Report of Monday Morning Discussion on “Analysing the Nuclear Dynamics in East Asia”

Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Analysing the Nuclear Dynamics in East Asia” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 5 June 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

Although, numerically the overall nuclear weapons trend appears to be on a downward track, there exist reverse trajectory in East Asia. At a systemic level China is trying to compete with its strategic rival, the United States, vis-à-vis the nuclear domain, both in qualitative (technological advancement and precision missiles) and quantitative terms. At a regional level, the nuclear dynamics will substantially be impacted by the US extended nuclear deterrence. Japan and South Korea remain the threshold states with active deliberation over nuclear weapons introduction in the region. In recent times, they have tried to resolve bilateral disputes in order to align their strategies against a common threat. North Korea, despite rampant provocations, would maintain its regime security by not resorting to a pre-emptive strike on its neighbours. Thus, nuclear dynamism of the region would continue to keep the pot boiling for an unforeseeable future.

Detailed Report

Dr. Rajiv Nayan began the meeting with a synoptical analysis of the nuclear dynamics in the East Asian region and emerging contemporary issues. In his introductory remark, he briefly touched upon the nuclear priorities of governments of Japan and South Korea, and their immediate implication in terms of Chinese response.

Mr. Niranjan Oak began his presentation with the G7 joint statement on Nuclear Disarmament. He further contextualised the Chinese numerical enhancement of nuclear weapons with the overall reduction in nuclear warheads from more than 70,000 in 1986 to approx. 12,500 currently. With the background of North Korean incessant cruise, ballistic and hypersonic missile tests, Mr. Oak gave a comprehensive analysis of the East Asian countries with substantive military and technological capabilities.

As per US Nuclear Posture Review 2022, China is slated to increase the number of nuclear warheads to 1000 by 2030. The estimate is based on 250 missile silos which were discovered in 2021, and are predictably to be filled with Multiple Independent Reentry Vehicle (MIRV) missiles. In the midst, a possibility of bluff and ambiguity can also not be ignored. Mr. Oak described the wide range of ballistic, cruise, hypersonic missiles and other weapon delivery systems that China possesses, along with its ambitious modernisation plan juxtaposed with emerging technologies. Contextualising North Korean threats, Mr. Oak detailed North Korea’s military capabilities along with their pronouncements including no pre-emptive strike. Pyongyang is projected to increase its nuclear warheads by the end of this decade. It has further tried to enhance its survivability by diversifying its delivery platforms. Mr. Oak attributed the barrage of missile tests in 2022 and 2023 to potential causes such as acute food shortage impacting the economy, using tests as a bargaining chip to extract economic concessions from the west and preference to regime security.

South Korea President Yoon Suk Yeol’s interest in redeploying the nuclear weapons on its soil reflects increasing frustration with North’s aggression towards South. Mr. Oak attributed the timing to this nuclear utterance by South Korean President to increased provocation by North Korea with its missile tests, its sophistication and declining credibility of United States extended nuclear deterrence. The United States responded with forging ‘the ‘Washington Declaration’ in March 2023. The declaration includes the commitment of ROK to provide full conventional military support to the US nuclear or conventional operations. ROK further expressed its full commitment towards NPT. The United States, on the other hand, committed itself to strengthen the consultation process in nuclear planning and operations through the establishment of the Nuclear Consultative Group. These initiatives ensure that South Korea plays a supporting role in any operation with its conventional forces implying that command and control related to nuclear weapons stay completely with the US.

Mr. Oak further detailed Japan’s security dynamics in the East Asian geopolitical canvass. Japan’s National Security Strategy 2022 lists North Korean missile threats, increased defense budget of China and Taiwan’s quagmire as threats to Japanese security interests. Japan has already included counter-strike capabilities in its security strategies. Within five years, with the support of allies and partners, Japan intends to equip itself to defend its territories in case of foreign invasion. As a part of its ten years goal, Japan intends to disrupt and defeat the invasion much earlier and develop robust long range missile capabilities. Japan has begun changing its pacifist nature and adapting to deal with the changing security environment by increasing the share of ‘defense and other outlays’ spending to upto 2% of the GDP.

Chinese adventurism in Taiwan is bound to have repercussions for both Japan and the United States. In recent times China has increased its provocative activities with more missile launches, more naval activities and more central line crossing over Taiwan Strait, effectively establishing a new normal. To meet China’s challenge, Taiwan’s modest missile stockpile consists of anti-ship cruise missiles and short range ballistic missiles among others.

Mr. Oak concluded that the nuclear dynamics in the region continues to be volatile. This volatility is on account of Chinese rivalry with the United States, North Korea’s increasing missile tests, dwindling credibility of the US extended nuclear deterrence to its East Asian allies and escalating Taiwan crisis.

Dr. Rajiv Nayan commented on the advancement of hypersonic capabilities of China and North Korea at a time when most of the western world is struggling to acquire the capability. On the question of nuclearization of East Asia, he pointed out that Japan possesses enough fissile material to produce approx. 6000 nuclear warheads. He further pointed out that successive governments in Japan have refrained themselves from taking a political decision to acquire nuclear weapons. He further predicted a spiral effect as a result of Japan’s nuclear acquisition. Besides, he alluded to the dithering commitment of the United States to its East Asian allies that induces these countries to look for security in the nuclear option.   

Comment and Questions

The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), and scholars from the Institute contributed to the discussion. In his remarks, Ambassador Chinoy complimented the presentation for its crisp, precise and usefulness of factual information. Ambassador Chinoy further suggested the need for focussing on Japanese nuclear debate and its implications on South Korea in particular and Korean peninsula in general. The strategic duality reflected in the security alliance between the US and its two East Asian partners, on one hand, and ambition to acquire nuclear weapons both in Seoul and Tokyo on the other, should also be examined. Ambassador Chinoy commented on Japanese Prime Minister Fumio Kishida’s alignment (or dis-alignment) with nuclear weapons given his ancestral connection with Hiroshima, one of the cities to be bombed by nuclear weapons. He further asked how the NPT provisions explain the transfers of certain kind of fissile material for non-military purposes. He also expressed his desire to understand the Chinese reaction to the AUKUS trilateral agreement for the transfers of nuclear submarines.

Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.) highlighted the strong abhorrence to nuclear weapons and nuclear reactors in Japan. Further, he asked about the implications of various missile and defense systems on South Asian security dynamics with special reference to the prospects of Indian Ballistic missile defense systems.

In the question and answer session, issues such as credibility of claims of defense systems and its battle effectiveness, Chinese tactical nuclear weapons, Indian ballistic missile defense system and China’s response to the AUKUS deal were taken up.

Mr. Niranjan Oak pointed out the rhetorical approach of the Chinese with respect to any security alliance or military build-up in East Asian region. He further clarified that AUKUS is not a violation of NPT as it commits the transfer of nuclear propelled submarine and not the nuclear weapon carrying submarine. He also pointed out the South Asian security dynamics in terms of the China-Pakistan nexus and India’s involvement with minilateral groupings like Quad, among others.

The report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst, Internal Security Centre. MP-IDSA.