Dr. Anand Kumar, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Bangladesh’s Interim Government and the Evolving Security Landscape in India’s Northeast” during the Monday Morning Meeting held on 21 July 2025. The session was moderated by Dr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, and scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The discussion addressed the political shift in Bangladesh under the interim government led by Professor Muhammad Yunus and its implications for India’s national security, especially in the northeastern states. Dr. Anand Kumar highlighted the concerning rise in illegal border crossings, the escalation of Islamist extremism, and the expanding power of a strategic China-Pakistan-Bangladesh-Turkey axis. The shifting foreign policy posture of Bangladesh, which has grown more hostile towards India, and the growing influence of outside players like Turkey and Pakistan were given special consideration. Enhanced surveillance, diplomatic reorientation, and the selective suspension of development projects were all part of India’s strategic response. Recommendations for immediate, medium-, and long-term policy changes to protect India’s eastern frontier and wider strategic interests were made at the end of the discussion.

Detailed Report

Dr. O.P. Das introduced the topic and invited Dr. Kumar to make his presentation. Dr. Anand Kumar began the presentation by providing background information on the formation of Bangladesh’s interim government and its stated intention to carry out reforms before the next elections. He maintained that the government’s actions signalled a dramatic change in Bangladesh’s political stance both domestically and internationally, especially in relation to India. He also pointed out that prior restrictions on organisations like Jamaat-e-Islami have been lifted by the interim government, enabling them to publicly spread Islamist beliefs. Additionally, a number of educational and medical institutions with established ties to Islamists have gained authority. This action comes at a time when extremist activity has significantly increased throughout Bangladesh, with militant organisations re-establishing infrastructure and networks. Particularly in light of recent violent events in West Bengal, cross-border radicalisation was highlighted. Dr. Kumar raised concerns about Bangladesh’s public self-identification as an “extension of China’s economy”.

According to Dr. Kumar, pro-Pakistan and Islamist elements are currently filling the political void left by the fall of an India-friendly government in Dhaka. He emphasised the antagonistic stance taken by the interim leadership towards India, as demonstrated by the rise in anti-India rhetoric and policy initiatives. The development of a new strategic axis involving China, Pakistan, and Bangladesh was highlighted by citing Chief of Defence Staff (CDS) General Anil Chauhan’s statement. The speaker highlighted China’s growing strategic and economic influence in Bangladesh citing current infrastructure projects like the expansion of Mongla port and possible long-term management contracts.

Dr. Kumar explained how Pakistan has acted quickly to re-establish connections with radical Islamist groups and resurrect its dormant intelligence networks in Bangladesh. It is believed that this re-engagement is a component of a larger effort to encircle India and exacerbate regional instability. Turkey’s increasing prominence in Bangladesh as a recent and alarming development was also addressed. Turkish military cooperation, including the export of drones for reconnaissance missions close to India’s eastern border, was mentioned by the speaker. According to intelligence reports, Turkey is actively supporting Islamic organisations in Bangladesh and is thinking about collaborating on defence-related industrial projects there. With ongoing leadership changes in nations like Sri Lanka, Nepal, and the Maldives, the changing political landscape in South Asia was examined. The Rakhine Corridor, a planned logistical project that has provoked protests from the Bangladesh Army over sovereignty, was mentioned.

In order to combat Turkish and Chinese influence, Dr. Kumar highlighted India’s multi-pronged strategic response, which consists of heightened border monitoring, targeted diplomatic outreach, and utilising global alliances. While development and soft power initiatives in Indian border regions have increased, a strategic suspension of certain Indian projects in Bangladesh was characterised as a symbolic gesture meant to convey diplomatic disapproval.

Dr. Kumar outlined a thorough, three-tiered plan for India to respond to the changing circumstances in Bangladesh as he wrapped up his presentation. He suggested strengthening border security, improving intelligence cooperation, and pursuing selective diplomatic engagement with Dhaka in the near future. He underlined the significance of restoring India’s political and cultural clout in Bangladeshi civil society over the medium term and advancing contemporary Islamic discourse in opposition to extremist narratives. In order to prepare for hybrid threats posed by the emerging China-Pakistan-Bangladesh-Turkey strategic axis, Dr. Kumar recommended that the northeastern states of India prioritise economic and industrial development while also fortifying their military infrastructure. He emphasised that India’s response needs to be multifaceted, striking a balance between defence and diplomacy.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, began his comments by considering the intricate internal politics of Bangladesh and its changing relationship with India. He pointed out that although Sheikh Hasina’s administration had always had friendly ties with New Delhi, this did not always mean that Bangladeshi society as a whole was pro-India. Ambassador Chinoy also underlined the fine balancing act Hasina has had to do between maintaining diplomatic ties with India and appeasing domestic anti-Indian elements. He also questioned why the United States was left out of the larger conversation, pointing out Washington’s ongoing strategic presence in South Asia, and urged a more nuanced understanding of the geopolitical dynamics surrounding Bangladesh’s outreach to China and Turkey.

A number of speakers expressed apprehension regarding the political void resulting from the banning of Awami League, cautioning that it could hasten the radicalisation of disenchanted young people. One scholar emphasised how educated, urban youth along India’s eastern border are being radicalised by digital ecosystems, such as Telegram. One emerging threat that necessitates proactive strategic attention is the possibility of ideological realignment, particularly in areas that border northeastern India.

Professor Yunus’ draft constitution, which controversially substitutes the terms ‘pluralism’ and ‘equality’ for the term ‘secularism’ was also the focus of attention. Scholars discussed how this shift would affect India-Bangladesh relations, particularly in light of recent events such as the building of the Lalmonirhat Air Base, where possible Chinese involvement has sparked concerns in Indian security circles. In this context, the Bangladesh Army’s impact on the interim government and the schedule for the country’s national elections were also covered.

In order to combat the changing geopolitical landscape in South Asia, the session concluded with a call for India to take a multifaceted, flexible approach that combines diplomatic outreach with strategic assertiveness.

Report has been prepared by Ms. Saanya Sidhra, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA, New Delhi.