The paper presents initial results from a limited exercise to apply Social Network Analysis (SNA) methodology to the database on terrorism created in IDSA called Terrorism Tracker (or T2).
The psychological dimension of a conflict is as important as its physical dimension and psychological Operations (PSYOPs) have become even more relevant in this age of information, especially for a nation-state where the threat in the socio-psychological domain is more pronounced. While combating the menace of terrorism, the psychological dimension assumes great significance, as terrorists use violence as a psychological weapon by terrorising the multitude, rather than physically affect a few, and in this sense, they fight a psychological war also.
Assam, one of the seven states of the northeastern region of India, has long remained one of the most volatile and sensitive regions in the country because of the problems of insurgency, ethnic conflict, pressure of migration, underdevelopment etc. Bodos, the largest plains tribe of Assam started an armed struggle for a separate state in the mid-1980s. This armed struggle led to ethnic cleansing of the non-Bodos along the north bank of the Brahmaputra.
Terrorism in the state of Jammu and Kashmir has completed almost 15 years. It marked its arrival with blasts in Srinagar city in 1988 and subsequently expanded to other parts in a well-planned and organised manner. It has the ingredients of a professionally run movement. Initially, majority of the terrorists were locals who had crossed over to Pakistan in large groups in 1987 and returned after obtaining training, but gradually the foreigners, mostly Pakistanis, replaced them. Locals or foreigners, terrorists depend fully on the public support—obtained voluntarily or through coercion.
The scourge of terrorism has haunted Indian policy-makers since independence. Some of the states, particularly the bordering states, having different cultural and ethnic composition from the heartland, suffered from a real or perceived sense of neglect and misgovernance. Inimical powers exploited this aspect and sowed seeds of sedition and secession amongst some sections of society of these states-particularly the states of the North-East, Punjab and Jammu and Kashmir-by providing them with arms training and financial support and instigated them to take up arms against the state machinery.
This paper examines the nature of the emerging international security system and its positive and negative implications for India's security calculus. The key features of the international security system are confrontation, and cooperation and accommodation, and these often up several possibilities of threats, challenges and opportunities for India. To India's credit, despite the worsening of its geo-strategic environment, the country's policy-making structures have displayed the capacity to remain flexible and responsive to changes for furthering its security and national interests.
