The Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA) organised a talk on “The German Election” by Ms. Britta Peterson, Regional Director for South Asia, the Rosa-Luxemburg-Stiftung on 4 March 2025. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, chaired the event. The Institute’s scholars were in attendance.

Executive Summary

The German election could impact Germany’s domestic situation and have implications for Europe.  The main focus would be on who forms the government and what kind of impact the rise of the AfD party would have. Questions on how the new leadership would tackle the relationship with Russia will arise. The recent situation surrounding the Ukraine War also has a long-term impact on the overall European security architecture and the relationship of the European Union with the North Atlantic Treaty Organisation.

Detailed Report

The Director General, Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, delivered his Opening Remarks, in which he discussed the recent German election results and the political shifts in the leadership post election. He highlighted the recent success of the Alternative fur Deutschland (AfD) and how the party occupying second-place in the election gives a message about how right wing parties across Europe are emerging. He brought out how the debate on immigration has been seen across Europe.

According to the Director General, the new government in Germany has to contend with both internal issues and challenges, as well as the possibility of spending even more to support Ukraine’s war or pay for post-war reconstruction. The other challenge is external, which is the great fissure that is appearing in the transatlantic partnership. Questions arise as to what the future of NATO holds and also the future of the EU.

Ms. Britta Peterson began by analysing the recent preliminary results, focusing on the data and the share of vote that each party received. She then focused on how a coalition is needed to form the government and the options that can be considered to form the said coalition. She emphasised on the record voter turnout and how the electorate voted across the political parties in Germany. She said that though Chancellor Friedrich Merz was the favourite in a popularity poll to ascertain who among the leaders could lead the nation, he won only with a small majority. She said among the relevant issues that determined the voters’ choice; illegal immigration, development, domestic security, economic growth, environment and climate, peace, and global security were dominant.  She also shared election data to reflect on how various age groups and genders voted and the multiple divisions among the voters based on region. She highlighted the recent news that there is discussion to form a coalition between the Christian Democrats and the Social Democrats.

Ms. Peterson then highlighted the uniqueness of Friedrich Merz who won the election and is likely to be the Chancellor. He has never held political office and comes from an elite background, yet he received the support of the people, in spite of German politics being a strong bastion of the middle class. Ms. Peterson emphasised on how during his campaign, he was oscillating between a traditional value-based conservative ideological standing and then being critical of the Greens and the Social Democrats on election day. According to Ms. Peterson, he is an unpredictable leader. She said that there is a chance of a coalition government by Easter. Once a coalition is formed, there could be negotiations on the budget by August or even before, based on the urgency. Recently, Merz said that he wanted to develop a special budget of about 900 billion Euros, of which he wanted to spend one-half on German infrastructure and the other half on defence. According to Ms. Peterson, the idea of this special budget was a bit controversial, given that the last German coalition collapsed due to the system of German debt brake.

One of the reasons why German infrastructure has been neglected is because investments into infrastructure are not coming because of this debt brake. Especially parties on the left, the Social Democrats, the Greens, but also the Left Party, have been demanding for a long time that this debt brake that puts restrictions on spending needs to go, but it can be only reversed with a two-third majority in parliament. Parties on the left are not in favour of going for special budgets anymore, because they want to remove the debt brake so as to give the government more flexibility in the changing geopolitical situation.

Ms. Peterson also talked about the recent meeting of the Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelensky in the White House and controversy surrounding the meeting. She said that Germany and Europe are well aware of the recent geopolitical tectonic shifts. She mentioned how Americans have been pursuing a campaign focused on Asia, which began with former United States President Obama’s “Pivot to Asia” speech. According to Ms. Peterson, it was clear that America wanted the Europeans to focus on its defence and take more responsibility, and now that has become a reality. She feels Europe needs to build its defence capacities and streamline the defence production market. She gave the example of the Airbus industry and how it can inspire the defence sector.

The Speaker stated that Europeans need a clearer political understanding since their opinions are fragmented regarding their approach to Russia. She then discussed the rise of the far right in Europe and how it has impacted European politics. She concluded that Europe needs to grow into an independent pole in the emerging world order that includes Russia, China, the United States and India.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, complimented the speaker on her presentation. He highlighted the defence spending budget of the Europeans and the United States with reference to the NATO. He then brought up the role of China in the world order. He asked about the possibility of the United States reducing its troops in Europe, particularly in Germany, and how it would impact NATO. He also asked if Germany would spend much more on defence? What would Europe’s reaction be if the German military-industrial complex expands? Lastly, when Germany and Europe as a whole are grappling with fascism and non-democratic impulses, does it dampen European proclivity to counsel others about democracy and backsliding?

Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai asked about the rise of the far right in Germany, the victory of the AfD, how the media has been viewing the rise of the AfD, and the state of German democracy. Secondly, she also asked how Germany looks at the ‘Coalition of the Willing’ announced by the British Prime Minister.

Dr. Jason Wahlang asked about the rise of the far right, particularly in Eastern Germany.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy questioned the United States and its role in Europe. He also asked if Europe could support Ukraine without the United States’ support.

Ms. Shruti Pandalai asked about the future of European security and wanted to know about Europe’s relations with China.

Dr. Arnab Dasgupta asked about gender trends and the support of the far right in the recent German election and whether Elon Musk’s support for the far right impacted the polls.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik asked about terror attacks in Gemany and whether they impact anti-immigration debates.

Ms. Britta Peterson gave detailed explanations to all the questions and comments raised, and the talk ended with a big round of applause from the audience.

Report Prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi