As the United States seeks to draw down its security forces in Afghanistan, India faces a serious policy conundrum. It has made, as Vishal Chandra argues, significant developmental and infrastructural investments in the country. If the US military withdrawal is significant, even if not precipitate, it may leave the field open to a reconstitution of the Taliban within the country. Such an outcome will dramatically enhance Pakistani influence in the country and thereby place India's very substantial commitments to date at risk.
The 21st century may not hold the same strategic logic of the 1960s and 1970s towards discovering outer space. Over a period of time, particularly after the end of the Cold War, space appears to have lost some, if not all, of its strategic significance. During 2004, the then US president, George W. Bush, had argued that the 21st century moon exploration initiative by the US should be viewed as part of a journey and not a race. Mostly, the peaceful voyage of global activities in space got a jolt when China conducted an anti-satellite test (ASAT) during January 2007.
The present paper discusses about the new great instability in Afghanistan which had emerged after 2001. It builds four scenarios by looking into the impending American withdrawal from Afghanistan and states that for President Obama, a stable and democratic government is most desirable but it would prefer to leave it after building a coalition government with local actors as the US is more worried about a stable government in Afghanistan, not necessarily a democratic one.
The US needs to take direct charge of the peace talks prong of strategy to meet the mid-2011 deadline of beginning its troops withdrawal as well as to enable NATO departure by 2014.
International security analysts must begin a discussion on how reductions in the U.S. defence budget will influence the nature of bilateral security relationships across Asia
Given the fragility of ISAF’s southern lines of communication passing through Pakistan, India could consider offering a passage through its territory as a meaningful alternative.
India must stay engaged, keep a low profile, earn the goodwill of the Afghan people through its multifaceted assistance programme, and stay away from any costly misadventure in the security sector.
Sino-US rivalry has been simmering for the past many years, as China has replaced Russia in the American scheme of things as its most potent adversary.
India has been fairly successful in firewalling the radical blowback emanating from Pakistan in the past and need not be overly worried about the impending US withdrawal.
The New START, its positives, and the imponderables
The durability of the New START will depend largely on how both sides value it as a means towards disarmament rather than for strategic competition.