Monograph - MP-IDSA

Situating Africa in the Indo-Pacific construct the Role of India and External Powers

From an African perspective, literature on maritime security and the Indo-Pacific is very limited. Any discussion on Africa's inclusion and role in the Indo-Pacific discourse is at a nascent stage. The maritime security aspects and challenges facing African countries situated in the Western Indian Ocean (WIO) region have thus far not been adequately explored in the existing literature. The scholarly debates and international responses have tended to focus mostly on piracy in African waters. Piracy has sensitised both Africa and the international community to the threats off Africa, but it has also skewed perceptions about Africa's maritime landscape. Despite that, maritime security in an African context has been increasingly assuming prominence in the African security agenda. This monograph studies, analyses, and highlights the imperative for African countries in the WIO region to integrate themselves and play a constructive role in the emerging Indo-Pacific debate. It also attempts to find out the ways through which African countries in the WIO region could benefit by developing common positions on the Indo-Pacific based on shared interests and principles. Such a study is important because multilateralism matters for African states as it gives them the best chance to pool resources and ideas to influence global decisions and ensure that their voices are factored in discussions that have a bearing on the continent's growth and development.

Reforms for Atmanirbharta in Indian Naval Aviation

This monograph deliberates on reforms for achieving self-reliance in naval aviation. Indian Navy (IN) is at the cusp of transforming from a ‘buyers navy’ to a ‘builder navy’ in ship and submarine building; however, self-reliance in aviation remains a missing link. IN’s withdrawal from LCA Mk-1 (Navy), LCA Mk-2 (Navy), non-approval of TEDBF and lack of participation of IN in Naval AMCA has brought its Carrier Based Fighter (CBF) program to a stalemate. The incoherences in the self-reliance trajectory of CBF extends to Maritime Reconnaissance (MR), Airborne Early Warning (AEW) aircraft, helicopters and UAVs. The structures, policies and initiatives need re-orientation/ reforms for naval aviation self-reliance. The proposed apex level structural and execution level policy reforms are aimed at bringing synergy, accountability and expediting decision making. Also, elevating naval aviation self-reliance trajectory from subsystems level to platform and systems level development initiatives can be a stimulant for change. In addition, measures for mitigating aero engine vulnerabilities, scientific mechanism for Indigenous Content (IC) validation, factoring impact of ToT and imports, and spiral development approach are essential prerequisites for Atmanirbharta in Indian Naval Aviation.

Pakistan: The Fault Lines

Pakistan is passing through one of the most difficult periods in its history. There appears to be no easy solution with regard to the multifaceted crisis in which the nation finds itself entangled. The societal fabric is being torn apart along ethno-linguistic and politico-religious lines. Prominent state institutions no longer follow the constitutional rulebook and often overstep to violate the established system of checks and balances. Some home-grown radical Islamic and religious extremist outfits are threatening to overthrow the existing state apparatus to establish an Afghan Taliban-style emirate in the country. Against this background, the present study identifies and analyses five distinct fault lines in the country that Pakistan has miserably failed to manage effectively. The study offers an in-depth analysis of the existing and emerging fault lines and contextualises them in light of recent developments in the country.

India’s ‘Pacific Islands’ Outreach: Understanding Regional Narratives, Geopolitics & Opportunities

The narrative of ‘the return of geopolitics’ to the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) is gaining traction in the larger discourse of the Indo-Pacific, primarily driven by the anxiety over People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) expanding engagement in the region. The exacerbation of international tensions, amplified by the Sino-US rivalry, comes even as the Islands navigate intra-regional frictions, challenges of economic development, illegal fishing, climate change and issues related to self-determination and decolonisation. India’s renewed outreach to the PICs under PM Modi’s leadership has found wide appeal, as was visible during his visits to the Pacific Islands and his interaction with leaders via the Forum for India-Pacific Islands Cooperation (FIPIC). Given this context, this monograph will attempt to briefly introduce the relevance of this contested geography to regional and extra-regional players. It will unpack the internal dynamics of regional tensions and examine the agency of PICs. It will expand on how China’s actions are redefining geopolitics in the region and discuss these contested narratives. Within this backdrop, it will also explore how Indian engagement has been perceived in the region and conclude with prescriptive options of steps India could take, including with regional partners, to anchor meaningful presence in the PICs region.

Evolving Security Architectures in Southeast Asia: A Study of Regional Security Multilateralism

The central theme of this monograph is to analyse the emerging security architecture in Southeast Asia. The evolving internal and external developments which confronts Southeast Asian countries has led to the emergence of a complex regional security environment. The ongoing United States-China rivalry in which Southeast Asia finds itself at the centre, is a key factor in shaping the regional security outlook. The study examines the role of ASEAN in shaping the security architecture centered on its norms and upholding multilateralism. However, the ineffectiveness of ASEAN as an informal security arrangement raises concern over the future of security multilateralism. Further, at a time of weakening multilateralism, along with the emergence of new and renewed security alignments being witnessed in the Indo-Pacific; the ASEAN's centrality comes under increasing pressure. Therefore, an examination into the role of major powers and the new bilateral and mini-lateral security arrangements, provides the future roadmap for security multilateralism in Southeast Asia.

Assertion of Religion in Sri Lankan Politics: A Critical Analysis

The monograph presents an in-depth analysis of the role of religion in Sri Lankan politics and its impact on the country in the social, political, security, and foreign policy domains. It focuses on the politics of the Sinhala-Buddhist and Muslim communities, as they have explicitly utilised their religions for political purposes in the post-independence period. To comprehend the role of religion in contemporary Sri Lankan politics, the monograph traces the evolution of the country's social and political structures, as well as the relationship between the state and religion, under various political systems and administrations from the ancient period till date. The historical and current political developments are analysed by applying the integrative theory in the context of religion and politics in Sri Lanka.

China’s Role in Afghanistan and Pakistan Post US-Nato Withdrawal: Implications for India

The monograph examines the inception of China's geostrategic/geo-economic pivot towards Pakistan— and more recently, Afghanistan— before charting the trajectory of its expanding role in the Af-Pak region. It assesses the viability of the evolving geopolitical triangle comprising China, Pakistan and Afghanistan, before evaluating possible Chinese strategy behind deepening engagement with a region marked by chronic volatility. The study, in particular, assesses China's strategic interests in Afghanistan and how Pakistan remains central to its Afghan policy. The monograph also seeks to explore whether the return of the Taliban and China's rising profile in the region would signal the evolution and fruition of China's Af-Pak strategy. By examining both convergences and divergences in Afghanistan and Pakistan's bilateral ties with China, the study investigates the contours of a potentially hyphenated approach. It concludes by outlining prominent security paradigms in the region and the inherent dilemmas that shape China's strategic calculus in this complex geopolitical theatre.

म्यांमार: तलाश एक समावेशी राजनीतिक तंत्र की

अस्मिताओं, महत्वाकांक्षाओं और लगातार उभरती हुई राजनीतिक प्रवृत्तियों के बीच का टकराव ही म्यांमार की आधुनिक कहानी लिख रहा है। ऐसा भी कहा जा सकता है कि इस देश का राजनीतिक इतिहास मानो एक अधूरी गाथा है, जहां स्वतंत्रता के बाद से ही सत्ता के गलियारों में केंद्रीकरण की गूंज इतनी प्रबल रही कि बहुलतावाद और सहभागिता की संभावनाएं बार-बार दबा दी गईं। यह प्रबंध-निबंध (मोनोग्राफ) इसी विफलता की परतों को खोलता है और बताता है कि समस्या केवल प्रभुत्वशाली वर्गों की सत्ता-लालसा तक सीमित नहीं, बल्कि उस सांस्कृतिक खालीपन में भी निहित है, जहाँ विश्वास, संवाद और साझा भविष्य की आकांक्षा अंकुरित हो ही नहीं पाई। जातीय समूह अपने-अपने संघवाद के सपने लेकर इस भूमि पर चलते रहे, परंतु साझा ढांचे की कल्पना आज भी विवादों के दलदल में फंसी हुई है। सेना और उससे जुड़े अभिजात वर्ग ने साझेदारी को परे रखकर केवल नियंत्रण और लाभ की राजनीति की। विपक्षी दल और सेना-विरोधी गुट भी अपनी-अपनी सीमाओं में उलझे और बंटे हुए हैं। कोई सीमित स्वायत्तता पर संतुष्ट है तो कोई पूर्ण आत्मनिर्णय के बिना भविष्य को अंधकारमय मानता है। यही बंटवारा जुंटा के पतन के बाद भी किसी नए प्रभुत्वशाली वर्ग के उभरने की आशंका को जीवित रखता है। यह केवल संविधान, चुनाव और प्रतिनिधित्व का सवाल नहीं है; यह उस राजनीतिक संस्कृति के पुनर्जन्म का प्रश्न है, जो हर आवाज़ को सुने और हर स्वप्न को स्थान दे।

Iran’s ‘Pivot’ to Asia: Quest for Survival and Regional Cooperation

This monograph attempts to analyse Iran's Look East strategy, which became the macro framework of Iran's foreign policy after the US withdrawal from the nuclear deal in 2018 and more effectively under President Ebrahim Raisi. It delves into various geopolitical and economic drivers of Iran's pursuit of long-term partnerships with China and Russia. It seeks to understand how Iran's regional policy is responding to the new geopolitical dynamics in Central Asia and the Caucasus following the US withdrawal from Afghanistan, Russia's invasion of Ukraine and Azerbaijan's victory in the second Nagorno-Karabakh war. It also examines the problems and prospects in India-Iran ties, especially in the context of Iran's Look East strategy.

Taliban’s Amnesty: An Assessment

The Taliban's unwritten and ambiguous 'general amnesty' neither implies Tpolitical integration nor national reconciliation. It's about total control, and about who gets to stay and who gets to come back, and on what terms. In the absence of any credible political opposition, and with more and more Afghans being deported or forced to return to the country, including the exiled members of the previous regime, the Taliban's Contact Commission will remain in business in the foreseeable future. However, reports of violation of 'general amnesty' by the Taliban members, particularly in the case of mid and low ranking former military personnel, have exposed the limitations to the implementation of the amnesty decree across the country.