MP-IDSA hosted a talk on Emerging Arctic Security Dynamics featuring Dr. Andreas Østhagen, Senior Research Fellow at the Fridtjof Nansen Institute, Oslo, and Dr. Andreas Raspotnik, Director at the High North Center for Business and Governance, Nord University, Bodø, Norway. The event took place on 17 March 2025. The discussion was moderated by Dr. Uttam Kumar Sinha, Senior Fellow and Coordinator NTS Centre.

Detailed Report

Dr. Sinha opened the session by introducing the speakers and highlighting key aspects of the ongoing geopolitical shifts in the Arctic. In his opening remarks, he emphasised MP-IDSA’s pivotal role in shaping India’s Arctic Policy, noting the Institute’s longstanding commitment to Arctic research. He recalled that in 2012, MP-IDSA published the first-ever ‘Special Issue’ on the Arctic in its flagship journal, Strategic Analysis, featuring contributions from renowned global experts. He further highlighted that, after more than a decade, the Institute released another ‘Special Issue’ on the Arctic in December 2024, now available online. Dr. Sinha acknowledged the valuable contributions of Arctic scholars from the Fridtjof Nansen Institute (FNI) to this latest publication. Stressing the importance of continued collaboration, he underscored the need to strengthen ties between FNI and MP-IDSA to advance Arctic research further.

Following these remarks, Dr. Sinha invited Dr. Østhagen to begin his presentation.

Dr. Andreas Østhagen, began his presentation with a geographical overview of the Arctic, setting the stage for a discussion on its evolving landscape. He pointed out scientific projections indicating that the Arctic could become ice-free by 2050, a development that brings both opportunities and challenges with far-reaching implications for global geopolitics and state relations. Turning to India’s Arctic interests, Dr. Østhagen highlighted the six pillars of India’s Arctic policy, emphasising the vast potential for India-Norway cooperation in the region. He underscored how these policy pillars could serve as a framework for strengthening bilateral engagement, particularly in areas such as climate research, sustainable development, and strategic partnerships.

In the second part of his presentation, Dr. Østhagen underscored the crucial role of geography in shaping both economic opportunities and emerging challenges in the Arctic. He stressed that any discussion on resource exploitation, sea routes, or extended continental shelf claims must begin with a fundamental question: “Which part of the Arctic are we referring to?” He illustrated this point by highlighting the stark contrasts within the region. The Russian Arctic, he noted, is vastly different from the Norwegian Arctic, just as the Arctic territories of Canada, the US, and Europe each have distinct geographical characteristics. These variations, in turn, translate into unique challenges and opportunities—from resource distribution to shipping lanes and broader geopolitical implications.

By emphasising these regional differences, Dr. Østhagen reinforced the idea that a one-size-fits-all approach to Arctic policymaking is neither practical nor effective. Instead, he advocated for a more nuanced, region-specific understanding to navigate the complexities of this rapidly evolving frontier.

Delving into the geopolitical flashpoints of the Arctic, Dr. Østhagen highlighted that the risk of real geopolitical tensions, conflicts, or contestations is significantly higher in the European Arctic compared to the North Pacific Arctic. He attributed this to several critical factors, including:

• Russia-NATO strategic posturing in the GIUK gap (Greenland-Iceland-UK), a key maritime chokepoint.
• The heavy militarisation of the region, with 50–60% of Russia’s nuclear arsenal stationed in the Arctic.
• An escalating arms race, as both Russia and NATO ramp up the scale and frequency of military exercises in the region.

Dr. Østhagen further warned that Russia’s actions in the Arctic cannot be taken at face value. He pointed to Moscow’s growing cooperation with Beijing, arguing that this evolving Russia-China nexus adds another layer of complexity to European security. The recent joint naval patrols by Russian and Chinese vessels near Alaska, as well as their coordinated air patrols, have set off alarm bells among NATO allies operating in the region. For Norway, these developments present heightened security challenges making closer cooperation with NATO partners not just important, but essential for ensuring stability in the Arctic.

Touching on the ongoing debate surrounding Greenland, Dr. Østhagen pointed out that while the US already maintains a military base there, Greenland holds little strategic significance from a shipping perspective. He emphasised that much of the discourse around Greenland’s geopolitical importance tends to be overstated when viewed through the lens of Arctic trade routes.

As he wrapped up his presentation, Dr. Østhagen shifted focus to Norway’s unique position in the Arctic. With a 200-kilometer-long border with Russia, Norway has historically engaged in active cooperation with Moscow on various regional issues. Despite the current geopolitical climate, he noted that some functional cooperation continues, particularly in areas like fish stock management and Svalbard governance. While most Western nations have suspended formal collaborations with Russia, Dr. Østhagen stressed the importance of maintaining a working relationship with Moscow in the Arctic, recognising that regional stability requires ongoing dialogue.

He concluded by expressing optimism about India’s growing role in Arctic affairs and underscored the potential for deeper research collaborations between MP-IDSA and FNI. As India continues to expand its Arctic engagement, he emphasised that fostering academic and policy-driven partnerships would be mutually beneficial.

Dr. Andreas Raspotnik began his presentation by echoing several key arguments made by his colleague, emphasising that geography remains central to understanding the Arctic. He stressed that for Arctic scholars, it is crucial not only to analyse how non-Arctic states perceive the region but also to examine how Arctic nations themselves view it from their southern capitals—such as Oslo, Helsinki, and Stockholm, which, despite belonging to Arctic states, are geographically removed from the Arctic itself.

While security and geopolitics dominate global discussions on the Arctic, Dr. Raspotnik argued that economic development, demographic shifts, and societal challenges must not be overlooked. These factors, he noted, are equally critical in shaping the Arctic’s future.

Building on his colleague’s points, he highlighted the importance of understanding how the Arctic impacts the Global South, particularly India. One recurring theme in Arctic discourse, he noted, is its link to climate change—a phenomenon with far-reaching consequences for regions far beyond the Arctic itself. If climate change in the Arctic is indeed affecting the Global South, what tangible actions are being taken—either in the Arctic or in the Global South—to address these challenges? This, he emphasised, is a question that demands greater scrutiny.

In the second part of his talk, Dr. Raspotnik examined the decline of ‘Arctic exceptionalism’, the idea that the Arctic had remained insulated from global geopolitical tensions. He argued that this notion has faded significantly since Russia’s invasion of Ukraine, as cooperation within the Arctic Council has largely stalled.

Looking ahead, he suggested that the future of the Arctic will be shaped by geopolitical developments far beyond its borders. He underscored the importance of understanding how non-Arctic states, like India, perceive the ongoing power shifts and strategic alignments in the region.

Dr. Raspotnik also pointed to Finland and Sweden’s accession to NATO, which has further complicated the Arctic’s security landscape. This shift, he noted, has introduced new dynamics that will influence the region’s strategic calculus for years to come.

Concluding his remarks, Dr. Raspotnik highlighted India’s growing role on the global stage, arguing that its relationships with Russia, its observer status in the Arctic Council, and its leadership in international affairs make India’s future involvement in the Arctic more significant than ever before. As the Arctic undergoes profound geopolitical, economic, and environmental transformations, India’s perspective and engagement will be crucial in shaping the region’s trajectory.

Questions and Comments

During the Q&A session, Mr. Arvind Khare invited the speakers to delve deeper into the social and demographic aspects of Arctic indigenous communities in the Norwegian Arctic, highlighting the importance of understanding their evolving challenges and resilience in a rapidly changing environment.

Capt. Anurag Bisen from the Vivekananda International Foundation posed a thought-provoking question on the ‘Norwegianisation of Svalbard,’ seeking insights into the political and governance dynamics shaping the archipelago. He further inquired whether the Antarctic Treaty Consultative Meeting (ATCM) model could be applied to Svalbard to regulate research and governance in the region.

In response, Dr. Østhagen and Dr. Raspotnik provided in-depth perspectives, addressing the complexities of indigenous identity, governance structures, and international legal frameworks influencing the Arctic.

The session concluded with a concise summary by the chair, encapsulating the key discussions and insights shared.

Report prepared by Dr. Bipandeep Sharma, Research Analyst, Non-Traditional Security Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.