Continuing conflict, competition and rivalry have been a regular phenomenon in the Gulf region over the past few decades. Among other reasons, the troubled relationship between the Gulf Cooperation Council (GCC) countries and Iran has been one of the major factors responsible for the present state of affairs in the region. The relationship has been marked by sectarian and ideological differences, clash of interests over the presence of the US in the region, concerns over the Iranian nuclear programme and territorial disputes between Iran and the United Arab Emirates (UAE).
Mubarak’s fall may bring Iran closer to Egypt than ever before. Iran has taken a pro-people stand and hopes to reap a harvest of good-will in the Arab world. The Iranian Opposition has also extended support to the movement, though for different reasons.
The Iranian nuclear stand-off is still a major issue in global politics. From international players like the European Union, the United States and the United Nations, to individual states, almost each country has its own stake in the issue. However, the recent deal brokered by Turkey and Brazil has not only changed the nature of the issue, but also the discussion itself. The deal has changed the nature because the one-sided dialogue between the international community and Iran is no longer relevant.
In recent years, Iran has come to acquire a significant place in the West Asian region with the ability to influence regional politics. For India, relations with Iran are vital. In the changed strategic environment, both India and Iran have been working towards improving their bilateral relations. However, there are several challenges, especially for India, in this regard. If the Iran-US confrontation intensifies, for example, India may find it difficult to pursue a smooth relationship with Iran.
The joint statement on nuclear issues reflects the combined endeavour of the two countries to find a new common ground, though the final outcome reflects the struggle of the traditional contending approaches of India and the United States.
The latest IAEA report dated September 6, 2010 to the Board of Governors, delineating Iran’s compliance or otherwise with the provisions and requirements of the IAEA and UN Security Council (UNSC) resolutions, indicates that contentious issues have not been resolved. As sanctions tighten, the US, China and Russia have urged Iran to fully cooperate with the IAEA.
Whilst war is not likely in the foreseeable future, the likelihood of its occurrence further down the line has increased in the light of Admiral Mullen’s statement.
While the US may continue to keep its contacts with the Pakistani army and its political leadership and strengthen its presence in Pakistan, can it contain the tide of Islamic radicalism prospering within Pakistan?
