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  • Change of Guard in China: The Context and the Actors

    Due to circumstances prevailing inside and outside China, a lot is expected from the new leaders and thus this leadership change is a vastly important process for China and for the world.

    November 12, 2012

    DF-41: China’s answer to the US BMD efforts

    US efforts to improve and expand its BMD system would degrade Chinese nuclear retaliatory capability thus forcing China to go for a qualitative and quantitative improvement of its nuclear force by deploying more ballistic missiles with MIRV and MARV capability and penetration aids.

    November 12, 2012

    The Commissioning of Liaoning: An Example of China’s Declaratory Strategy?

    Since the commissioning of the Liaoning in itself does not change the present balance of power, it makes more sense if it is interpreted as a diplomatic message especially to the ASEAN countries.

    October 22, 2012

    A Resurgent China: South Asian Perspective

    AResurgent China: South Asian Perspective, edited by Tan Tai Yong and S.D. Muni, is a timely book. The simultaneous rise of India and China is a defining reality of the Asian and global order. The trajectory of Sino-Indian relations will have an impact on South Asia. Since the mid-1980s, the two countries have made efforts to unfreeze the relationship, and in the last 10 years the Sino-Indian bilateral relationship has been transformed politically and economically.

    September 2012

    China's National Interests: Exploring the Domestic Discourse

    China's emergence as a global actor has fuelled much speculation over its ‘intentions’ in the long term. Arguably, debates on the issue have centred around China's growing military and economic power and concurrent challenges to the maintenance of the existing status quo in the international system. This article seeks to understand China's foreign policy motivations by studying the conceptualisation of ‘national interest’ within China.

    September 2012

    Xi Jinping’s Mysterious Disappearance amidst Uncertain Political Environment

    Xi Jinping’s sudden disappearance, close to the date of the 18th Party Congress when he is to take over as the as the next President, has activated the rumour mill in China and the world. The unfolding political drama in Beijing resembles the climax of an action packed thriller.

    September 15, 2012

    Vishal Kisan Kamble asked: What are China's interests in Syria?

    P.K. Pradhan replies: Syria is an important country for China in the West Asian region. While the region has been dominated by the USA, other powers like China and Russia have been vying for influence among the countries in the region. The recent conflict in Syria and China’s use of veto on the resolutions against the Assad regime has brought to fore the Chinese actions and interests in the country. For China, Syria is a strategic ally in the troubled region and in recent times both the countries have attempted to strengthen their relationship.

    China enjoys good relationship with Iran as well and at times has tried to take advantage of Iran’s close ties with Syria in strengthening its foothold in the region. Thus, strategically, China’s relationship with regimes like Iran and Syria challenges the traditional American dominance in the region. It also makes clear the Chinese intention of playing a role in the troubled region, though the Chinese leaders shy away of making such statements in public. During the vote on the Syrian issue in the UN Security Council, China was opposed to the use of force for regime change and had demanded a peaceful settlement of the conflict through dialogue and consultation, which shows that they have stakes involved with the current regime.

    On the economic front, China is an important trading partner of Syria. The bilateral trade is heavily in favour of China. In 2011, China’s exports to Syria totalled US$ 2.4 billion, while imports from Syria stood at US$ 26 million. China also has stakes in Syria’s oil industry with the state-owned China National Petroleum Corporation (CNPC) signing huge deals for exploration and developmental activities in the country. Furthermore, China intends to use Syria, given its geographical proximity with the EU, Africa and other West Asian countries, as a trading hub for its products.

    Jaya Pradeep asked: How should India deal between the official “one-China” stance and the unofficial recognition to Tibet? What factors should be considered?

    Jagannath P. Panda replies: India’s “one-China stance” and “unofficial recognition of Tibet” are two different issues. In my opinion, they should not at all be linked together. The “one-China” stance is a political and diplomatic issue, used generally in the context of China’s “Taiwan” problem. But in the context of rising complexity in the Sino-Indian relations over the boundary and the Tibet issue, the “one-China” stance could be an ideal handle for building pressure on China if India decides to take a bold step in order to counter the Chinese stance in the bordering regions over various issues. In fact, India’s official recognition of Tibet as an “integral part of China” should seriously be revisited, considering that China has not taken a clear and public political stance about Jammu and Kashmir being an “integral part of India”.

    In my view, India must bring China around to take a clear and decisive public stance on three issues: Jammu and Kashmir, Sikkim and Arunachal Pradesh. Though China has taken an open stance once in a while in recognising Sikkim as a part of India, there is no guarantee that China will not revisit its stance on Sikkim in future. Beijing’s recent posture over Jammu and Kashmir and Arunachal Pradesh has also been problematic. If China does not take an open and public stance on these three issues vital for India in consonance with India’s unambiguously stated positions, then India must seriously revise its Tibet policy, and de-recognise Tibet as an “integral” part of the People’s Republic of China (PRC). This also becomes more relevant when bordering issues like water dispute, Chinese construction work in the Pakistan-occupied Kashmir (POK) and the problem in handling the Tibetan refugees effectively have emerged as new additions to the existing border complexity between the two countries.

    I believe that India should consider two immediate factors. First, building diplomatic pressure on China to take a clear public stance on issues vital to India and its territorial integrity; second, a clear message should be conveyed to China that it needs to appreciate India’s democratic values with regard to the Tibetan refugees and the Dalai Lama. Under no circumstances should India henceforth take a public stance recognising Tibet as an “integral part of China”, unless China clarifies its position publicly and clearly on Arunachal Pradesh at least. This is important when there is a leadership transition taking place in China in 2012-13. Besides, it is high time that India seriously utilised the presence, services and the human resource of the 100,000 odd Tibetan refugees who have been living within its territory for decades.

    Alienated People and an Overcautious state in China’s Xinjiang

    While China’s desire for economic prosperity in Xinjiang may be achievable, it has not seemingly found any solution to the sense of alienation felt by the local Uighurs.

    August 09, 2012

    The Military Media and its Relevance for China

    The role of the media in China has been one where it is expected to be the ‘mouthpiece’ of the party. Media outlets have been used by the Chinese Communist Party (CCP) as propaganda wings and are expected to inform the people about the CCP’s policies and actions. In addition, the introduction of the Internet has transformed the media landscape. There has been a steady increase in the number of Internet users and blogs in China.

    July 2012