discussion by highlighting the genesis of the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. He emphasized the importance of analyzing the developments not only through the bilateral prism but also through the lens of geo-strategic and geo-economic competition unraveling in the region.

Dr. Jason Wahlang began his presentation by giving a broad overview of the current situation in the Nagorno-Karabakh region. He highlighted the recent instances of ceasefire violations reported by peacekeepers in the Lachin Corridor. This has led to fears of a renewed flare-up.

Dr. Wahlang proceeded to give a historical background of the conflict, starting from the creation of the Transcaucasia Soviet Socialist Republic (SSR). He highlighted the demand for independence of the Armenian majority population, living in Nagorno- Karabakh, from Azerbaijan in 1988 as a key factor in fuelling an all-out war post the collapse of the Soviet Union. Over time, there have been major and minor clashes with the largest, which led to an all-out war, being in 2020. It resulted in Azerbaijan regaining territory it had lost to Armenia in 1994.

The Speaker highlighted the strategic calculations of Yerevan, Baku, and Stepanakert. He observed that Yerevan has intrinsically viewed the region of Artsakh (Armenian term for Nagorno Karabakh) as one of its own on account of the majority Armenian population residing in Artsakh. This has led Armenia to assume the mantle of being the leading security provider to the region amidst its ideational connection with the people.

The Speaker also highlighted the traditional linkages of Armenian leadership with Nagorno-Karabakh, with the previous two Presidents being born in Nagorno-Karabakh. However, the current Prime Minister Nicol Pashinyan’s seemingly outsider links, having been born in Yerevan, and his recent statement that Armenia is ready to cede Nagorno-Karabakh to Azerbaijan has enraged the Armenian population.

On Baku, Dr. Wahlang referred to the international recognition of Nagorno- Karabakh as being part of Azerbaijan in shaping the country’s strategic outlook. The fact that even the Soviet Union incorporated Nagorno- Karabakh as part of Azerbaijan SSR burnishes Baku’s claim to Nagorno- Karabakh. He briefly mentions the idea of the Zangezur corridor and how it plays an important role in connecting Turkiye with Azerbaijan.

On Stepanakert, Dr. Wahlang observed that with the leadership of Stepanakert being predominantly Armenian, it is inevitable that they view the struggle against Azerbaijan as a struggle for their independence. However, their main concern, particularly since 2020, has been the treatment meted out by the Azeri population because the latter is gaining more ground in their territories. Meanwhile, there exists disappointment in Stepanakert about Yeravan’s recent policies towards Nagorno- Karabakh.

Moving on to the role of regional and extra-regional actors, Dr. Wahlang delved into the strategic calculations of Russia, Turkiye, Iran, the USA, and the European Union.

On Russia, Dr. Wahlang highlighted Russia’s historical connection with the conflict on account of the Soviet heritage, Moscow’s subsequent peace initiatives, and the Kremlin’s robust relationship with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. He referred to Armenia as being a part of CSTO and the EEU. In the last two decades, Russia has been at the forefront of attempts to forge a peace deal even though, ironically, it has also provided weapons to both sides.

On Turkiye, Dr. Wahlang referred to Turkey’s attempts at expanding its footprints in the Caucasus with its key regional partner being Azerbaijan. Turkey has extended economic and military support to Azerbaijan with Turkish military aid believed to be a key factor in Azerbaijan’s success in 2020. Meanwhile, Armenia has had a fractured relationship with Turkey since the Ottoman Period. It was only the recent earthquake and subsequent HADR operations which led to the opening of borders between the two nations for the first time in decades.

On Iran, the speaker highlighted Iran’s shared borders with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. He emphasized the strong Iranian support for Armenia. He also referred to the complicated relationship between Iran and Azerbaijan amidst their ongoing friction over the Azeri diaspora in Iran. Notably, Azerbaijan procures approximately 70 percent of its military supplies from Israel. The drones procured from Israel played a crucial role in Azerbaijan’s successes in 2020. Moreover, Iran remains concerned over growing pan-Turkism in the region which could dilute Iranian influence in its neighbourhood.

On the United States, Dr. Wahlang highlighted American participation in the OSCE Minsk Group as part of the efforts to find a peaceful solution to the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict. This group is co-chaired by France, Russia, and the United States. Dr. Wahlang felt that even though the US has limited influence in shaping outcomes in the region, Russia’s distraction on account of the conflict in Ukraine could tempt the US to expand its regional footprints.

On the European Union, Dr. Wahlang highlighted the organization’s cordial relations with both Armenia and Azerbaijan. He referred to both countries as being a part of the EU’s Eastern Partnership programme since 2009. He observed that the EU is a significant economic partner of Azerbaijan as well. He referred to the EU launching a mission to monitor the security of NK for two years. However, there exist apprehensions in Armenia about its efficacy in preventing future attacks by Azerbaijan.

Q&A Session

The Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) elaborated on the frozen conflicts in the region post the disintegration of the Soviet Union. He referred to growing conflicts around the world with people’s sense of identity contributing to the unrest.

Dr. Adil Rasheed observed that Iran is not the only reason for good relations between Israel and Azerbaijan. He also remarked on how Iran can benefit from the Turan Corridor even though at present it remains suspicious of NATO’s involvement. Agreeing with the observations, Dr. Wahlang emphasised that NATO’s involvement is largely due to Turkey’s membership of the military alliance.

Dr. Deepika Saraswat, highlighted Iran’s evolving approach towards the region. She observed that Iran remains “uncomfortable” with the irredentist nature of the situation, which affects them more than Russia or NATO. She concluded by saying that the conflict is moving in a completely new trajectory. Replying to this, Dr. Wahlang observed that Russia’s “soft approach” towards the conflict has given rise to further complexities even though Russia continues to be a key stakeholder.

Group Captain (Dr.) R.K. Narang (Retd), posed a question on the role of Pakistan in the conflict and the nature of the Pakistan-Azerbaijan relationship. Dr. Wahlang responded by highlighting the growing trilateral relationship between Pakistan, Azerbaijan and Turkey which brings Pakistan into the conflict fold.

Mr. Harshit Sharma posed a question on whether Israel opening an embassy in Baku could have an impact on the Armenia-Azerbaijan conflict. The speaker replied by highlighting the “good relations” between Israel and Azerbaijan and that Israel’s assistance to Azerbaijan, while appearing tactical, will benefit Azerbaijan.

The report was prepared by Mr. Karan Phular, Intern, Centre of Europe and Eurasia, MP-IDSA.