Events

A military delegation from the Joint Command and Staff College of Oman, led by Col. Mohammed Al-Mashaikhi, visited the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) on November 21, 2023. During this engagement, Director General Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy provided an insightful presentation detailing the establishment and structure of the Institute.

Established in 1965, MP-IDSA operates as an independent entity supported by the Ministry of Defence, Government of India. Its governance is overseen by the Executive Council, traditionally presided over by the Defence Minister of India. Amb. Chinoy highlighted the diverse spectrum of research initiatives undertaken by the Institute's various Centres, shedding light on key issues and areas of research by the scholars. Emphasising MP-IDSA's contributions, he mentioned significant publications, specifying two esteemed peer-reviewed research journals: Strategic Analysis and Journal of Defence Studies.

Amb. Chinoy also briefed the delegation about the multifaceted bilateral relationship between India and Oman including defence, security, infrastructure, education, energy and power sectors. He stated that Prime Minister Narendra Modi’s visit to the Sultanate of Oman in 2018 has contributed to further strengthening the bilateral relationship between the two countries. The special friendship of India with Oman was also visible through the Indian invitation to Oman as a Guest Country in India’s G20 Summit. Amb. Chinoy also emphasised the strategic importance of Oman for India.

Both countries have conducted several joint military exercises such as the Air exercise “Eastern Bridge” and the joint Army exercise called Al Najah. He mentioned that Oman is one of the few countries with which India conducts joint military exercises with all the three wings of the defence forces. He also highlighted the participation of Omani officers in the ITEC programme with 125 slots in India and the presence of a large Indian diaspora community in Oman among others.

Amb. Chinoy noted that India is among Oman’s top trading partners. Bilateral trade between the two countries stands at around US$ 12. 38 billion in 2022-23. It has more than doubled in the last few years. In 2020-21 total trade was US$ 5.44 billion. India remained the 2nd largest market for Oman’s crude oil in 2022.

Discussion

The following key issues and suggestions were discussed by the members of the Omani delegation and scholars of MP-IDSA during the meeting:

1. India-Oman Security Cooperation: The scope for security cooperation between India and Oman is extensive, given their shared commitment to regional stability and counterterrorism efforts. Both countries can collaborate on intelligence-sharing, joint military exercises and maritime security initiatives to address the common security threats in the Arabian Sea. Enhanced defence ties can include the exchange of expertise in counterinsurgency operations, cybersecurity and disaster management. Also, joint efforts in capacity-building, military training programs and strategic dialogues can contribute to a robust security framework, ensuring the safeguarding of shared interests and promoting peace and stability in the region.

   Oman, strategically positioned at the southeastern corner of the Arabian Peninsula, has a vast and significant maritime domain. With a coastline stretching over 1,700 kilometres along the Arabian Sea and the Gulf of Oman, Oman plays a pivotal role in the geopolitics of the region. The country’s maritime space encompasses critical sea lanes, making it a key player in global maritime trade. It was suggested that the maritime cooperation between India and Oman should be further expanded. Strengthening maritime connectivity can facilitate smoother trade routes and boost bilateral relations. Additionally, the development of ports and shipping infrastructure through mutual cooperation can enhance both countries’ capabilities in handling goods and services, thereby fostering economic growth.

2. Expanding Al-Najah Exercise: The Al-Najah is a joint military exercise which aims to enhance the level of defence cooperation between the Indian Army and the Royal Army of Oman, thereby enhancing the bilateral relations between the two nations. The scope of the exercise includes professional interaction, mutual understanding of drills and procedures, establishment of joint command and control structures and elimination of terrorist threats. In the discussion, it was suggested that Al-Najah exercises could be expanded into a joint tri-services exercise, bringing in personnel from the Navy and Air Force as well.

3. Cooperation in the Defence Industrial Sector: There exists a significant avenue for bilateral collaboration in the defence industrial sector for both India and Oman that needs to be explored further. The potential for synergy between the two nations in this domain is highly promising and holds the prospect of yielding mutually advantageous outcomes. Moreover, the establishment of exchange programmes for defence personnel, technical experts and engineers can serve as platforms for the exchange of expertise and skill sets, further strengthening defence and security cooperation between the two countries.

4. Research on Water Security: A member of the Omani delegation stated that there is scope for research collaboration between the Middle East Desalination Research Centre (MEDRC) and MP-IDSA in the field of water security. Founded in 1996 as a component of the Middle East Peace Process, the MEDRC is an international organisation that addresses freshwater scarcity issues. Situated in Muscat, the organisation is tasked with conducting research, providing training, fostering development cooperation and overseeing transboundary water projects – all aimed at finding solutions to the challenges posed by limited freshwater resources. There are good prospects for collaboration, which may be further discussed based on mutual understanding.

5. Joint Research and Exchange of Scholars: The meeting explored the potential for collaborative research endeavours and the exchange of scholars between MP-IDSA and counterparts from Oman, aiming to deepen mutual comprehension of pertinent bilateral issues. Amb. Chinoy highlighted MP-IDSA's recent engagement with two African Fellows, underscoring the success of such academic collaborations. Extending a similar initiative to involve scholars from Oman was proposed as a strategic step towards fostering stronger ties and shared research initiatives between the two countries.

Report was prepared by Mr. Abhishek Yadav, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.

On 13 November 2023, Dr. Rajiv Nayan of the Nuclear and Arms Control Centre delivered a talk during the Monday Morning Meeting on ““America’s Strategic Posture”: An Analysis (Report of the US Congressional Commission Released in October 2023)”. The meeting was chaired by Gp. Capt. (Dr.) R K Narang, VM (Retd), Senior Fellow at MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The Report on “America’s Strategic Posture” is intended to provide a bipartisan assessment of the United States strategic posture, and offers a glimpse of its nuclear strategy, even though its recommendations are not binding on the US Government and armed forces. The current report (issued October 2023) is especially significant, as it not only elevates China to the level of a peer competitor, but also envisages a tripolar deterrence scheme where the US and its allies may have to deter (or combat) two nuclear-armed states in the form of China and Russia. The report is also significant because it seems to abandon the US’ diplomatic commitments to nuclear disarmament and arms control, while strongly suggesting a build-up of US nuclear forces and arms in response to perceived threats from the two powers mentioned above. Dr. Rajiv Nayan’s talk shines a light on the evolution of the US’ nuclear doctrine contained within the report, and discusses its implications for regional and global security.

Detailed Report

The meeting was called to order by the Chair, Gp. Capt. Narang, who introduced the Speaker and delivered short introductory remarks on the topic under discussion. He introduced to the audience the structure of the United States Congressional Commission that drafted the report, the nodal agencies involved in its formulation as well as the wide scope of the commission’s deliberations. He then invited the Speaker to address the audience.

Dr. Nayan commenced his talk by providing an overview of the report entitled “America’s Strategic Structure”, the second edition of which was issued in October 2023 after a hiatus of 14 years. He informed the audience that the report aims to provide bipartisan assessments on the US’ long-term strategic posture, and gave a brief overview of the 131 findings and 81 recommendations mentioned in the 2023 report. He then compared the table of contents of both the 2009 and 2023 editions in order to give a bird’s-eye view of the key issues taken up in the report.

Dr. Nayan proceeded to give a brief introduction to the rationale of the report, which according to him entailed reviewing existing policy, assessing factors affecting strategic stability and offering non-partisan assessment of the overall scenario. To accomplish this, the Commission adopted a methodology of meetings with US policymakers, allies and partners and non-governmental experts, classified presentations by members of the intelligence community, field trips to classified locations and referencing from public-domain documents issued by the Pentagon and others.

Next, the Speaker introduced some of the definitions the study provides in order to clarify the subject. He discussed in some detail the concepts of strategy, strategic posture and strategic stability in particular, and questioned the meanings and significance of these, given that some terms, especially strategic stability are contested in nature. He then moved to the definition of what the report refers to as the “US-led international order”, and how it defines military conflict and disruption by “authoritarian” regimes such as China and Russia as the key external variables impacting US vital interests.

The Speaker then discussed the findings of the report, which he assessed as being quite pessimistic in nature. In particular, he called attention to the touting of a “whole-of-government” approach to strategic security, as well as the recognition that major power conflict in today’s era can easily lead to nuclear conflict, which will be a catastrophic outcome. He further noted the report’s recognition that future wars are likely to be very expensive for all parties involved.

Next, the Speaker discussed the report’s discussion of Russia’s nuclear modernisation. The report assessed that Russia would retain the world’s largest nuclear arsenal till 2035, and remained pessimistic on bilateral arms control agreements as it blamed Russia for violation of several agreements such as New START. The report also discussed the conventional capabilities of the Russian Armed Forces, and noted their willingness to take huge losses as seen in Ukraine.

After Russia, Dr. Nayan discussed the report’s treatment of China. Here he urged the audience to pay particular attention to the upgradation of the China ‘threat’ to that of a ‘peer’, marking a significant escalation. The report assessed China’s nuclear arsenal as on track to achieve quantitative parity with the US by the 2030s, and rated highly, the conventional capacity of the Chinese People’s Liberation Army (PLA). Dr. Nayan also drew attention to the report’s claim that a new nuclear test in China’s Lop Nor testing facility could be in the offing. Thus, the report concluded, the cost of inaction over Taiwan may weigh heavily on the US, as it would become easier for the Chinese to take and keep Taiwan with such nuclear cover as its expanded arsenal could provide.

Dr. Nayan also introduced briefly the report’s discussion of “non-peer” nuclear powers such as North Korea and Iran, before introducing the geopolitical outlook. Here he introduced one of the key takeaways of the report, its vision of a “tripolar deterrence” mechanism, by which the US and its allies may have to deter two peer competitors (China and Russia) at the same time, as well as non-peer actors such as North Korea and Iran. This, the report argues, is something the US and its allies are not yet prepared for, and thus there is a need to adjust the US’ strategic posture. The Commission’s majority-proposed solution, as reflected in the report, is to increase the nuclear stockpile across the board while adapting the nuclear doctrine to what is called the “modern triad”. This is envisaged as having a dedicated sea, air and land leg each, which is necessary to “ride-out” (i.e. survive) a pre-emptive enemy strike while “launching under attack” (i.e. firing nuclear weapons before they are destroyed). The commission also recommends in the report that the President be given “low-yield” (i.e. tactical/theatre nuclear weapons) options in case of an attack.

After this Dr. Nayan introduced the report’s critical view of the state of nuclear industries in the US, and the recommendation for a top-to-bottom overhaul of said industries in order to prevent technological leakage while preserving optimum performance. He also noted the report’s silence on India and several other countries in the report, as well as the relative de-emphasising of strategic risk reduction and disarmament. He finally offered his own assessment, in which he noted that the report seemed to point to the concern of many lawmakers within the US regarding its vulnerability to strategic surprises (for example, Pearl Harbour, 9/11 and the end of the Cold War), which led to the report’s dismissal of disarmament as a realistic policy, ramping up of a security-centric narrative where peer states again become a core focus, the re-introduction of theatre nuclear weapons, and the provision of doctrinal clarity.

After the conclusion of the Speaker’s talk, the Chair made a few remarks in summary and opened the floor for questions.

Questions and Answers

Mr. Arvind Khare, Research Fellow, Defence Economics and Industry Centre asked whether the US reflection on its role in Afghanistan and Vietnam informed the report’s emphasis on ‘viable opportunities’ to engage US forces, and whether the report had a tutelary function. To the first question, the Speaker replied that the report was not reflecting on Afghanistan and terror in general, as the latter has been completely neglected. To the latter point, he replied that the report is intended not to educate, but to generate debate among the strategic community, while signalling to other countries the US’ vital interests as well.

Capt. Anurag Bisen, Research Fellow, Non-Traditional Security Centre, asked whether the report envisaged dismantling the US’ land-based stockpile of obsolete missiles, and whether the US strategy emphasised counter-base or counter-population strikes more. To this the Speaker replied that the current report does not intend to dismantle the triad, but rather to upgrade them. To the latter question, he noted that the report explicitly is against counter-value strikes for its targeting strategy, though in a nuclear conflict it may be difficult to differentiate civilians and military personnel.

Ms. Shayesta Nishat Ahmed, Research Analyst, Defence Economics and Industry Centre, inquired about tripolar deterrence and its redressal. The Speaker answered by affirming that the fear of tripolar deterrence (with two peers in China and Russia and a non-peer power such as North Korea and Iran) existed throughout the report, but dismissed Iran’s significance as a nuclear threat, while also denying North Korea’s seriousness in actually seeking nuclear conflict with the US. Thus the focus was more on the peer rivals.

With the conclusion of Q&A, the chair gave his closing remarks and brought an end to the meeting.

This report was prepared by Dr. Arnab Dasgupta, Research Analyst, East Asia Centre.

Dr. Nicolas J.A. Buchoud, Think7 Consultant and Advisor to the Dean and CEO of Asian Development Bank Institute (ADBI), gave a talk at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, on 6 October 2023 and shared his perspective on "The UN SDGs at the Halfway Mark: Prospects & Challenges". The Session was chaired by the Director General, MP-IDSA, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy. Scholars of the Institute participated in the discussion.

Executive Summary

Dr. Buchoud emphasised the importance of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development and called for enhanced collaboration between states. He acknowledged the challenges of macroeconomic and monetary factors affecting states’ efforts in achieving SDGs. Dr. Buchoud commended India's comprehensive efforts for its G20 Presidency and called India a role model for finding innovative solutions to various challenges of SDGs.

Detailed Report

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy introduced Dr. Nicolas J.A. Buchoud by highlighting all his important professional associations. Ambassador Chinoy, in his opening remarks, pointed out that Sustainable Development Goals (SDGs) have not even become successful in achieving 10 to 12% of their set objectives past the halfway mark in 2023. Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that the COVID-19 Pandemic and the ongoing war in Ukraine have further created challenges for global food, fuel, fertilizers and finance that have hampered the success of SDGs. In his remarks, Ambassador Chinoy underscored that the developed states have failed in their commitments to provide the required finances to the developing states of the Global South. This has further deprived these states of achieving SDGs and their own nationally determined goals and objectives. With some of these initial remarks Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, called upon Dr. Nicolas J.A. Buchoud to deliver his talk.

Dr. Nicolas J.A. Buchoud thanked Ambassador Chinoy and started his talk by highlighting the importance of the 2030 Agenda for Sustainable Development. Dr. Buchoud mentioned that there is a need for upgrading active collaboration and dialogue between G7 and G20 to address various issues of SDGs. He highlighted that the motto ‘Think globally, act locally’ remains very relevant for states in meeting their SDGs as many solutions to these global issues could be found locally at community, municipality and at regional levels. Dr. Buchoud in his talk acknowledged that there are a number of macroeconomic and monetary factors that are seriously affecting SDGs and international affairs as a whole. He pointed out that the issue of economic desynchronisation is not only at a global level but many developed Western states are witnessing the impact of economic desynchronisation within their states that hampers their efforts to meet SDGs. He brought out that though billions of dollars have been poured into the countries’ economies in the form of relief packages, no substantial progress has been made by these states in achieving SDGs.

Dr. Buchoud mentioned that the world presently is in an extremely volatile time period. The global links of interdependency post-Cold war have accelerated global urban development, but these linkages of interdependency have also created global challenges of governance for states. The moment these global linkages of interdependency get disrupted, these create equally difficult problematic situations for global order. He highlighted that analysing the current global order and states' divide within the UN, there remain some serious doubts about whether the existing framework of UN would be able to deliver on  Agenda 2030 in the next 6-7 years. He acknowledged that though there are several constraints within the existing system, attempts to review these challenges need to be done in a careful manner. Dr. Buchoud mentioned that in this global think tanks can play an important and constructive role. Highlighting India’s success of its G20 Presidency, Dr. Buchoud mentioned that India under its presidency managed to ensure consensus among states on various issues despite these states' global differences. This serves as a positive example of what could still be achieved on SDGs. Dr. Buchoud mentioned that the transformation of the global financial architecture is not an abstract phenomenon but it is something that is really happening. He pointed out that as the G20 Presidency in coming years moves to most of the countries of the Global South, these countries have a fair chance to shed a different light on development issues that are of primary concern to them. He pointed out that the African Union's entry into G20 is a positive sign. Many of these African countries have very strong recommendations about development and governance models that have been ignored by other countries in the past. African Union entry to G20 under the Indian Presidency offers many new opportunities to almost 50 African states to address these emerging challenges.

In his concluding remarks, Dr. Buchoud mentioned that the way in which India had prepared for and delivered its G20 Presidency has been far more comprehensive than has been analysed by most observers. Secondly, India since its independence, has emerged as a role model for development. India’s ability to craft significant innovation can become a guiding principle for addressing various challenges of SDGs. Finally, Dr. Buchoud mentioned that the efforts put forward by India under its G20 Presidency need to be taken forward and further refined, as these carry the seeds of possible transformations for the global future.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy raised three critical comments for the Speaker to respond to:  Firstly, Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that the United Nations has become quite redundant and incapable of efficiently addressing global issues of war, peace, growth and prosperity. Secondly, he asked the Speaker to comment on the competing notions of what constitutes progress and development. Ambassador Chinoy mentioned that the assessment of the emerging global system suggests that there is no uniform code to which all the global states could collectively agree.  Thirdly, Ambassador Chinoy raised the issue of ‘Climate Finance’. He highlighted that under the preoccupation of post-COVID recovery and the Ukraine-Russia War, Western states seemed fatigued on the issues of climate finance. Ambassador Chinoy further mentioned that if he takes all these three factors into account, he does not see any of the SDGs successfully being achieved within the existing timeframe. He also questioned the Speaker regarding the UN’s rationality while setting its aspirations for these SDGs in 2015, being fully aware of the existing political, economic and other ideological differences among 193 countries of the world. Lastly, Ambassador Chinoy asked the Speaker if these Bretton Woods Institutions have any ‘Plan B’ if they failed to meet their 'Agenda 2030'.

Col. (Dr.) D.P.K. Pillay commented on the issue of the revival of coal-based plants in the European countries post-Ukraine War and asked the Speaker about their calls for green agenda and climate change. Col. Pillay also mentioned that the Global South needs adequate finances to meet their SDG targets for which the West needs to fulfil their commitments.

Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha mentioned that the extent of these SDGs may be too vast and it may take another 56-60 years to achieve these, but the positive aspect of these SDGs is that they have started shaping the global growth models of states and made those more inclusive. 

Ms. Ruchita Beri asked Dr. Buchoud about the impact of COVID and the Ukraine War on meeting the objectives of SDGs. She questioned whether the Western world is ready to fulfil their financial obligations committed to African countries in the past.

Comdt. Manoranjan Srivastava also highlighted the issue of climate finance. He mentioned that India by 2030 requires almost 2.5 billion dollars to meet its climate obligations. He highlighted that the global ocean ecosystem has become vulnerable to the impacts of global warming and the earth has reached its tipping points, that cannot be reversed in the near future.

Dr. Adil Rasheed asked the Speaker if the global economic problems that have emerged post-COVID-19 Pandemic and the anomalies’ amongst states created by these, could be used as an excuse to get out of the 2030 deadline set for meeting SDGs.  

Dr. Nicolas J.A. Buchoud gave a detailed explanation to all the questions and the comments raised and the talk ended with a formal note of thanks from the Director General.

Report prepared by Mr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, NTS Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.

Dr. Abhishek Mishra, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Recent Coups in Africa’s Sahel Region: Trends and Challenges” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 30 October 2023. The Session was moderated by Dr. Rajeesh Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The recent spate of coups in West Africa and the Sahel, notably in Mali, Burkina Faso, and Niger, has raised significant concerns regarding political stability in the Sahel region. Driven by socio-political grievances and security challenges, military interventions have disrupted democratic governance. Burkina Faso experienced a coup amid economic challenges and rising extremist violence, while Niger and Gabon also faced coups, citing dissatisfaction with the government's handling of security threats. The international community has strongly condemned these actions, emphasising the urgent need for a return to democratic principles. Regional organisations, such as the African Union and the Economic Community of West African States (ECOWAS) play a pivotal role in mediating and restoring stability to the region. Their efforts are crucial in addressing the complex socio-political and security issues that have led to these unsettling developments.

Detailed Report

The presentation commenced with Dr. Rajeesh Kumar delivering opening remarks, providing a foundation for examination of recurring coups in Africa. Dr. Rajeesh mentioned the historical depth of this phenomenon, spanning from 1946 to 2020, with over 300 instances documented. The focus of the discussion, led by Dr. Abhishek Mishra, was on unravelling the intricacies and understanding the root causes of these coups.

The presentation proceeded with Dr. Abhishek providing an overview of the research methods employed, with particular emphasis on the utilization of descriptive and analytical approaches in addition to using both primary and secondary sources. Transitioning to the theme, he highlighted three distinct waves of coups in Africa. The first wave (1960s-1970s) was characterised by the overthrow of leaders whose political visions conflicted with the interests of major colonial powers. The second wave (1990-2001) is examined in terms of failures in the 1980s, reduced violence involving mid-level officers, and the impact of evolving democratic norms at the regional and continental level. The ongoing third wave (2020 onwards) is marked by diverse motivations, ranging from unconstitutional Presidential term limit extensions and anti-colonial sentiments, with a spotlight on country-specific manifestations.

Subsequently, he provided analysis on factors propelling coups in the Sahel, identifying perennially weak states, overdependence on aid, and electoral governance shortcomings as pivotal drivers over the past three decades. A comprehensive overview of recent coups from January 2020 to August 2023 was presented, incorporating statistics on attempted and successful coups, notable incidents (e.g., Niger in July, Gabon in August 2023), and the resultant implications for the region.

Dr. Abhishek further explored the Sahel region, revealing a landscape fraught with intricate challenges influenced by structural, governance, and external dynamics. The collapse of Libya intensified military involvement, fostering discontent and challenges to elected leaders. Cold War-era neocolonialism deepened reliance on external aid. Governance systems, a legacy of colonialism, often lack true democratic principles, consolidating power within group of elites and particular communities. While certain nations successfully transitioned to functioning democracies like Ghana, Mauritius, Cote d’Ivoire, unmet youth aspirations persist. Military coups, orchestrated by well-trained officers, lack economic direction and ideological foundations, with citizen’s support for military overthrow reflecting dissatisfaction rather than endorsement of military rule. Democratic regression, evident in superficial democracies and declining satisfaction, underscore governance hurdles. Recommendations emphasise regional collaboration, institutional investment, and local governance focus. Strained state-society relations necessitate inclusivity efforts and resolution of historical grievances. Discrepancies between legality and legitimacy, driven by foreign interference, impede effective governance. France's role, rooted in colonial history, faces scrutiny amid growing decolonial sentiments and regional tensions. Insecurity, exemplified by the failure of Operation Barkhane, further complicates the region's landscape.

In his exploration of the Sahel region, Dr. Abhishek highlighted the intricacies surrounding Operation Barkhane, France's initiative in 2013 to curb Islamist violence. While initially successful against insurgencies, France's recent withdrawal, commencing on 15 August 2022, has raised concerns about potential destabilisation and power vacuums in the region. The "Francafrique" system, characterising France's relationship with African nations, came under scrutiny for inconsistencies and double standards in promoting Western values, contributing to tensions. Immigration and visa issues further strained relations between France, Africa, and Europe, complicating diplomatic dynamics.

Amidst these complexities, Russia's role in the region received attention, with Dr. Abhishek urging caution against media hype. Despite Russia's deep pockets, limitations to its influence in certain African countries were noted. The heightened violence following the withdrawal of Operation Barkhane and the United Nations Multinational Integrated Stabilisation Mission in Mali (MINUSMA) brought attention to security challenges, notably attributed to groups like Jamaá Nusrat ul-Islam wa-al Muslimin (JNIM) and the Islamic State in the Greater Sahara (ISGS).

Dr. Abhishek advocated a political and diplomatic resolution to the crisis, emphasising the temporary nature of sanctions and the need for a bottom-up governance-focused approach. Improved coordination among international organisations, revisiting peace deals, and cautious dialogue with militants were underscored as essential elements for a sustainable resolution. The potential for African Union and ECOWAS intervention was acknowledged, particularly in preventing political transitions through diplomatic means. The assessment of countries susceptible to coups, including Cameroon, Republic of Congo, and Equatorial Guinea, highlighted concerns about dissatisfaction with long-serving leaders and the potential for power shifts in these regions.

Questions and Comments

During the Q&A session the scholars raised a number of thought-provoking inquiries, ranging from the implications of foreign intervention, specifically dissecting the aftermath of French involvement in African nations, to a deep dive into the role of social media in shaping post-coup leadership. The motivations behind unconstitutional power extensions took centre stage, prompting discussions on whether civilian governments or military leaders were more prone to such actions. Scrutiny extended to the effectiveness of regional blocks and the African Union in curbing coups, prompting a collective call for a re-evaluation of existing sanctions and conditions.

Dr. Abhishek Mishra addressed the questions posed by the scholars. On the issue of instability in Francophone West Africa, he noted that successive coups haven't directly led to instability, explaining the uniqueness of each country's situation. Coup prevention emerged as a priority, particularly in cases where leaders attempt third terms, leading to concentrated power. Regarding democracy, Dr. Mishra stressed the need to revisit the social contract and build institutions for sustained trust between civilians and leaders. From India's perspective, the instability poses a limited threat to investments, but the country continues to seek new markets, as Indian embassies in these regions continue to operate despite the instability. The coup phenomenon is more pronounced in Francophone West African countries due to France's historical legacy. Mishra highlighted challenges in weak states, with citizens blaming leaders for unfulfilled promises, emphasising the necessity of inclusive approaches to state-building, bringing in diverse communities for sustainable development.

The report has been prepared by Mohanasakthivel J., Research Analyst, ALACUN Centre, MP-IDSA.