EVENTS

You are here

Events

Title	Date	Author	Time	Event	Body	Research Area	Topics	File attachments	Image
Monday Morning Meeting on Emerging Opposition Politics in Bangladesh: Would It Be a Challenge to Sheikh Hasina?	January 09, 2023			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Smruti S. Pattanaik, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, spoke on the topic "Emerging Opposition Politics in Bangladesh: Would It Be a Challenge to Sheikh Hasina?” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 09 January 2023. The session was moderated by Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA. Maj.Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), the Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, and MP-IDSA scholars enriched the discussion. Executive Summary A massive protest was organized by the leading opposition party Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) against the government on 10 December 2022 in Dhaka. A large number of protesters gathered at Dhaka’s Golapbagh. These protests organised by the opposition BNP are massive enough to demonstrate that re-election of Sheikh Hasina’s Government in the January 2024 election would not be easy. There are many factors which play a defining role in the next election. Detailed Report The Monday Morning Meeting commenced with Dr. Ashok K. Behuria, Senior Fellow, South Asia Center, MP-IDSA discussing the details of the nationwide massive protest organised by the BNP against the government on 10 December 2022 in Dhaka. According to Dr. Behuria, the massive numbers of protesters are enough to upset the government. He mentioned that the Sheikh Hasina government is in its third term. Dr. Pattanaik initiated the discussion with a description of the opposition political parties in Bangladesh. Where some of the parties, especially the left groups are an integral part of civil society movements, some of the parties are part of the two broad alliances led by the incumbent Awami League (AL) and the Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP). For example, BNP was associated with a 20-party coalition. It is now reduced to a 12-party coalition. Similarly, the AL has a 14-party coalition. Apart from these two major political parties, other parties, except for Jatiyo Party and Jamaat-e-Islami Bangladesh, do not have significant electoral presence in the country. BNP and Its Alliance BNP was a part of a 20-party alliance in the last election held in December 2018. The BNP-led alliance participated in the 2018 national election under the banner of the Jatiya Oikya Front, which also included former Foreign Minister, Dr. Kamal Hossain's Gono Forum. During 2018, the BNP-led coalition managed to get only 7 seats in total and 293 seats were won by the AL in an election that is perceived as controversial and the government is accused of ballot stuffing and this election is referred by some as ‘midnight’ election. In electoral politics, the AL is confident that it can win the next election even though the opposition rallies made Sheikh Hasina address a rally in Chittagong in an effort of ‘show of strength’. Ms. Pattanaik talked about the dissolution of the coalition of Jamaat-e-Islami and BNP. Jamaat Ameer argued that for the last five years, there has been no joint program with the BNP and the alliance has lost its political relevance in this context. Back in 2018 prior to the election in Bangladesh, there was a big question about whether the Jamaat will be part of the BNP or not because some important leaders inside the BNP spoke against the BNP’s alliance with Jamaat. However, electoral considerations made them to stick together and Jamaat which was deregistered as a political party fought the election on BNP’s symbol. It is a well-known fact that the Jamaat has a 12 percent vote bank in Bangladesh and they managed to get 18 seats in 1991 and in 1996 they received 8.6% of votes and won only 3 seats. The JI rose in politics only after it entered an electoral alliance with the BNP prior to 2001 elections. After leaving the BNP led opposition coalition, Jamaat has applied for registration as the Bangladesh Development Party. Religious Political Groups in Bangladesh There are two major religious groups in Bangladesh, one is Jamaat- e- Islami which has recently applied for registration as the Bangladesh Development Party and another one is Hefazat e Islam which defines itself as a political group. Jamaat is ideologically a very strong party with a dedicated cadre. The party members are associated with financial institutions, banks, have their chain of hospitals, educational institutions etc. which employ well-qualified cadres. Its stint in power between the period 2001 to 2006 benefitted the party and it expanded its network. On the other hand, Hefazat-e- Islam mostly controls Qaumi madrassas and madrassa students are its captive supporters. Many leaders belonging to this group are also hold positions in other smaller religious political parties. In the last election, one more religious political party that stood third in terms of support base is Islami Shasontantra Andolan. Civil Society in Bangladesh Civil society in Bangladesh is also divided along ideological lines. Supporters are divided along party lines and participate in the party programmes even though they are not members of political parties. Civil society in Bangladesh is very vibrant and has played a significant role in preserving the plural character of the state, culture, language, minority rights, issues of livelihood, gender etc. There are civil society groups that work to preserve Islamic values in society and see to it that no laws violate the tenets of Sharia. Bangladesh civil society is very much opposed to military/authoritarian regimes and support democracy. People across the civil society want to change but they are equally apprehensive about the character of the next regime. Stakeholders in Favour of the Status Quo Since the last 15 years, various stakeholders have aligned themselves with the Sheikh Hasina regime and have benefitted from it. Both the government and its stakeholders depend on each other for their sustainability. The long rule of AL has also resulted in massive politicisation of bureaucracy as well as state institutions. Such politicisation is not new in Bangladesh’s political history. Profiteering from the regime has become a hallmark whether it pertains to arrest or selection of candidates for local body and national elections. The character of the Bangladesh Parliament been changed over a period of time. More than 60 percent of current members of Parliament in Bangladesh are businessmen. Issues that Will Determine the Ballot in Bangladesh On the government side, it is said that economic development and stability in Bangladesh are the key achievements of the government which will be determining factors for the upcoming elections. In 2021, Bangladesh saw 7.2 percent economic growth and in 2022 it was 6.2 percent. This is despite the pandemic which affected Bangladesh’s readymade garment exports as well as remittances. In the past decade, Bangladesh has witnessed infrastructure development, and achieved energy sufficiency, till the Russia-Ukraine war hit the global energy market. The government has taken a decision to address the shortage of foreign currency by curbing imports of non-essential goods and has also taxed industries which are using imported gas. There are three important factors. First, to hold a multiparty election. BNP may not participate in such an election but there will be other political parties who will participate in the election conducted by the Election Commission of Bangladesh. Second, managing the perception of the west regarding credibility of the election is another important factor. Apart from these, managing the domestic stakeholders would also be significant. In this context, neutrality of the armed forces would be important. India would watch this election as domestic permutation and combination takes place with re-alignment of political forces, prior to the election. The Deputy Director General, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi said that India is an important factor for Bangladesh but Bangladesh is also a defining factor for security of northeast. There were questions regarding what would be main electoral issues and whether issues raised by political parties are any different than those raised in past election. Ms. Pattanaik gave insightful responses to comments and questions from the participants. The report was prepared by Mr. Shubham Thorat, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.
Eminent Persons’ Lecture Series on the topic India’s Air Power: Future Trends and Context	January 12, 2023		1100 hrs	Eminent Persons' Lecture Series	Topic: India’s Air Power: Future Trends and Context Speaker: Air Chief Marshal VR Chaudhari PVSM AVSM VM ADC, Chief of the Air Staff Chair: Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, DG MP-IDSA Venue: MP-IDSA Auditorium
Monday Morning Meeting on "China’s Zero-COVID Policy: Reactions at Home and Abroad”	December 26, 2022			Monday Morning Meeting	Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on "China’s Zero-COVID Policy: Reactions at Home and Abroad” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 December 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Titli Basu, Associate Fellow. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The rising COVID cases in China have set off alarm bells all around the world. China’s National Health Commission has ceased releasing information on the daily COVID cases. The present surge in cases comes at a time when the nation is doing away with its Zero COVID policy and gradually opening up its economy and society. A look at China’s approach to the pandemic highlights its emphasis on stamping out the virus. China's Zero COVID policy is essentially an elimination strategy that aims to keep infection numbers as low as possible at all costs. Despite mounting criticism of policy excesses, China's Communist Party (CCP) reaffirmed its commitment to the Zero COVID policy. Since its inception three years ago, the policy has achieved very little in comparison to the cost it has inflicted on the Chinese economy and society. The population that once supported the policy is now increasingly opposed to it. It remains to be seen how China will deal with the ramifications of the Zero COVID policy. Detailed Report Dr. Basu commenced the Monday Morning Meeting by highlighting the explosion in COVID cases in China. She emphasised that China’s rapid surge in COVID cases has impacted the world’s health security and geo-economics. Furthermore, the surge in cases comes at a time when Beijing is parting ways with its Zero-COVID policy. Like other nations, India is also reflecting on this growing concern. Dr. Basu stated that India would be concentrating on using a test-track-treat strategy in the future. Ms. Banerjee was given the floor by the moderator after the brief introduction. The speaker stated that the Zero-COVID policy has been a topic of considerable debate from the time it was instituted, in 2020. She began by exploring the timeline of the COVID-19 situation and highlighted the long gap between reporting of the first cluster of cases in early December 2019 and government response. According to Ms. Banerjee, administrative laxity allowed 5 million individuals to leave Wuhan and facilitated the rapid spread of the virus to other regions of China as well as to neighbouring countries. The speaker pointed out that China came under heavy criticism for its slow response. It was as late as 23 January 2020 that Beijing initiated strong measures to stop the virus's spread. Ms. Banerjee stated that, in December 2020, China began its vaccination program. Here, she noted that, while China put much emphasis on stamping out the virus, it did not enforce vaccination as mandatory. In 2021, China continued to report major outbreaks. Further, the speaker discussed China’s Zero COVID policy. She observed that the policy became a cornerstone of China's response to COVID 19. It came to signify zero tolerance against COVID 19 infection and aimed to achieve zero community-level transmission. Ms. Banerjee then cited a joint report by the World Health Organisation and China that provided a theoretical framework for the Zero-COVID strategy. Ms. Banerjee observed that the Zero-COVID policy was essentially an elimination strategy aimed at keeping infection numbers as low as possible. However, reports and instances emerged indicating government policy excesses, intrusive control measures, mismanagement, and lack of flexibility. The severe lockdowns also posed enormous difficulties for Chinese citizens. In order to double down on the Zero-COVID approach, Provinces were divided into grids with grid controllers mandated to enforce the protocol measures dictated by local authorities. She mentioned that the government launched an app to monitor people's movements to determine whether they posed risk of contagion, causing massive bewilderment and confusion. Further, the speaker highlighted the number of lockdowns imposed in China as compared to other countries. In this regard, she noted that in contrast to other countries, China consistently increased the number of lockdowns over the years. Ms. Banerjee stated that when the Omicron Variant was discovered in November 2021, China fine-tuned its COVID policy to 'Dynamic Zero-COVID policy'. She claimed that the modification was based on the realisation that given the new variant's high transmissibility, zero domestic outbreaks were not possible. According to the speaker, in contrast to the previous policy, a greater emphasis was placed on prevention and containment. However, the difference on the ground was negligible. Ms. Banerjee also discussed why the implementation of the COVID policy became so unresponsive to people's needs. First, there was a fear of punishment among government officials, and second, there was competition among local officials and Provinces in the hope of political advancement. As the presentation drew to a close, she discussed the cost of Zero-COVID policy for both China and the international community and moved on to highlight the reasons for continuation of the policy. Ms. Banerjee stated that the policy had a significant human cost, with an increase in cases of depression and mental health issues. The Zero-COVID policy also resulted in widespread disruption of supply chains on a global scale. The speaker cited several reasons why the strict Zero-COVID policy was maintained despite significant losses: to demonstrate the superiority of the Chinese political system over liberal democracies, to preserve the Government’s and Xi Jinping's image, particularly ahead of the 20th Party Congress, and low efficacy of home-grown vaccines; and low vaccination rate among the elderly, etc. During the initial outbreak, the Zero-COVID policy was widely supported by the domestic population. The phrase "not being a burden to the government" became prominent. However, people's attitudes shifted over the course of two years. There was increasing concern that the Zero-COVID policy could be self-defeating. Global reaction exhibited a similar trend. Foreign investors were growing concerned about the policy's impact on trade. Despite all this, in the 20th Party Congress, Xi reaffirmed China’s commitment to the Zero-COVID policy. The government did not roll-back most of the COVID restrictions until December 7, 2022. Ms. Banerjee concluded her presentation by stating that the three years of Zero-COVID policy achieved very little as compared to the cost it extracted from the Chinese economy and society. It remains to be seen how China will manage to mitigate the implications left behind by the Zero-COVID policy. Following the presentation, the Dr. Basu invited the Director General, Ambassador Chinoy to offer his comments. Amb. Chinoy observed that, at this point, China's COVID policies appear to be jeopardising the world much more due to their unpredictability and the lack of transparency in decision-making. The Zero-COVID policy appears to be an extremely short-sighted, myopic decision. He emphasised that this is heavily influenced by the existing political system in China, where the CCP’s sole objective is to retain power. He shared that the Chinese always carry out their actions as mass movements and it is these mass movements that have altered the course of Chinese history. The element of control is indispensable to these mass movements. A pandemic, however, is not something the CCP can control. As a result, China has shifted to the dynamic Zero-COVID policy, demonstrating some flexibility in their approach to COVID-19. Ms. Banerjee concurred with Amb. Chinoy’s comments and stated that the chaotic situation demonstrates that no exit strategy was planned by the CCP regarding its Zero-COVID policy. Key Takeaways from the Q&A Session Following Ambassador Chinoy's remarks, MP-IDSA scholars were invited to join the discussion. In response to a question about the rising number of cases in China and the possibility of a change in Chinese policy regarding the rejection of Western vaccines, Ms. Banerjee stated that the CCP has been steadfast in its opposition to Western vaccines. A question was raised about the disconnect between central and local government responses to the COVID19 pandemic. Ms. Banerjee stated that the Zero-COVID policy was primarily issued by the central government as a broad policy guideline, leaving its implementation to the various local governments. Ms. Banerjee responded to a question about the reasons for the shift to the dynamic Zero-COVID policy by stating two possible reasons: growing frustration among Chinese citizens and higher transmissibility of the Omicron variant. In response to a question about the efficacy of Chinese vaccines and the implications for countries that have imported them, Ms. Banerjee stated that the efficacy of the vaccines must be considered in the context of herd immunity and vaccination of the elderly population. Report prepared by Ms. Esha Banerji, Intern, East Asia Centre.
Monday Morning Meeting on "Nepal Elections: Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policy”	December 12, 2022			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on the topic "Nepal Elections: Implications for Domestic and Foreign Policy” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 December 2022. The session was moderated by Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, senior scholars and research analysts, and members of MP-IDSA participated in the meeting. Executive Summary Nepal has been witnessing prolonged political instability. Modern Nepal had 44 Prime Ministers in 72 years of its political history since 1950. On an average a Nepali Prime Minister served for 18 months. In 2015, Nepal adopted a new constitution with the hope that it would bring political stability. Unfortunately, the country witnessed two governments and again two attempts by former Prime Minister K.P. Sharma Oli to dissolve the House of Representatives (HoR) from 2017 to 2022. Nepal had five Prime Ministers during the post-constitutional period. Given the fragile political history, voters hoped that the November 2022 elections would bring stability by having a majority government (138 as the major mark) of the 275-member HoR. The fractured mandate has once again dashed hopes of political stability in Nepal in the near future. Detailed Report Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, discussed Nepal, a country that went through a decade long Maoist insurgency and adopted a new constitution in 2015. According to the New Constitution, Nepal adopted a Federal Parliamentary system. 60 percent of the members are directly elected and 40 percent are elected through proportional representation. The total number of members in the HoR is 275 where 138 Seats are required to win the election. Recently, Nepal went through the general election which was held on 28 November 2022. The Nepali Congress (NC) emerged as the largest party in the house and could possibly form the government with its alliance parties, but despite their support, the group is short by 2 seats from the majority mark of 138. K.P Sharma Oli emerged as the biggest opposition leader in the recent election. The main issues of this election were the revival of the domestic economy, political stability, and the problem of governance. Dr. Nihar R. Nayak commenced his presentation by saying that Nepal has been witness to prolonged instability. The country is suffering from chronic political instability since 1950. In the 72 years of Nepal's political history, Nepal witnessed 44 Prime Ministers. Nepal's Ministership term is 5 years but the actual term is reduced to an average of 18 months due to chronic instability. Dr. Nayak spoke about the recently concluded election in Nepal which is called the "Election of Hope" because the voters of Nepal hoped for political stability after a long period of political instability. Nepal introduced the new constitution in 2015 for political stability in the country but it failed to achieve its objectives. Rather, it has witnessed five Prime Ministers after the adoption of the New Constitution in 2015. The key mandates of the Constitution include political stability, the establishment of an inclusive society, and the use of national resources for rapid economic growth. He elaborated on the recently concluded Nepal elections and the position of different political parties and also the status of new national parties. As per the constitution, the status of the national party remains for five years. The status gets updated after every Parliamentary and Provincial Assembly election. As directed in the Constitution, to hold a national party status, a political party has to secure one HoR seat under the first past the post (FPTP) and 3 percent of the total votes cast under the Proportional Representation (PR) system. As per the 2022 election results, there have been seven national political parties that includes two new parties-the Rashtriya Swatantra Party (RSP) and the Janamat Party. Besides the fractured mandate, the 2022 election also witnessed some new trends which include the absence of ideology and a CMP ( Common Minimum Program) while forming alliances. Public disenchantment with the old political parties was visible with the defeat of over 40 senior leaders. Apart from this, some other new developments took place like the emergence and re-emergence of political parties, the decline in Maoists' total vote share, the poor performance of the Madhesi-based political parties, compulsory declaration of election expenditure by the candidates as per the Supreme Court directive, and common issues related to foreign policy were identified in the electoral manifestoes of the top three political parties. Dr. Nayak talked about the possible foreign policy of the three main political parties- the NC, Communist Party of Nepal (UML), and the CPN (Maoist-centre). These parties proposed to have a good relationship with immediate neighbors, not have any military alliance with any country, and resolve border disputes with India. While the NC has given priority to pursuing an independent foreign policy, expansion of ties with neighboring countries, and resolving border issues with neighboring countries through the diplomatic channel, the CPN-UML wanted to have more engagements with China by emphasising the ‘One-China' policy. The CPN (Maoist-centre) has proposed to declare Nepal as a zone of peace. Dr. Nayak talked about the possible scenarios in the context of the November 2022 results. In Scenario 1, there would be a NC-led government with the support of its alliance. The alliance is short by two seats in order to form a government. The alliance has to resolve both intra-party and intra-alliance problems like tenureship of the Prime Minister's position, the President, and other constitutional positions. For example, there are five leaders within the NC who want to become the Prime Minister. Also, the Maoist Party wants the Prime Ministerial post for a period of 2.5 years. In Scenario 2, there could be a left-alliance government in Nepal. If the NC-led alliance fails to form the government then the Maoists could switch to the UML side and a CPN-UML-led government could be formed in Kathmandu. In Scenario 3, the President would explore possibilities to have an elected government for five years under Article 76 of the Constitution. If no party or individual members are able to form the government, the house could be declared dissolved by the President on the recommendation of the Prime Minister under clause 7 of article 76. Dr. Nayak concluded by observing that Scenarios 1 and 2 would most likely unfold. However, some wild cards (low possibilities, high impacts) like the accidental absence of some top political leaders and the current President Bidya Devi Bhandari’s return to active politics after her retirement in March 2023, might change the political situation in Nepal. He concluded by saying that given the current position of the political parties in the HoR and the trust deficit between the alliance partners, Nepal might continue to witness political instability in the future. Comments and Questions Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, made a suggestion to look at the concerns of India to resolve the border issue between the two countries. He further stated that given the special relationship between Nepal and India, there should not be so much media coverage during discussion on resolution of issues. Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha questioned about youth representation in the Nepal election Dr. Adil Rasheed made a query about the problem of the revival of Jihadi terrorism in the Nepal Terai region. The speaker, Dr. Nihar R. Nayak gave detailed and analytical replies in response to comments and questions from the panelists and participants. Report prepared by Mr. Shubham Thorat, Intern, South Asia Center, MP-IDSA.
13th YB Chavan Memorial Lecture on "Transforming the Armed Forces Through Technology, Restructuring and Aatmanirbharta”	December 22, 2022		1430 hrs	Y B Chavan Memorial Lecture	Chief of Defence Staff, General Anil Chauhan, PVSM, UYSM, AVSM, SM, VSM will deliver the annual Y.B. Chavan Memorial Lecture on “Transforming the Armed Forces Through Technology, Restructuring and Aatmanirbharta” on Thursday, 22 December 2022 hosted by the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi, at 1500 hours. Director General, MP- IDSA, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy will moderate the event. Programme Welcome Address by Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy DG, MP-IDSA - 1430-1435 hrs Remarks by Representative of Y.B. Chavan Memorial Trust - 1435-1440 hrs 13th Y.B. Chavan Memorial Lecture by Gen Anil Chauhan, CDS - 1440-1510 hrs Interactive Session - 1510-1540 hrs Vote of Thanks by Maj Gen Bipin Bakshi (Retd), DDG, MP-IDSA - 1540-1545 hrs Tea - 1545 hrs Venue: MP-IDSA Auditorium (2nd Floor). The event will be conducted under Chatham House rules.
Two Day Conference on “International Cooperation for Chemical Disarmament Combating Chemical Terrorism”	December 19, 2022 to December 20, 2022		1330 hrs	Conference	Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) and the Stockholm International Peace Research Institute (SIPRI) are jointly organising an online conference on "International Cooperation for Chemical Disarmament: Combating Chemical Terrorism”. It is scheduled to take place on the Webex platform on December 19-20, 2022, at 1330h (IST). The conference intends to deliberate upon the provisions and procedures embedded in the Chemical Weapons Convention (CWC) to be used to the greatest effect for counter-terrorism purposes. Given your interest in the subject, you are invited to participate in the discussion.
Discussion with Mr. Antonio Chun-nan Chiang, Deputy Secretary General of Taiwan's National Security Council	December 15, 2022		1200 hrs	Round Table	Discussion with Mr. Antonio Chun-nan Chiang. Mr. Chiang is a former deputy Secretary General of Taiwan's National Security Council. He was deputy Secretary General of the Council from 2000 to 2004. The discussion will take place Friday, December 16, 2022, from 10:30 AM to 12:00 PM in Boardroom # 104, First Floor. The Director General, Amb. Sujan R. Chinoy, will chair the session.
Monday Morning Meeting on "COP27: An Assessment”	November 21, 2022			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. Nihar R. Nayak, Research Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, spoke on "COP 27: An Assessment” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 21 November 2022. The session was chaired by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha, Centre Coordinator, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA. Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Senior Scholars, Research Analysts, and Interns of the Institute were in attendance. Executive Summary The 2022 Conference of the Parties to the United Nations Framework Convention on Climate Change (COP 27) was held from from 6 November to 20 November 2022 in Sharm El-Sheikh, Egypt. The presentation gave a comprehensive overview of the Conference and the major issues raised during the meeting. Detailed Report Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha commenced the session by introducing the audience to the recently concluded COP 27 Summit. He highlighted that this year’s summit has been projected as the ‘Implementation COP’ given that there is hope of focussing on implementation of previous policies adopted. He noted that the current geopolitical landscape represents a "permacrisis" that is characterised by long periods of insecurity and instability. With these remarks, Dr. Sinha invited Dr. Nayak to make his presentation. At the outset, Dr. Nayak introduced the audience to the origin of the COP and its decision-making process. He noted that the report of the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change (IPCC) in 1990 and the 1992 Rio Earth Summit led to the establishment of the COP. He highlighted that the UNFCCC does not legally bind or provide any timeline and targets for the participants. However, he added that it is mandatory to hold regular COPs. Dr. Nayak opined that the third COP held in Kyoto in 1997 and the COP 21 in Paris in 2015 are of particular relevance to the global climate policy and established mechanisms of responsibility-sharing. He added that the former was limited in mandate and especially for the developed countries, while the latter included all developing countries as well. In the next part of his presentation, Dr. Nayak displayed comparative figures to depict the top greenhouse gas emitters on a global level. On a cumulative basis, since 1850, the United States and European Union occupied the top positions. The speaker then compared these with the emission status in 2018, wherein, China occupied the top position. Dr. Nayak opined that climate negotiations have further led to divisions between the developed and developing states. He added that developing countries have been demanding the release of climate funds and the introduction of the loss and damage fund. However, developed countries continue to avoid these demands. Dr. Nihar also presented the data displaying the current status of Climate Finance and the amount contributed by developed states. Dr. Nayak also discussed the major issues raised during COP 27 negotiations. He noted that several participants demanded more action-oriented rules. He added that demands for the inclusion of the Top 20 emitters, including India and China, to contribute to the climate fund have also increased. The demands were met with some opposition from India. He further noted that the European Union has demanded that natural gas and nuclear power should be declared as green energy and the International Monetary Fund proposed that the carbon price floor should be fixed. The speaker further addressed three critical issues that came up during COP 27 negotiations. Firstly, he discussed the demands for a Loss and Damage Fund led by the G-77 countries. Although officially adopted, he opined that its implementation will be a challenge. Secondly, Dr. Nayak also discussed India’s proposal for the phase-down of all fossil fuels and the lack of support for the same. Lastly, he highlighted the debate on limiting global average temperature rise to 1.5 degrees and the risks associated with crossing that threshold. The speaker also tracked civil society responses to the negotiation. He noted that the summit witnessed large-scale participation from global energy companies and it was funded by major polluting companies. He added that fossil fuel lobbyists included delegates mainly from the United Arab Emirates and African countries that influenced climate negotiations. In the next part of his presentation, Dr. Nayak discussed India’s stance at the COP 27. He noted India’s re-emphasis on Common but Differentiated Responsibilities and Respective Capabilities (CBDR-RC). India also sought clarifications on the climate fund. The Mangrove Alliance for Climate was also launched in order to promote the preservation of mangrove forests towards efforts to curb global warming. He added that India opposed the demand for declaring ‘gas as green energy’. Discussing the achievements of the summit, he posited that spurring private sector investments in the green energy market and the increasing use of solar power is a success. Dr. Nayak concluded by presenting the challenges faced during climate negotiations. These included the absence of implementation mechanisms on loss and damage fund provisions, lack of consensus on contentious issues, geopolitical issues such as Ukraine and Taiwan, the growing influence of energy companies, and a trust deficit between developed and developing states. Discussion Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi, (Retd.) underlined the importance of the Loss and Damage Fund and highlighted the need to increase renewable energy use. Dr. Nazir Ahmad Mir raised questions on the 1.5° C threshold, the global stance on Climate Change and the role of African companies in supporting fossil-fuel use. Dr. Deepika Sarawat enquired about the institutional mechanisms to decide the host for the COP summit. Ms. Mayuri Banerjee made a query about whether there is a link between terrorism and climate change and the existing discourse on the challenges faced by the two The discussion ended with a Vote of Thanks by Dr. Uttam K. Sinha. The report has been prepared by Ms. Richa Kumaria, Intern, Non- Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA.
Talk by H.E. Dr. Fayssal Mekdad, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates Syrian Arab Republic	November 18, 2022		1030 to 1300 hrs	Talk	The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a Talk by H.E. Dr. Fayssal Mekdad, Minister of Foreign Affairs and Expatriates, Syrian Arab Republic, on “Developments in Syria and the Region, & India-Syria Relations” on 18 November 2022. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA, delivered the welcome remarks and moderated the session. Executive Summary H.E. Dr. Fayssal Mekdad offered a brief review of the present situation in Syria, highlighting the challenges posed by terrorist groups and the constraints faced by the present government. He also spoke at length about ways Western interference has destabilised the region and how unilateral Western sanctions continue to undermine Syria’s reconstruction efforts today. He concluded his talk by suggesting deeper cooperation with India to combat terrorism and urged the international community to unify efforts to fight the menace of terrorism. Detailed Report The session began with Amb. Chinoy extending a warm welcome to H.E. Dr. Fayssal Mekdad and other participants who joined the event. In his welcome remarks, Amb. Chinoy made observations on Syria’s rich civilisational and cultural heritage and the deep historical linkages between India and Syria. He stated that over the years, ties between the two countries have been nurtured through regular high-level visits and India has been one of Syria’s key developmental partners. Further, India hopes to do more with Syria, especially in capacity building projects. Highlighting some of India’s recent endeavours in the field of humanitarian assistance to Syria, Amb. Chinoy informed that New Delhi has played a crucial role in helping Syria to meet its food, health and developmental needs during the period of crisis. Also, India has extended support towards Syria’s human resource development by providing educational scholarships to students and providing training to Syrian diplomats. He stated that Syria’s devastation is a reminder to the rest of the international community of the need to respect national boundaries and sovereignty, and the dangers posed by radical ideologies and terrorist organisations. He added that India hopes to see a peaceful and comprehensive resolution of the decade-long conflict through a Syrian-owned dialogue, involving all the parties to the conflict. Drawing attention to the larger international situation, Amb. Chinoy stated that the past few years have witnessed major changes in the global strategic landscape. The effects of the COVID-19 pandemic have been compounded by great power competition and major power rivalry which is spilling over to diverse areas from trade, technology to ideology. He highlighted that as India takes on the presidency of the G20, New Delhi will endeavour to work together to address the security challenges faced by the international community and India is committed to striving for the benefit of the Global South. Amb. Chinoy ended his address by emphasising on the dangers of conflict and the need to recommit to strengthening diplomacy and resolving disputes through peaceful dialogue and negotiations. Dr. Mekdad stated that the situation in Syria is improving and the victory is not only for Syria against terrorism but for all humanity. However, if the destructive force of terrorism succeeds again in Syria, the entire international community will suffer. Linking the Syrian conflict to the Arab Spring, he contended that the violence and the political instability caused by the Arab Spring were planned by the Muslim Brotherhood, certain Western countries and Turkey. Contrary to Western media propaganda of the Arab Spring being the solution to the problems faced by the Arab world, the event was a geopolitical change effected by the West to achieve its political needs. He elaborated that the West mislead Arab people and the international community with promises of democracy and freedom, however, the US and its allies have not been able to stabilise the countries where they engineered regime change. With regard to the Syrian conflict, Dr. Mekdad stated that while terrorists and insurgents infiltrated into the country through Turkey, the US and Europe accused Syria of human rights violations and blocked the Syrian Government’s access to the international media. They also falsely accused Syria of using chemical weapons against its own population. Moreover, at present, parts of Syria are occupied by Turkey and Western forces who are not only fuelling separatism but also stealing Syria’s natural resources like oil and natural gas. He expressed the view that although the West has made significant contributions towards developing the ideas of democracy and human rights, they are now politicising these principles for their own interests. Highlighting the crippling impact of Western sanctions on the Syrian economy and society, Dr. Mekdad suggested that the US was committing human rights violations by denying Syrian people access to basic food and health amenities. He concluded his talk by appreciating India’s past humanitarian assistance and continuing efforts towards supporting Syria. He offered Syrian cooperation to India for combating terrorism. He emphasised that terrorism is an international threat which should never be tolerated. As an essential measure towards combating terrorism, Dr. Mekdad suggested that civil institutions should be empowered to play a more influential role. Following Dr. Mekdad’s speech, Amb. Chinoy highlighted two key takeaways from his address. He observed that the international community needs to unite in the fight against terrorism by rising above the divisive politics and ideologies of the day; and secondly, the world needs a big dose of humanity and a moral compass to guide it into the future. The Talk was followed by a lively Q&A session. Responding to a question on the phase of reconstruction in Syria and the feasibility of the infrastructure project connecting Iranian ports to Syrian and Lebanese ports on the Mediterranean, Dr. Mekdad affirmed that the three countries are working together to strengthen economic cooperation, however, the US presence in the south of Syria is thwarting infrastructure development that could benefit Syria and the neighbouring countries. Another participant made a query about the Syrian Government’s plans to counter the spread of radical ideologies within Syria. Dr. Mekdad stated that Syria is trying to combat it by promoting education in schools and universities and empowering civil institutions in the country. To a question on the status of the Astana process, Dr. Mekdad responded by stating that the Astana process has taken the negotiations in a good direction and it will confer again with Russia, Iran, Turkey, the Syrian delegation and observer countries meeting for negotiations. The session ended with a Vote of Thanks by the Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd). Report prepared by Ms. Mayuri Banerjee, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA.
Monday Morning Meeting on "India-France Defence Cooperation: Looking Ahead”	December 05, 2022			Monday Morning Meeting	Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA spoke on the topic “India-France Defence Cooperation: Looking Ahead” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 5 December 2022. The session was moderated by Col. Vivek Chadha (Retd.), Senior Fellow, MP-IDSA and attended by Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and all the scholars of MP-IDSA. Executive Summary Since Independence, India’s defence cooperation with France has remained consistent. French aircraft like the Toofani, Mystère, Mirage, Rafale and Alouette helicopters have been some of the potent assets of the IAF. Over the years, India-France Defence Cooperation has evolved from buyer-seller relations to the level of co-developers. Arms imports from France by India in recent times have increased by over 90 per cent, making it the largest European supplier of defence equipment. India is France’s second-largest defence market, after Saudi Arabia. As part of its offset obligations relating to the Rafale deal, Dassault along with Reliance is manufacturing components of civilian jets with FDI of 100 million Euros. Out of the 56 offset contracts, nine are being executed by French defence companies and their subsidiaries. The naval variant of the Rafale aircraft is a leading contender along with the US-manufactured F-18 for India’s Multi-Role Carrier-Borne Fighter (MRCBF) procurement tender for the Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers. Apart from fighter aircrafts, India is also procuring fifty-six C-295 manufactured by Airbus for the IAF. These developments indicate that India is now turning towards Europe for the import of military aircrafts. 2023 marks 25 years of the India-France Srategic Partnership. Detailed Report Col. Vivek Chadha commenced the session by stating that defence relations of India with France have remained consistent since Independence. He said in more recent times, France has been a leading supplier of cutting-edge weapons and technology to India. He highlighted that French-manufactured fighter jets have played a decisive role in major operations during the 1965 War, Kargil War and the Balakot airstrikes. Col. Chadha highlighted that qualitatively a defence relationship evolves when it goes beyond just a buyer-seller relationship and reaches a level of co-development. With these opening remarks, Col. Chadha invited Dr. S. Samuel C. Rajiv to make his presentation. Dr. Rajiv began his presentation by detailing the recently concluded India-France Annual Defence Dialogue in New Delhi. He stated that arms imports from France by India have increased by over 90 per cent in recent times, making it the largest supplier of defence equipment to India among all the European nations. Dr. Rajiv brought out that India is the second largest export market for French arms, after Saudi Arabia. He stated that in 1953, the Indian Air Force (IAF) became the first export customer for the French fighter aircraft, Mystere, which was renamed as Toofani. Subsequently, Mirages and Rafales were also procured. He highlighted that the French defence company 'Safran' has been present for over 65 years in India and 75 per cent of the aircraft and helicopters of the IAF have Safran INS systems, co-developed with Bharat Electronics Ltd. and the Defence Research and Development Organisation. He then went on to explain the offset policy relating to India’s procurement of the Rafale fighter jets. Dr. Rajiv brought out that as part of its offset obligations, Dassault along with Reliance is slated to manufacture components of civilian jets costing 100 million Euros. He stated that out of the 56 offset contracts in India, nine are being executed by French defence companies. He highlighted that the naval variant of the Rafale aircraft is a leading contender along with the US manufactured F-18, for India’s Multi-Role Carrier-Borne Fighter (MRCBF) procurement tender for the Indian Navy’s aircraft carriers. He stated that both the US and French have been aggressively pitching for their respective aircrafts. Dr. Rajiv stated that apart from fighter aircrafts, India is also procuring 56 C-295 manufactured by Airbus for the IAF. He stated that these developments indicated that India is now turning towards Europe for the import of military aircraft. He opined that if India opts for the Rafale-Marine for its MRCBF along with the C-295, then it would signify the ascendance of European aerospace companies in the Indian market. He ended his presentation by stating that the year 2023 is a crucial year for India-France relations as it marks the 25th anniversary of their defence cooperation. During the discussion, Maj. Gen. (Dr.) Bipin Bakshi brought out that the French Alouette light utility helicopter was procured by India in 1965. Later these helicopters were manufactured as Chetak in India under a license obtained by Hindustan Aeronautics Limited (HAL) as one of the earliest examples of Transfer of Technology (TOT) between the two nations. He also said that the Indian Armed Forces successfully fitted the HAL Chetaks with SS-11 B1 missiles which were also manufactured by France. Gen. Bakshi stated that French influence in India’s defence sector, despite being very significant, has largely been underplayed. He emphasised that the prospects of French contribution to the Indian defence industry must be closely studied. The session concluded after an insightful exchange of views between scholars during the Q&A session. Key Takeaways Arms imports from France by India increased by over 90 per cent in recent times, largely on account of the Rafale and the Scorpene deals, making it the largest European supplier of defence equipment. India is France’s second-largest defence export market, after Saudi Arabia. Out of the 56 offset contracts in India, nine are being executed by French defence companies. India is now turning towards Europe for the import of military aircraft. Report prepared by Dr. R.Vignesh, Research Analyst, Military Affairs Centre, MP-IDSA.

Pages

Top