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Report on State of Nuclear Disarmament in the World Jointly organised by MP-IDSA and Indian Pugwash Society	September 01, 2023			Round Table	On 1 September 2023, Manohar Parrikar-Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) in collaboration with the Indian Pugwash Society (IPS) organised a Roundtable on the “State of Nuclear Disarmament in the World.” The roundtable was Chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA and consisted of eminent experts Prof. Amitabh Mattoo (Professor, CIPOD, SIS, JNU), Lt. Gen. Amit Sharma (Retd.) (former Commander-in-Chief of India’s Strategic Forces Command), and Dr. Rajiv Nayan (Senior Research Associate, MP-IDSA). Scholars from the MP-IDSA were in attendance, as were distinguished guests from the IPS. Executive Summary The topic of nuclear disarmament remains very relevant in today’s climate. Nuclear rhetoric by Russia against Ukraine and the West has rekindled the global discussion on nuclear weapons, and raised questions on efforts to achieve disarmament. 78 years after the first atomic bomb fell on Hiroshima, a nuclear weapons-free world remains a pipe dream, most poignantly marked by the modernisation of arsenals being undertaken by countries such as Pakistan and China. Deterrence is considered indispensable for most nuclear weapons states, while countries such as North Korea also see them as a means to ensure regime survival. At the same time, the acquisition of weapons of mass destruction (WMDs) by non-state actors is a growing risk. Emergent risks, such as the emergence of AI and the Internet of Things (IoT), further make it imperative to promulgate joint initiatives, yet consensus on disarmament remains elusive due to core political, economic and strategic divergences among the key actors. Detailed Report Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy delivered the Welcome Remarks where he introduced the Speakers, and laid the context for the Roundtable. He then made some introductory remarks, wherein he noted that the topic of nuclear disarmament remains very relevant in today’s climate. The Joint Statement issued by the five permanent members of the United Nations Security Council last year emphasised that nuclear weapons are relevant only to deter aggression and prevent war. He also noted that 78 years after the first atomic bomb fell on Hiroshima, a nuclear weapons-free world remains a pipe dream, most poignantly marked by the modernisation of arsenals being undertaken by Pakistan and China. Amb. Chinoy went on to enumerate the key disarmament efforts made by countries so far, and introduced the audience to some of the risk factors that surround the issue, such as non-state actors obtaining nuclear weapons, states seeking nuclear weapons as a means to ensure regime survival, and the emergence of critical new technologies such as artificial intelligence and big data that significantly complicate nuclear strategy planning. In light of all these events, the Chair pointed out, India has continued to maintain its position of No First Use (NFU) of nuclear weapons. India continues to have an unblemished record on non-proliferation, and has floated a host of UN initiatives that are still discussed by various bodies in that organisation. Above all, India is clear that “now is not the age of war”; peaceful dialogue is necessary to solve any and all conflicts. After setting the stage, he then turned over the floor to Prof. Amitabh Mattoo to provide his perspective. Prof. Mattoo commenced by demarcating the three areas on which he would reflect. These were: What is the Pugwash Society, and what is its role? What is the current state of nuclear disarmament? What is the relevance of these thoughts on India? The Speaker then took the audience on a brief tour of the history of the Pugwash Conference, commencing in 1955, when British philosopher Bertrand Russell and physicist Albert Einstein wrote a manifesto-cum-letter to the US President outlining the nightmare of nuclear war. This manifesto essentially became the raison d’etre of Pugwash, when twelve scientists got together at the eponymous town in Canada, and adopted the manifesto as their mission statement, setting up the Pugwash Conference as a result. The aim of the organisation was to “rediscover our humanity at the cusp of the apocalypse”. In India, the Atomic Energy Commission of India was key in supporting the aims of Pugwash, while Shri K. Subramanyam brought it to MP-IDSA during his tenure as Director of this organisation. Turning to the state of nuclear disarmament in the world, the Speaker informed the audience that the “Doomsday clock” maintained by the Bulletin of Atomic Scientists is the closest it has ever been in history to midnight (which signifies global extinction after nuclear war) after the Russian threat to use nuclear weapons against Ukraine. Looking at history, however, the Speaker noted that the Cuban missile crisis of 1962 brought the clock to two minutes before midnight, but despite the threats, the world survived. This was characterised by the Speaker as heartening news. The Speaker highlighted the point that the number of warheads in the world is at an all-time low: whereas the Cold War period saw approximately 60,000 warheads held by the nuclear weapons states (NWS), now there are approximately 13,000. Of these, the bulk are held by the US and Russia, whereas the other nuclear powers combined form not even a fraction of this tally. Also, before the Nuclear Non- Proliferation Treaty (NPT) was signed, it was commonly assumed that 25-30 nuclear weapons states would exist, but because of the NPT, very few countries possess the capabilities necessary to produce nuclear weapons. Meanwhile, several countries have given up their nuclear weapons programmes, and the NPT has been extended indefinitely. However, the Speaker noted, the world is still not a safer place. He cited leading nuclear strategy researcher Scott Sagan’s contention that complex organisational structures create redundancies, which can interfere in nuclear decision-making, by generating delegation issues. On the other hand, having a single key person is also dangerous, as it can create unaccountable power structures within the state structure. Another concern is the threat of use of nukes, such as the one issued by Russia in 2022, marking the first time such a threat has been issued since US General Douglas MacArthur’s threat to use nuclear weapons on North Korea during the Korean War. A third issue revolves around the modernisation of Pakistan and China’s nuclear arsenals. Though India has hitherto maintained a consistent posture of NFU, with an emphasis on developing a nuclear triad (with ground-, air- and sea-launched nuclear weapons) to ensure minimum vulnerability, is there enough reason to revise this nuclear doctrine given the moves by China and Pakistan? Finally, before wrapping up, the Speaker noted that in an age of realism, India is at risk of forgetting its wisdom from the past. In particular, he pointed to Lord Krishna’s advice to Arjuna on the eve of the latter’s use of the Brahmastra (the ultimate weapon) to destroy his enemies, which the Speaker argued could be especially valuable in determining a truly Indian way forward. The Chair thanked Prof. Mattoo for his perspective, and invited Lt. Gen. Amit Sharma (retd) to offer his perspective. Lt. Gen. Sharma began by outlining the three issues listed below which would be key to the rest of his discussion. The logic of non-use of nuclear weapons, Why disarmament is not moving forward, and What is the way forward. The Speaker cited historian Michael Jordan on the logic of the Allies while they were planning their attacks. The Speaker also cited Thomas Schelling as propounding that the logic of nuclear restraint is a realisation of the enormity of what the decision to bomb Hiroshima entailed. He gave the example of the Cuban missile crisis, where despite significant pressure on both leaders from their respective staffs, President John F. Kennedy and Premier Nikita Khrushchev ultimately backed down from pressing the nuclear button. Even in Vietnam, the US ultimately did not use nukes, accepting a “strategic” defeat instead, because of the effect of the decision made in 1945 to use the bomb. Thus, the nuclear decision is not a “gung-ho” decision, and checks and balances must exist. However, over time, these checks and balances are fading, as younger generations emerge without having personally experienced nuclear war. The Speaker offered the outcomes of some surveys of youth in the United States, where youth in both Japan and the United States were unable to answer basic questions about the events of 1945. Therefore, the Speaker argued that it is high time to create an awareness of nuclear holocaust among young people so that the memory and knowledge of the effects of the atomic bomb do not fade away. In terms of disarmament the Speaker noted that that there have been many treaties over the years, but there is doubt as to their effectiveness. In 1986, there were 66,000 nukes in the world, while today there are 12,700 nukes. Yet, each of these 12,700 weapons can destroy the world many times over, as they are more lethal, more accurate and more destructive. These days there are 16 warheads in each missile, each on a megaton scale of destructive yield (whereas the Hiroshima and Nagasaki weapons only had kiloton yields). Thus, the world faces a grave danger if somebody decides to use a nuclear weapon in today’s day and age. Disarmament is thus a good idea, but an idealistic one. The Speaker noted that since only nine countries possess nuclear weapons today, the nuclear taboo seems to be intact. He also gave the example of South Africa, which gave up its weapons of its own accord. On the other hand, the Ukraine War’s impact on countries like South Korea and Japan’s nuclear posture remains an open question. The intent of these countries to nuclearize is debatable, but public support is there in both countries. Will anyone get rid of their nuclear weapons? The Speaker noted that as nuclear weapons bring power and prestige, no country is likely to let go of its trump card. Even if any were to do so, there is still the problem of trust to deal with: some nuclear weapons might be kept hidden away, while the technological knowledge would still exist. Thus, while all countries support denuclearisation in their doctrine, but the chances of it actually happening are slim. Thus, the way forward might lie with risk reduction and restraint. The Speaker offered some suggestions in this field, especially noting the effect of public awareness using visual media as a powerful tool, with short clips on effects of nukes as a possible way to reach younger audiences. The aim should be to affect young people, so that glib talk of tactical nuclear weapons and limited bombing are exposed for the fallacies they are. Another good move would be to have a declared nuke policy. The Speaker noted that when it comes to nuclear weapons, surprise is not a good thing. Thus it is always wise to declare a country’s intentions in advance. In the ideal case, the Speaker noted that a universal NFU should be the next step in building trust, as it is not too difficult a step for countries to take. The majority of NWSs are proponents of restraint. If these six powers can be brought together to agree on universal NFU, the ensuing mutual vulnerability would create detente. Then, it would be a matter of trying to build up trust and restraint. With these words, Gen. Sharma ended his remarks. The Chair thanked the Speaker for his remarks, and invited Dr. Rajiv Nayan to share his perspective. Dr. Nayan started by discussing the new film on Robert Oppenheimer, and argued that Oppenheimer stands today as a symbol of the dilemma of nuclear weapons. The end of the Cold War raised some ideas that nuclear weapons were now going to be a thing of the past. However, the current situation has raised other questions, principal among which is whether nuclear disarmament is feasible or desirable. The Speaker argued that nuclear disarmament is desirable, as all powers adhere to that norm with some exceptions. However, the accomplishment of the goal remains a far-fetched idea. He offered a critique of the Treaty on the Prohibition of Nuclear Weapons (TPNW), signed in 2019, and also outlined India’s objections to the treaty. Why is there no disarmament in the world today? Despite there being no fear of reprisal, no state has used nuclear weapons in its conflicts. This, the Speaker argued, has created an environment of complacency. The NPT crisis also played a part in this, as it has become difficult to getting an outcome document approved in recent years. The Tenth Review Conference faced the disappointment of issuing no outcome document due to Russia’s opposition. However, since no non-nuclear weapons state has left the NPT, it can be said that the regime is in crisis but not collapsing. Thirdly, nuclear weapons, as of now, pose no personal threat to the great powers. The Speaker offered here the examples of the Chemical Weapons Convention and the Biological Weapons Convention. The Chemical Weapons Convention was negotiated and finalised only when the United States was afraid of the countries of West Asia acquiring such weapons. On the other hand, the Biological Weapons Convention was concluded when the leading powers realised the redundancy of biological weapons in the national stockpile. Fourthly, the US in its recent Nuclear Posture Review raised its concern that several states may decide to go nuclear in response to threats from one or other of the great powers, a sea change in attitudes from a nation that was previously ruthless in the suppression of nuclear weapons. Fifth, disarmament as currently conceived is a project championed mainly by civil society in new countries. Western civil society fails to push the disarmament agenda among Western nuclear weapons countries. They are thus widely perceived to have used their rhetoric to disarm other countries, not the key Western countries. On the topic of China’s NFU, the Speaker argued that there is a gap between precept and practice. Informally, China is revisiting its NFU policy. Since 2004, apparently, an informal doctrine is in circulation, which looks like a replica of the Russian doctrine as for the conditions to use nuclear weapons. However, the Chinese currently deny the very existence of such a document. It is thus an open question whether China would go for launch on warning if the situation is right, a hypothesis the Speaker noted was possible. There would also be the complex issue of whether a joint force of Chinese and Pakistani soldiers fighting a war with India in future would be willing to countenance the use of nuclear weapons, given that Pakistan does not have NFU as its doctrine, whereas China does. While concluding, the Speaker cautioned that India needs to send a tough message at this juncture if it is to ensure that such a development does not come to pass. Amb. Chinoy thanked Dr. Nayan for his remarks, and then opened the floor for questions and comments. Amb. Saurabh Kumar asked whether there was anything in the offing regarding the integration of AI and nuclear weapons systems. He also wished to know the essence of the US’ statements given in its NPR, as cited by Dr. Nayan. Dr. Rajiv Nayan answered Amb. Kumar’s question on the NPR and US position by informing the audience that one paragraph in the document mentions events in Ukraine causing a rethink on denuclearisation among countries. This can be interpreted as saying that countries today have a powerful rationale for nuclearisation. He also answered Amb. Kumar’s question on AI and nuclear weapons by noting that the issue was currently being considered, and nothing practical had emerged yet. Gp. Cpt. Rajiv K. Narang, Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA, asked whether it was true that China has NFU only against countries with which it does not have a border. Lt. Gen. Sharma answered Gp. Cpt. Narang’s question by informing the audience that China’s NFU holds to everyone without exception. He added that though China is not believed on this point, there is a logic to it, as the Chinese are following Mao’s line on credible minimum deterrence (CMD). The modernisation and expansion of their arsenal comes out of a need to develop enough weapons to achieve CMD. With that, the Chair ended the discussion with a Vote of Thanks. The report was prepared by Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.
Report of Monday Morning Meeting on “The Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan”	September 18, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA (MP-IDSA), spoke on “The Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 18 September 2023. Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Research Fellow, MP-IDSA, moderated the session and the scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The arrest of PTI leader and former Prime Minister Imran Khan has intensified Pakistan's political turmoil. It represents an effort by Pakistan’s influential military to keep Mr. Khan, who remains immensely popular among the youth, out of the upcoming electoral exercise. Prior to his arrest in May, Khan had resorted to open accusations against the top brass of the Army for his removal. However, the violence following his arrest gave the establishment a much-needed excuse to crack down on Pakistan Tehreek-e-Insaf (PTI). With the approval of the new census and the dissolution of the Assembly in early August, the debate over the timing of the election has intensified. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashok Behuria offered a brief overview of the recent political developments in Pakistan. He underlined the importance of the appointment of Qazi Faez Isa as the new Chief Justice of Pakistan. He said that Justice Isa might have had issues with Imran Khan and the establishment, but he had all along been an upright judge throughout his judicial career. He analysed that a lot will depend on how he discharges his constitutional duties in the coming days. Dr. Behuria argued that the military was determined to sideline Imran Khan and the PTI at any cost. He stated that the situation was compounded by the ongoing economic crisis, marked by a depreciating currency and surging electricity bills and petrol prices. Having laid the background, he invited the Speaker to deliver his address for a more comprehensive examination of these critical developments. Dr. Ashish Shukla started with an introduction to Pakistan’s multifaceted political crisis. He argued that unlike other countries, Pakistan never learns from a crisis and that is why, ever since its inception, it has been struggling to cope with multiple crises. He underscored the turbulent state of Pakistan's economy, marked by eroding business confidence, households struggling to pay their electricity and food bills. He noted that Pakistan narrowly averted an economic default in late June 2023 when IMF agreed to dispense $3 bn as part of an earlier agreement in 2019. After this, it secured $1 bn from China and $2 bn from Saudi Arabia. Dr. Shukla remarked that the army was instrumental in bringing Imran Khan to power. However, in due course of time, for several reasons, he fell out of favour with the powerful establishment. His inability to deliver good governance created a rift between the government and the army, which later widened and culminated in his removal from power. Sensing the growing rift, the opposition was quick to bring a no-confidence motion in the national assembly, which Imran Khan could not get through and was defeated. He blamed his downfall on a conspiracy hatched by the establishment's top brass. The Speaker highlighted Imran Khan's failed attempts to force the ruling elites to an early election. First, his MNAs resigned en mass from the National Assembly; later, he prematurely dissolved Provincial Assemblies in Punjab and Khyber Pakhtunkhwa. Dr. Shukla also discussed the judicial cushion Chief Justice Umar Ata Bandial offered to Imran Khan. With the same token, he also mentioned that with the retirement of Chief Justice Bandial, the judicial cover had gone. Dr. Shukla explained how, despite the Supreme Court's judgement to conduct an election in Punjab on 14 May, the PDM Government locked horns with the judiciary instead of implementing the order. It did not allocate the necessary budget, and the army also expressed its inability to provide the required security personnel for the smooth conduct of the election. It was both a violation of the Constitution and the Supreme Court judgement. In case of premature dissolution of the Assembly, the Constitution requires the State to conduct an election within 90 days. A similar situation has been emerging again. The National Assembly was dissolved on 9 August, but as of now, elections have not been announced. Some PML-N leaders say the election will be held in the first week of February. However, the election commission has not issued any timeline. Meanwhile, Imran Khan has been re-arrested and put behind bars after a session court found him guilty in the Toshakhana case and sentenced him to 3 years in prison. Despite getting relief from the Islamabad High Court, Imran Khan remains in jail as he has been arrested in the Cypher Case. The establishment is determined to keep him in jail on one or the other charges. Dr. Shukla concluded his presentation by underlining that the upcoming election is going to be the test of the army’s predominance in Pakistani politics. Furthermore, he noted that Imran Khan's fate will depend on how incumbent Chief Justice Faez Isa acts. He underscored the intricate interplay of military and civilian forces in Pakistan's political dynamics, highlighting the complexities surrounding upcoming elections and the role of key stakeholders. Comments and Questions The floor was opened for remarks and questions. The Moderator, Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, echoed the Speaker's perspectives about the upcoming elections in Pakistan. He highlighted the nation's economic challenges and internal instability. External powers like Saudi Arabia, the UAE, the United States, and China might prevent a complete financial collapse of Pakistan. He reiterated that scholars should look beyond mainstream media to understand Pakistan's political dynamics completely. Further, the scholars made some noteworthy points about solving Pakistan's ongoing political problems by reinforcing democratic institutions, fostering political discourse, enacting economic reforms, tackling security concerns, promoting civil-military cooperation, and improving the education system. The session ended with a unanimous agreement that attaining enduring political stability and efficient governance in Pakistan is a complex, long-range endeavour requiring commitment from all stakeholders. Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M., Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Visit of Western Norway University of Applied Sciences Delegation to MP-IDSA	September 13, 2023		1030 to 1300 hrs	Other	A nine-member delegation from the Western Norway University of Applied Sciences visited Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on 13 September 2023 for an interaction. The scholars of MP-IDSA were in attendance. Executive Summary The session explored the common areas of interest between India and Norway. The agenda focused on several key aspects, including the exploration of shared interests in the realm of renewable (non-traditional) energy sources. The interaction delved deeply into the significance of exploring clean energy sources and emphasised the importance of researchers giving priority to clean and sustainable energy solutions. It also highlighted the necessity for collaboration and briefly touched upon ongoing collaborative efforts between India and Norway in this regard. Detailed Report Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow at the MP-IDSA, initiated the conversation by providing an overview of the Institute's history, its goals, and its mission. He also highlighted the Institute's longstanding collaborative history with Norway and various other nations. Subsequently, Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang, Senior Fellow at MP-IDSA, shared his insights regarding India's objective of establishing itself as a leading hub for drone technology by the year 2030. He underscored the pivotal role that drones play in diverse sectors, including agriculture, disaster management, and commerce. He observed that the majority of the drone industry is currently driven by private sector entities. He illuminated the key features of the Drone Rules, 2021. He explained how these rules stimulated development of policies and procedures for pilot certification, the assignment of Unique Identification Numbers (UIN) to each drone, insurance coverage, and certification by the Quality Council of India. He acknowledged that there was initially reluctance to open the skies for private players. However, over time, the situation has evolved in India. Presently, India can proudly claim to have 28 type-certified drone models, 66 drone training schools, 6,600 drone pilots and 10,700 UINs. Notably, the Indian Institute of Technology, Kanpur, has developed a comprehensive course on drone technology offering an M.Tech program in Unmanned Aerial Systems (UAS) Engineering. To facilitate drone operations, the Indian airspace has been divided into green, yellow, and red zones. The red zone is specifically identified as a no-drone area, where drone activities can only be conducted with prior permission from the Central Government. Notably, over 90% of the Indian airspace falls within the green zone. DigitalSky, an online platform hosted by the Directorate General of Civil Aviation (DGCA), has introduced a single-window system for the approval and management of activities related to unmanned aircraft systems (UAS) in India. Drones have played a pivotal role in the SVAMITVA initiative, a Central Sector Scheme of the Ministry of Panchayati Raj, aimed at establishing property ownership in rural regions through the mapping of land parcels using drone technology. This initiative has deployed approximately 1,671 drone teams across 31 States and Union Territories in India. Moreover, drones have also been instrumental in trials for the delivery of life saving drugs. Indian startups have played a major role in the evolution of the Indian drone industry. Furthermore, Gp. Capt. Narang observed that the Indian Government has formulated a policy for the export of Drones/Unmanned Aerial Vehicles (UAVs) for civilian purposes. Notably, three drone startups are now listed on the stock market, underscoring the significant growth potential within the sector. The Indian Institutes of Technology (IITs) located in Kanpur and Chennai, along with their dedicated incubation cells, have played a pivotal role in fostering the growth of drone startups aimed at tackling a wide array of challenges. India has also recognised the uniqueness of its requirements and aims to evolve into a manufacturing ecosystem that contributes to the global supply chain. Furthermore, Gp. Capt. Narang highlighted the potential domains for technological collaboration in the drone sector, including unmanned traffic management, advanced air mobility, secure communication, command and control systems, electronic components, Internal Combustion engines, and hydrogen, solar and other new power sources for drones. On the Norwegian side, Geir Kåre Resaland, who serves as the Pro-Rector for Regional Development and Pro-Rector for Research at the Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, provided an introduction to the university, shedding light on its history, goals, and objectives. He emphasized the university's commitment to fostering collaboration in research and education at the local, national, and international levels. Furthermore, Professor Dhayalan Velauthapillai, whose research centers on the potential of nanomaterials in generating clean energy, underscored the imperative of ensuring energy security. The importance of energy security was accentuated by the energy crisis Europe faced in 2022. Professor Velauthapillai stressed that the escalating energy demands of the future are inevitable, making it imperative for researchers to prioritise clean and sustainable energy sources. Additionally, he highlighted how solar cell technologies hold promise for meeting future energy needs. However, he also pointed out challenges, such as the monopoly over the supply chain, predominantly held by China in this context. Monopolisation of a critical technology poses significant challenges, and both the European Union and the United States have initiated efforts to address this issue. Considering that the development of clean energies, like solar cell technology, requires substantial capital investment, African and Asian countries are likely to face hurdles in this regard. Professor Velauthapillai emphasised the necessity for global collaboration in developing new types of solar cells and other clean technologies to address these challenges collectively. Furthermore, he underscored the ongoing collaborative initiatives between India and Norway in the field of hydrogen production. He also shed light on the university's exchange programs, which facilitate knowledge sharing among international students. In addition, he emphasised the importance of integrating Machine Learning and Artificial Intelligence into various academic departments, recognising their vital role in shaping the future across various fields and industries. Subsequently, Nanthini Nagarajah, a PhD scholar at the university, presented her research on sustainability transitions within the context of a developing country, using Sri Lanka as a case study. She placed significant emphasis on the pivotal role played by the diaspora, specifically the Sri Lankan Tamil diaspora, in knowledge creation and exchange. Nanthini highlighted how the diaspora acts as a crucial coupling mechanism, facilitating connections between the global and local spheres through informal networks. She particularly emphasised the importance of networks such as Higher Education and Research Collaboration on Nanomaterials for Clean Energy Technologies (HRNCET) and Advanced Nanomaterials for Clean Energy and Health Applications (ANCEHA). Questions and Comments Following the presentations, there was an interactive session with questions and comments from the participants. Dr. Sinha pointed out how the Indian Government has implemented various policies to harness the potential of the Indian diaspora. In response, Ms. Ruchita Beri, a Consultant at MP-IDSA, underscored the significance of the diaspora as both a cultural and strategic asset to a country. Gp. Capt. Narang delved into the challenges associated with green energy production, particularly concerning hydrogen, where achieving the requisite temperature is a significant hurdle. He also discussed the future prospects of hydrogen and solar cell technology within the drone sector. Additionally, he stressed the importance of collaborative efforts and the necessity for joint ownership of intellectual property to overcome these challenges effectively. Jonathan Økland, an Associate Professor at the Department of Mechanical & Marine Engineering, emphasised that researchers are actively collaborating in their field, often working together on research papers. Notably, the industry is playing a crucial role in funding many of these research endeavors. Industry presents problems to the universities, and researchers work on finding solutions. This collaboration has also led to companies funding PhD programs and other research initiatives. Professor Velauthapillai elaborated on the challenges associated with hydrogen shipping and how they are actively working with Indian universities to develop materials that can facilitate the production of green hydrogen. Additionally, he discussed the potential of combining supercapacitors with batteries as a means to generate energy, showcasing innovative approaches to energy production and storage. A notable collaborative effort between an Indian Institution, the Coimbatore Institute of Technology, and the Western Norway University of Applied Sciences, commenced its joint academic and research initiatives in 2010. The first Memorandum of Understanding (MoU) between these two institutions was formally established in 2011. The research groups from both sides have been actively engaged in collaborative work, focusing on the modeling, synthesis, and characterisation of nanomaterials specifically designed for applications in solar cell technology. The delegation highlighted how the internal structure within the university plays a crucial role in facilitating researchers with patent and technology transfer agreements. This structure helps streamline the process of transferring research findings into practical applications and commercialization. Gp. Capt. Narang observed that India ’s Global Innovation & Technology Alliance (GITA) is a suitable platform for global partners to establish technology collaboration with start-ups and industries of two countries. Dr. Sinha concluded the discussion by emphasising the instrumental role of MP-IDSA in facilitating technology-related collaborative efforts and its commitment to bridging the gap between scientific advancements and policy formulation. Report was prepared by Mr. Rohit Kumar Sharma, Research Analyst, Strategic Technologies Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on “The Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan”	September 18, 2023		1000 hrs	Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will speak on “The Ongoing Political Crisis in Pakistan” at the Monday Morning Meeting which will be held on 18 September 2023 at 10 AM. The venue is Seminar Hall I, Second Floor. Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will be the moderator. Ms. Sneha M, Research Analyst, will be the rapporteur.	South Asia
Monday Morning Meeting on “15th BRICS Summit”	August 21, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on the “15th BRICS Summit” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 21 August 2023. The session was moderated by Mr. Mohanasakthivel J, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The presentation by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar on BRICS highlighted its evolution from BRIC to BRICS, the group's focus on global governance inequalities, and its potential to challenge the established world order. BRICS supports a rule-based international order while fostering a non-Western identity. The 15th BRICS Summit's significance lies in partnerships with Africa, addressing green transition, education, trade, recovery, and multilateralism. The possibilities of BRICS expansion and a common currency were explored. India's participation in BRICS aligns with pursuing strategic autonomy and geopolitical equilibrium. The group acts as a platform for India to advocate Global South solidarity, multipolarity, and reformed multilateralism. Detailed Report The discussion was initiated by Mr. Mohanasakthivel J, who emphasised the commencement of the inaugural BRICS Summit in 2009. According to him, throughout the last 14 years, each leader has taken an active part in the BRICS Summits, even amid the pandemic. BRICS represents 41% of the global population, 31% of the world's GDP, and 16% of worldwide trade, allowing for a comparison of its performance with that of other institutions. Over 40 countries are expressing interest in becoming part of BRICS. Dr. Rajeesh Kumar began his presentation by highlighting that the term "BRIC" was coined by economist Jim O'Neill in 2001, reflecting the growth potential of emerging economies. The acronym initially included Brazil, Russia, India, and China (BRIC), which evolved to BRICS with South Africa's inclusion in 2010. Annual Summits of the group started in 2011. The presentation underscored that BRICS functions as a forum aimed at addressing global governance inequalities and encompasses an ambitious agenda that mirrors the increasing influence and interests of emerging powers. Dr. Kumar said that over time, BRICS demonstrated superiority over G7 economies in terms of GDP (PPP), and the grouping endorses an alternative, multipolar world order. Dr. Kumar highlighted that BRICS takes a stance that supports a rule-based liberal international order (LIO) while emphasizing sovereignty and non-intervention. This positions BRICS to foster a non- western identity and solidarity. The group's interactions with the United States influences its negotiations, indicating its aspiration for an alternative, multipolar world order within the existing LIO. The 15th BRICS Summit holds significant importance, focusing on "BRICS and Africa: Partnership for Growth, Development, and Inclusive Multilateralism." The Summit's priorities encompass equitable transitions, education, the African Continental Free Trade Area, post-pandemic recovery, and strengthening of multilateralism. Topics of discussion range from expansion and local currency fundraising to economic cooperation and Africa-centric issues. Notably, the 15th BRICS Summit is the first in-person meeting post-COVID. The absence of Russian President Putin poses diplomatic and legal challenges for South Africa. However, this absence offers BRICS the opportunity to concentrate on key issues, thereby showing the group's maturity. Regarding expansion, with over 40 countries expressing interest and 23 formally applying for membership, Dr. Kumar noted that the possibility of expansion is high. The idea of expansion can be traced back to South Africa's outreach in 2013 and China's introduction of the BRICS Plus concept in 2017. While all five members support expansion, challenges involve accession criteria, internal contradictions, and differing African positions. Dr. Kumar also highlighted the limited potential for a common BRICS currency, focusing on reducing US dollar reliance due to historical sanctions. This involves boosting local currency transactions to decrease dependency. Reduced USD usage in trade settlements is noted, supported by tools like BRICS Pay for bilateral local currency transactions. This shift reflects BRICS' strategic response to enhance economic autonomy in the face of external pressures. Dr. Kumar further explored India's strategic stance within BRICS, highlighting its pursuit of strategic autonomy, geopolitical balancing, and roles in combating terrorism and addressing climate change. India's positive response to BRICS, despite growing friendship with the West underscores its commitment to cooperation within the group and the multipolar world order. In conclusion, Dr. Kumar said that despite potential weakening, BRICS remains a functional entity driven by common economic interests. Its unity originates from shared economic goals rather than a uniform political vision. The enduring objectives of representing developing countries, reforming global governance, and fostering economic growth remain fundamental. While expansion prospects remain on the card and the creation of a BRICS-specific currency seems improbable, the core values and missions of BRICS continue to guide its path in the intricate landscape of international cooperation. Q&A Session Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, commended the presentation and raised a query about the current relevance of BRICS. He also remarked on the proliferation of various global alliances, noting that creating groups solely for the purpose of formation diminishes their significance. He highlighted that groups like G77 do not necessarily represent shared common objectives. He cautioned against BRICS leaning towards an anti-western stance rather than a non-western one, necessitating careful consideration. Regarding expansion, he pointed out that the countries aspiring for BRICS membership often align with China on various international resolutions, counter to Western interests. In response, Dr. Kumar concurred with the Director General's remark and expressed that the enlargement of BRICS is detrimental to India's interests. Dr. Rajiv Nayan, Senior Research Associate, asked how BRICS differs from SCO as a non-western multilateral grouping. Group Captain (Dr.) Rajiv Kumar Narang, Senior Fellow, raised queries about BRICS expansion, particularly India's relationship with the countries which officially applied for the membership. He also asked about the scope of India-Brazil collaboration in the aeronautics sector. Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, inquired about any forthcoming developments as Modi and Xi reconnect during this Summit after years. Mr Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst, inquired whether the expansion of BRICS could contribute to bipolarity in the global world order. Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, explored the possibility of India utilising the IBSA (India, Brazil, and South Africa) trilateral framework within BRICS to counter China. Dr. Rajeesh Kumar gave a detailed explanation to the queries and comments raised by the participants. The report has been prepared by Mr. Mohan Singh Dhangar, Research Intern, East Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.
Monday Morning Meeting on “India’s Moon Program”	August 28, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Ajey Lele (Retd), Consultant, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “India’s Moon Program” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 28 August 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. The scholars of MP-IDSA were in attendance. Executive Summary India's space journey began on 21 November 1963, with the launch of a US Nike Apache sounding rocket from Thumba near Thiruvananthapuram. Following this, the Indian Space Program went through various phases, the latest being the moon program. The discussion also highlighted the differences between Chandrayaan 1, Chandrayaan 2, and Chandrayaan 3 Missions, and shed light on India's commitment to using space technology for societal betterment and knowledge advancement rather than merely competing with more technologically advanced nations. This approach aligns with Sarabhai's original vision and emphasizes India's unique and innovative contributions to global challenges through space technology. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Lele elaborated on the beginning of the Indian Space Program. The nation embarked on its celestial journey on 21 November 1963, when the US Nike Apache sounding rocket took off from Thumba, near Thiruvananthapuram. This maiden step epitomised the visionary aspirations of Dr. Vikram Sarabhai, who prioritised the quest for solutions to societal issues over any desire to outpace advanced nations in the space race. Dr. Lele also elucidated how humanity has always been fixated on the moon and other celestial bodies, often exemplified through artistic and poetic expressions. With scientific advancement and the incessant quest for exploring Space, humanity reached the lunar surface when Neil Armstrong became the first human to reach the Moon. Dr. Lele also emphasised the significant role played by the Indian Space Research Organisation (ISRO) in the development of India’s rural areas by investing in and leveraging remote sensing to supply relevant information to stakeholders. In fact, ISRO's substantial budget goes to projects to address broader societal problems. Furthermore, for India, the Moon became an agenda in the 2000s when the Government of India approved ISRO's proposal for the first Indian Moon Mission, called Chandrayaan-1 in November 2003. Later the Space Law and Planetary Exploration Conference was organized in Bangalore from 26- 29 June 2005. Furthermore, he provided more detailed explanations of the prevailing theories concerning the Moon's evolution, encompassing concepts such as the Capture Theory, Fission Theory, and various others. Capture Theory suggests that the Moon was a wandering celestial body like a asteroid and was captured by Earth’s gravity as it passed nearby. The Fission Theory suggests that Moon was once part of Earth that broke away and began to orbit the planet. The other prevailing explanation about the existence of Moon is that a planet called Theia interacted with Earth with some of the resulting debris gathering to form the Moon. The Moon's topography presents a significant challenge due to its extreme temperature. The temperatures at the Moon can plummet to as low as -130 degrees Celsius. Dr. Lele delved into the distinctions between the Chandrayaan 1, Chandrayaan 2, and Chandrayaan 3 Missions, shedding light on the rationale behind humanity's lunar endeavors. Dr. Lele explained that the Chandrayaan 1 Mission, initially designed for a two-year duration, ultimately remained operational for only one year. It entered lunar orbit at an altitude of 100 kilometers to capture images of the Moon's surface. Additionally, Chandrayaan 1 was equipped with 11 scientific instruments from various international partners and successfully detected the presence of water on the Moon. The data provided by Chandrayaan's 11 payloads were used by the scientific community to study the Moon and its environment and played a significant role in bettering our understanding of the Moon. At the outset, Chandrayaan 2 was conceived as a collaborative endeavor between ISRO and Russia's Roscosmos. In this arrangement, ISRO was responsible for supplying the orbiter, and rover, and overseeing the launch, while Russia's role was to furnish the lander. Subsequently, ISRO decided to proceed independently and assumed the responsibility of developing the lander on its own. The Chandrayaan 2 Mission's failure can be attributed to two primary factors. One of these factors was a software glitch, and the other was a deviation in the trajectory when the spacecraft was at an altitude ranging from 2.1 to 0.2 kilometers above the intended landing zone. Despite these setbacks, the mission yielded a wealth of valuable data about the Moon's terrain, including insights into its craters and other features. Chandrayan 3 was a solo mission, featuring only one NASA sensor. ISRO capitalised on the lessons learned from the setbacks encountered during the Chandrayaan 2 Mission. The mission design employed a failure-based approach, with extensive simulations conducted to address potential challenges. To ensure the mission's success, significant enhancements were made to the algorithms. Hardware modifications included reinforcing the lander's legs, and equipping it with four engines. Expanding on the mission payloads and objectives, Dr. Lele provided some additional details. The lander is equipped with three payloads, and the rover also carried two payloads of its own. These payloads are specifically designed for tasks such as analysing the chemical and elemental composition of lunar soil and measuring its thermophysical properties. In a more detailed discussion on the global lunar exploration agenda, Dr. Lele highlighted key milestones and initiatives. The Soviets were the pioneers in achieving a robotic lunar landing. Several decades ago, Japan articulated ambitious lunar plans, although progress has been relatively slow. More recently, countries like the United Arab Emirates (UAE) and Saudi Arabia have shown significant interest in developing their Space Programs. South Korea successfully launched the Danuri, also known as the Korean Pathfinder Lunar Orbiter (KPLO), to the Moon. Israel, with its limited Space Program mandate, made history with Beresheet, its first lunar mission. The United States introduced the Artemis program, encompassing both robotic and human lunar exploration efforts. NASA leads this program, with support from the European Space Agency (ESA) and Space agencies in Japan and Canada. China embarked on its lunar journey with the launch of Chang'e 1, an orbiter, in October 2007. The first successful Chinese lunar landing occurred during the Chang'e 3 Mission, which included a lander and rover system. Presently, China operates the Chang'e 4 and Chang'e 5 systems, with the latter achieving a successful sample return mission from the Moon. Dr. Lele went on to emphasise the significance of Moon missions, underscoring their primary objectives. One of the key aims of these missions is to locate sources of water that can be used to support human activities during future lunar missions. Additionally, the Moon is known to have valuable mineral resources, including rare earth metals (RREs), which are essential for various technological applications. Furthermore, the lunar surface also has an abundance of non-radioactive helium-3, a resource scarcely found on Earth. According to theoretical calculations, helium-3 holds great potential for powering nuclear fusion reactors, offering a promising avenue for clean and efficient energy generation. Moreover, Moon missions carry geopolitical advantages, as they enable participating nations to establish a presence and influence in space exploration, which can have broader implications for international relations and cooperation. The successful outcome of the Chandrayaan 3 Mission holds several positive implications for India. Firstly, it can pave the way for increased collaboration on international Space projects involving India, fostering stronger ties in the field of Space exploration. Additionally, such missions have the potential to popularize STEM (Science, Technology, Engineering, and Mathematics) education in India, inspiring and educating the next generation of scientists and engineers. Successful lunar missions can also lead to the emergence of technology spin-off companies, capitalising on the innovations and expertise developed during these missions to fuel entrepreneurship and innovation in various sectors. Questions and Comments The floor was opened for questions and comments. When asked about how India's Chandrayaan 3 Mission fits into the Artemis Accord, Dr. Lele expressed some skepticism regarding the Accord but found it to be an interestingly designed document. He mentioned that India has been steadily building its heavy lift capacity domestically and has been working on semi-cryogenic technology, which has the potential to transport heavy payloads in the future. Dr. Lele also emphasised that using terms like 'Space race' is unnecessary when discussing India's Space endeavors due to the country's limitations. Instead, he suggested that it is more productive to consider how such missions can benefit humanity as a whole. Regarding the role of private players in India's Space programs, he acknowledged that ISRO depends on private players to a certain extent, but he noted that in the United States, private companies play a more prominent role, particularly in the forefront of Space exploration. He also mentioned ISRO's commitment to avoiding the militarisation of Space missions. Furthermore, he encouraged the strategic community to focus on the technological advancements and spinoff technologies that can be derived from such missions. The Report has been prepared by Mr. Rohit K. Sharma, Research Analyst, Strategic Technologies Centre, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on India-Nepal Hydro Energy Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects	September 04, 2023		1030 to 1300 hrs	Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will speak on “India-Nepal Hydro Energy Cooperation: Challenges and Prospects” at the Monday Morning Meeting which will be held on 04 September 2023 at 10 AM. The venue is Seminar Hall I, Second Floor. Dr. Opangmeren Jamir, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, will be the moderator. Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, will be the rapporteur.
Monday Morning Meeting on The Road to War Termination: Navigating Strategies and Conflict Resolution Efforts in the Russia-Ukraine War	August 07, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “The Road to War Termination: Navigating Strategies and Conflict Resolution Efforts in the Russia-Ukraine War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 07 August 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The Russo-Ukrainian war has defied expectations of a swift resolution, characterised by continued attrition from both sides. Despite increasing violence, international peace proposals from various countries have failed to gain traction due to a lack of willingness from both sides. The complexity of the conflict was highlighted through differing interpretations of agreements, NATO discussions, and Putin’s miscalculations as key factors leading to the outbreak of the war. Efforts for peace before and during the war illustrated the difficulty in resolving the conflict amidst varying stances and tensions. The war’s conclusion might entail victory, armistice, or political settlement, with negotiation likely playing a pivotal role. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Jason Wahlang briefly highlighted how the unfolding of the Russo-Ukrainian war has broken the commonly understood expectation that Russia’s special operation in Ukraine would be short and swift. However, with the strong nuclear posturing and continued attrition from both sides, there is no end in sight. Amidst the escalating levels of violence and destruction on both sides there have been several peace proposals internationally that have attempted to bring to close this prolonged conflict. Israeli Prime Minister’s and Turkey’s early interventions for the peace and grain deal and China and Ukraine's peace proposals are some of the more significant ones. However, the world is yet to see any strong will from both sides to agree upon a solution. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh initiated his presentation by discussing the ongoing Russia-Ukraine War which started on 24 February 2022, has entered its 17th month and is nowhere nearing culmination. The ‘special military operation’ was initiated to prevent Ukraine from joining NATO and preventing NATO from exerting influence over its territory. The objectives of the war have evolved, and both sides have faced challenges in achieving their goals. Additionally, the conflict has also led to the formation of several new alliances and realignments globally and regionally. Col. Singh explained that Ukraine has launched a three-pronged counter-offensive in June 2023, with the main thrust towards the south while focusing on Zaporozhe. The Ukrainian offensive aimed to breach gaps in Russian defences to threaten the land bridge connecting Ukraine's occupied territories to Crimea. However, as the Russian defences are in layers covered with anti-tanks and anti-personnel devices, this offensive has been cost-intensive in terms of human and material damages. Historically it has been witnessed that defensive formations are difficult to breach by an offensive formation unless there is an asymmetry in tactical and strategic capabilities. Some examples of this are the Gulf War I and the Nagorno-Karabakh conflict of 2010. Col. Singh, stated that the circumstances of victory and war termination maybe be conditional to certain objective criteria for each party, however, the ultimate analysis of victory in war is an assessment of the political conditions for war termination. He also stressed on the distinction to be made between victory and war termination as both are two distinct and antagonistic ideas. However, victory is subjective and doesn’t always lead to a preferred outcome; conflicts can end without a clear winner. It is with this understanding the war objectives of all the stakeholders have to be assessed to understand the future trajectory of the war and the shape of the end situation. Col. Singh delved into the reasons for the outbreak of the Russo-Ukrainian War and attributed it mostly to three important reasons. Firstly, in 2015, the second Minsk Agreement, facilitated by France and Germany, aimed to address the conflict arising from Russian-backed separatists seizing territory in Donetsk and Lugansk in 2014. The agreement was interpreted differently by Russia and Ukraine and remained partially unimplemented. Russia denied involvement, while Ukraine sees it as a path to reclaim rebel-held regions, each with distinct objectives concerning the status of Donbas. In 2021, Russia’s President Vladimir Putin expressed concern and hinted at a strategic approach regarding the future of Ukraine. Russia was concerned regarding the prospect of Ukraine’s NATO membership, which was discussed during the 2008 NATO summit. Secondly, President Yanukovych’s removal in 2014 was assessed as a step forward in the West’s attempt at the eastward expansion of NATO. This led to Russia’s annexation of Crimea and Donbas. In 2021, a US-Ukraine Strategic Partnership supporting NATO membership drew Putin’s opposition. In December 2021 Russia proposed treaties opposing NATO expansion and military presence in Ukraine, but these demands were rejected. Thirdly, Putin’s underestimation of Western resilience to support Ukraine led him to initiate his ‘special military operations.’ The speaker then highlighted the war objectives of the multiple parties interested in the Russo-Ukrainian conflict who happen to have their distinct national interests, resulting in diverse war objectives. Russia’s objectives have changed with the progress of war and presently consist of preventing Ukraine’s NATO membership, recognizing Donetsk and Lugansk sovereignty, demilitarisation, and decommunization. Ukraine’s objectives have also evolved. Initially Ukraine was amenable to the idea of abandoning NATO membership in return for Russian withdrawal from occupied areas. President Volodymyr Zelensky sought Western security guarantees. However, as Ukrainian forces gained ground against Russia, goals shifted to the cease of hostilities, withdrawal of Russian troops, and restoration of territorial integrity. The US, which is a key Western actor, leads in providing military and economic aid to Ukraine. The US aims to ‘win and weaken’ Russia and the present war is considered incredibly cost-effective, however, defining victory is challenging. President Biden and members of his administration have asserted their support to bolster Ukraine’s negotiating position and strengthen Ukraine militarily and diplomatically. The war’s complexity stems from the varying interests of Russia, Ukraine, and Western nations, leading to shifting goals and an evolving conflict landscape. Col. Singh then spoke on how the Ukrainian conflict in Donbas has now taken an unpredictable path, making it difficult to predict the outcome. A successful Ukrainian counter-offensive in August 2022 forced Russian forces to withdraw from occupied areas like Kherson and Kharkiv. However, this success has created a paradox: the stronger Ukraine performs on the battlefield, the harder it becomes to negotiate a settlement, despite Ukraine’s advantage in negotiating from a position of strength. Ukrainian interests don’t perfectly align with those of Western allies. Kyiv can take risks in continuing the war, while the Western alliance faces economic costs and the direct threat of escalation or nuclear exchange. Despite Ukraine’s battlefield victories, the US Department of Defense (DoD) isn’t very optimistic about Ukraine’s chances of ending the war favourably. General Mark Milley, Chairman of the Joint Chiefs of Staff, believes neither Ukraine nor Russia can achieve a military victory. The DoD believes that Ukraine will struggle to fully expel Russian forces from all occupied areas, which is Kyiv’s stated goal. The US recommends that Ukraine should take any opportunity for a negotiated settlement. This perspective aligns with leaked US documents (“Discord Leaks”), which express deep concerns about the war’s direction and Ukraine’s ability to successfully combat Russian forces. This pessimistic assessment is also reflected in the US National Security Advisor Jake Sullivan’s suggestion that Ukraine should reconsider its objectives, including the aspiration to regain Crimea, annexed by Russia in 2014. Col. Singh talked about the fact that the delay in providing military aid to Ukraine enabled Russia to strengthen its position and provides an insight regarding Western interests and Ukrainian military capabilities. Additionally, there are concerns about the long-term commitment of the West to fund the war. Despite public statements by Western leaders pledging ongoing aid to Ukraine, recent developments suggest a shift. Attachments of caveats to aid packages from Congress and allied nations indicate that these aid packages are seen as Kyiv’s best opportunity to significantly alter the war’s course. This situation raises doubts about the sustained willingness of the West to financially support the war effort. Col. Singh then spoke about the war termination efforts which were put forth in the pre-war period before 24 February 2022. Before the conflict escalated, the US made efforts to dissuade Russia from invading Ukraine and diplomatic talks continued between Presidents Biden and Putin from June 2021 till the outbreak of the conflict. Post 24 February 2022 Israeli Prime Minister Naftali Bennett attempted a mediation in March 2022, leading to concessions from both Zelensky and Putin. The list of other peace plans which were discussed included - Turkish President Erdogan’s mediation in March 2022, G-7’s Just Peace Plan on 11 October 2022, the Ukrainian President Zelensky’s 10-point peace plan on 15 November 2022, China’s 12-point peace proposal in February 2023 that called for a ceasefire and lifting of certain sanctions, and the Indonesian Defence Minister’s proposed peace plan of 3 June 2023. In June 2023, an African delegation visited Moscow to talk about the African Peace Mission. Despite a number of peace initiatives, achieving a resolution has proven challenging due to shifting positions and differing national interests of stakeholders. Despite the uncertainties associated with wars and battles, in all probability, the Russia-Ukraine War is likely to conclude through a negotiated settlement which may take the form of either, armistice or political settlement. Over last seven weeks, Ukrainian forces have engaged in a counteroffensive, focusing on Zaporizhzhia and attempting to breach Russian defences. However, they have faced challenges like Russian minefields. Russia’s objectives, including regime change and demilitarization, have not been met, and their control over seized territories is under threat. Ukraine’s counteroffensive might result in a frozen frontline, which may then lead to war termination through negotiations. Negotiating an end to the war is likely, encompassing discussion on issues such as NATO and EU membership for Ukraine and security guarantees. Russia may insist on removal of sanctions imposed by the West. Questions and Comments After the presentation, Dr. Wahlang opened the floor for comments and questions. The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy reflected on the Russia-Ukraine War and its implications for war termination and peace. He emphasised that ending war doesn’t guarantee true peace, and drew comparisons to Crimea's situation and historical conflicts, suggesting potential unresolved issues. Ambassador Chinoy highlighted the various peace resolutions that various countries India, China, and South Africa, are attempting to negotiate for the Ukraine conflict. He addressed the concept of investigating war crimes, highlighting the intricacies, the UN Security Council’s role, and the limitations of the International Criminal Court (ICC) due to the actions of countries like the US, China, and Russia. The complexities of demanding trials and the reluctance of superpowers to partake in such processes was discussed. Acknowledging President Zelensky’s demands, Ambassador Chinoy underscored that these are often initial negotiation positions and might not all be fully realized. Overall, he highlighted war termination challenges, the intricacies of war crime investigations, the influence of powerful nations on international justice, and the evolving nature of negotiation demands. Dr. Rajorshi Roy enquired whether communication channels should be established between Russia and the West, as well as between Russia, Ukraine, and other nations. He questioned how recent geopolitical developments, like the US considering Ukraine’s NATO membership, are examined in terms of their influence on Russia's interests and actions in the conflict. Col. Vivek Chadda (Retd.) asked about the role of domestic constituencies in Russia and Ukraine in shaping ongoing war efforts and their potential influence on international relations. He commented on the significance of external support from countries like China for both Russia and Ukraine, considering how this support could potentially impact the outcome of the conflict. Dr. Rajiv Nayan enquired about how the objectives of war for domestic constituents are framed how does one ensure they are aligned with political objectives. Dr. Vishal Chandra asked the speaker to comment on the evolution of NATO’s unity and strength over the last year. He also emphasised on how economic factors shape the dynamics of the conflict and its potential long-term implications. Col. (Dr.) Rajneesh Singh then responded to the comments and questions. The report has been prepared by Ms. Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, Research Analyst, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, MP-IDSA.	Military Affairs
Monday Morning Meeting on India-Bangladesh Trade Settlement in Indian Rupee	August 14, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on “India-Bangladesh Trade Settlement in Indian Rupee” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 14 August 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashish Shukla, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, the Director General of MP-IDSA and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary India's push to promote the use of the Indian Rupee (INR) in Bangladesh comes in response to Bangladesh's declining foreign exchange reserves. This shift aims to strengthen bilateral trade, reduce reliance on the US dollar, and enhance competitiveness by lowering trade costs. While the immediate impact on Bangladesh's dependence on the dollar might be limited given its substantial imports, the strategic move highlights the INR's rising importance in trade between the two nations, with both countries considering the introduction of a currency card to further facilitate transactions and cooperation. Detailed Report In his opening remarks, Dr. Ashish Shukla offered a brief overview of India’s initiative to conduct international trade in rupees. He quoted RBI’s annual report on “Currency and Finance,” which stated internationalisation of the rupee is inevitable. In July 2022, a deliberate effort to internationalise the rupee was also advised in the State Bank of India's ECOWRAP report in light of capital flight from emerging market nations, including India. He emphasised that India’s decision to promote INR as a global reserve witnessed a notable upsurge in the aftermath of the economic consequences resulting from the Russia-Ukraine conflict. At present, more than 19 countries have showed interest in opening Rupee Vostro accounts, essential for international trade settlement in INR. Finally, with the inclusion of Bangladesh into this new setting, he remarked how it has also sparked a de-dollarisation debate in South Asia. Dr. Anand Kumar began his presentation by stating that Sheikh Hasina's appointment as Prime Minister in 2009 sparked a number of constructive developments between India and Bangladesh. Economically, Bangladesh's exports to India are valued at USD 2 billion, while its imports from India are USD 13.69 billion. Both countries have implemented innovative strategies to increase their bilateral trade in times of crisis. For example, during COVID-19, they investigated trading through railroads, which cut shipping costs and expedited commercial processes. They were able to maintain access to essential necessities thanks to this technique. In a similar vein, India has once again stepped in to save Bangladesh from a dollar shortage by offering to facilitate trade in Indian Rupees. Dr. Kumar emphasised that there is no question about the US Dollar's dominance in world trade rapidly decreasing. He claimed that although 70 per cent of world trade was conducted in USD in 2001, by 2023, that percentage has fallen to 58 per cent. He added that when powerful economies like the US increase their interest rates, it triggers a chain reaction; wherein investors withdraw funds from developing nations, leading to currency depreciation across these countries. This depreciation fuels inflation due to elevated import costs for essentials like food and energy. The speaker underscored how the situation becomes intricate as the affected countries struggle to balance their current accounts and afford crucial imports. The issue also extends to servicing external debts, exemplified by the challenges nations like Sri Lanka and Bangladesh face. As a response to these challenges, he analysed how there is a growing inclination among various countries to diminish their reliance on the US Dollar. He gave the example of the members of the Asian Clearing Union having collectively agreed to reduce their dollar dependence and instead settle trade using local currencies. This sentiment is echoed by Asian Finance Ministers and policymakers, who are exploring ways to reduce their reliance on currencies like the Japanese Yen. China has taken advantage of this trend, aiming to position its currency as a global reserve. He stated that at the same time, India is also trying to improve the global status of its currency. This strategic shift, implemented in July 2022, involved the inclusion of the Indian Rupee (INR) in a segment of international trade transactions. Dr. Kumar mentioned that India has also authorised the use of INR for settling foreign trade deals. In a subsequent development, the Reserve Bank of India (RBI) has provided authorisation to banks from 18 different countries. Three banks from Bangladesh have also been permitted to establish Nostro accounts. This strategic move strengthens economic ties between India and Bangladesh and contributes to India's pursuit of greater global economic influence by establishing its currency's credibility. The speaker talked about how over the past year, Bangladesh has experienced a significant decline in its foreign exchange reserves, dropping from US$48.41 billion to US$29.97 billion, marking a decrease of around 28%. This decline is primarily attributed to increased import spending, with moderate remittances and export earnings. The country is grappling with challenges in financing essential imports, particularly fuel, which is crucial for its operations. Hence, the switch to INR trade and commerce. The benefits for Bangladesh are manifold. The move is expected to foster closer diplomatic ties and relationships between the two nations. For businesses engaged in cross-border trade, significant advantages are anticipated. Lower trade costs will likely enhance competitiveness, opening doors to a broader customer base and potentially boosting exports from Bangladesh to India. Additionally, conducting transactions in Rupees can streamline trade processes, eliminating the need for currency conversion when opening Letters of Credit. In conclusion, he underscored that the initiative might not lead to an immediate reduction in Bangladesh's reliance on the US Dollar, considering the substantial magnitude of its imports, which aggregated to approximately US$75.6 billion in the fiscal year 2021. Hence, Rupee transaction may not instantly augment the declining forex reserves in Bangladesh, however, it is an important step forward. Furthermore, both India and Bangladesh are currently deliberating on introducing a currency card to further streamline transactions, with plans for its launch scheduled for September 2023 or shortly thereafter. Questions and Comments The floor was opened for questions and comments. The Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy congratulated the speaker and made a few comments. He underlined several key points regarding India's role in the global economy. He emphasised the significance of neighbouring countries accepting India's economic influence for better regional growth. Despite the inevitable rise of India's economy, he stressed that this growth should involve accommodating neighbouring countries and integrating them into the economic framework. Amb. Chinoy remarked that the recent initiative of trading in Indian Rupees is seen as a positive step toward regional economic collaboration, potentially benefiting nations like Bangladesh, Sri Lanka, and Nepal. He advised caution in expecting the Indian Rupee to replace the US Dollar internationally, pointing out the US Dollar's dominant role in global commodities and transactions. In sum, he suggested focusing on consolidating the Rupee's influence within the region rather than aiming for immediate global dominance. The researchers from the Institute made valuable comments. The remarks underscored the potential for India to enhance the momentum of INR's trade settlement by advocating its use within multilateral institutions like BRICS. The discussion also touched upon Russia's reservations regarding the revival of Rupee-Rouble trade, concerns raised by both Indian and Bangladeshi traders, and the limitations observed in the SAFTA Agreements. Report prepared by Ms. Sneha M., Research Analyst, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.	South Asia	India-Bangladesh Relations
Interaction with U.S. Congressional Delegation	August 11, 2023		1200-1315 hrs	Other	Chair: Amb. Sujan R Chinoy U.S. delegation comprises: 1. Rep. Michael Waltz (R-FL), Republican Co-Chair 2. Rep. Ro Khanna (D-CA), Democratic Co-Chair 3. Rep. Deborah Ross (D-NC) 4. Rep. Kat Cammack (R-FL) 5. Rep. Shri Thanedar (D-MI) 6. Rep. Jasmine Crocket (D-TX)

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