Dr. Rajorshi Roy, Associate Fellow, Europe and Eurasia Centre, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), spoke on “Taking Stock of the Three-Year War in Ukraine” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 May 2025. Dr. Cherian Samuel, Research Fellow, North America and Strategic Technologies Centre, MP-IDSA, chaired the session. Scholars of the Institute attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The Russia-Ukraine war continues. The notable development, however, is a perceived shift in the U.S. policy under President Donald Trump. This has the potential to alter the dynamics of this conflict. Sanctions, energy security, future of the transatlantic alliance and diplomatic initiatives define the current phase. Prospects for peace depend on resolving deep-rooted security concerns among Russia, Ukraine and broader transatlantic stakeholders.

Detailed Report

In his opening remarks, Dr. Cherian Samuel introduced the topic. He gave a background of the war and past incidents since 2014, including in cyberspace, that led to the conflict. The kinetic attack of February 2022 has seen large-scale destruction, loss of civilian lives and migration of the population out of Ukraine. He emphasised that neither nation is likely to back down from its stated position to bring the war to an end. Lastly, he highlighted the recent initiatives of the United States of America under President Trump towards seeking a ceasefire.

Dr. Rajorshi Roy began his presentation by describing how February 2022 has shaped the European security architecture. He stated that a once well-resolved and well-defined structure has now been left in tatters. He observed that the war is not just a conflict related to territory, and not just a war between Russia and Ukraine, but a proxy war between Russia and the West. He then pointed out that the war has become a battle of attrition over the last 3.5 years.

Dr. Roy focused on the reorientation of American policy under the Trump Presidency. He highlighted the US overtures towards Russia including seeking to reset ties with Moscow. He mentioned that Russia is no longer seen as a pariah in the United States, and the recent meetings and conversations between the political leaderships are a sign of a shift from the previous administration of President Biden, which sought total isolation and boycott of Russia.

American Vice President JD Vance’s statement at the Munich Security Conference in mid-February 2025 and the clash between President Trump and Ukrainian President Volodymyr Zelenskyy in end February 2025, which was publicly televised, has rattled Europe. These developments raise questions about the future of the transatlantic partnership, including NATO. This has also raised the prospects of re-arrangement of great power relations between the United States, Russia, Europe and China, anchored to the idea of spheres of influence.

Dr. Roy then briefly recapped the war, including the background, current status, Russia’s reasons for attacking Ukraine and Western support for Kiev. He highlighted the impact of the sanctions on Russia and its economy, how Russia became a pariah for the G7 and how Europe took up initiatives to wean itself away from Russian gas. He then touched upon the impact of the war on Ukraine and its economy, resources, energy infrastructure and manpower.

Dr. Roy then examined whether the European Union could prop up Ukraine and fill any vacuum left by the United States. He stressed the importance of American economic and military support in propping up Ukraine.

Dr. Roy focused on diplomatic initiatives, including the Istanbul Talks, the first direct conversation between Russia and Ukraine, the position taken by both parties, and the significant outcomes of the negotiations. He also highlighted the US-Ukraine minerals deal and its major terms.

Dr. Roy discussed the Russia-China relationship and how the recent détente between Russia and the US could impact it. He stressed that Russia would unlikely trade its partnership with China for a fragile bargain with the United States. He then discussed the Russia-India relationship and how the Russia-US détente benefits India, providing it with more breathing space. He also focused on the recent record oil imports from Russia to India.

While concluding, Dr. Roy stressed that no durable peace can be achieved unless Russia, Ukraine and the West address their mutual insecurities and fears. Ukraine is embedded in the larger question of European security and the speaker highlighted that the discussions on post-war security would be crucial.

Questions and Answers

The session concluded with an insightful exchange of views among scholars during the Q&A session regarding Article 5 of the NATO, the Lisbon Treaty, North Korean personnel fighting for Russia in Ukraine, impact of the war in East Asia, role of “middle powers” in the conflict, possibilities of escalation, the critical minerals deal between US and Ukraine, Zelenskyy’s leadership, Rupee-Rouble trade and future of nuclear deterrence. Dr. Rajorshi Roy responded to the comments and the questions raised by MP-IDSA scholars.

The report has been prepared by Dr. Jason Wahlang, Research Analyst, Europe and Eurasia Centre, MP-IDSA.