The Battle for Kabul has Begun
The planned Western draw down over the next two years is threatening to once again plunge Afghanistan into greater chaos and anarchy, with Kabul as the centre stage.
- Vishal Chandra |
- April 18, 2012 |
He Worked at Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses.
The planned Western draw down over the next two years is threatening to once again plunge Afghanistan into greater chaos and anarchy, with Kabul as the centre stage.
Bonn II made it somewhat clear that there is at least an evolving discourse and a fleeting sense of realisation in Western capitals that Afghanistan cannot simply be abandoned once again.
The subject assumes significance in view of the politics evolving around the idea of negotiating peace, especially with the Taliban, as the West plans to withdraw bulk of their troops by 2014. Though often regarded as flawed, ill-timed, regressive, wobbly, dangerous and unworkable, the idea has nevertheless come to dominate the discourse on the Afghan war. However, principal Afghan opposition forces and networks operating from Pakistan continue to publicly rebuff and mock at the government's initiative.
The historical baggage weighing on the Russo-Afghan relationship is apparently in the process of being jettisoned. The two countries have been cautiously reaching out and engaging each other for quite some time now. Afghan President Hamid Karzai's state visit to Moscow on 20–21 January 2011 – the first by an Afghan head of state in more than two decades – could be perceived as a major step forward.
The underlying message of Prime Minister Manmohan Singh’s visit is to convey to Pakistan, the US and the others that India has strategic interests in Afghanistan.
Despite the talk about India having key strategic interests in Afghanistan, it neither has the necessary resources nor the clout to influence developments in Afghanistan.
There is no cause for dismay over a growing sense of marginalisation of India in regional and international forums on the Afghan issue. Similarly, the resurgence of the Taliban and increasing Pakistani influence in Afghanistan should be seen as a temporary phenomenon. Sushant Sareen is right in arguing that the ‘turn of events’ in the ‘not so distant future’ could open up possibilities of India playing a larger role in Afghanistan.
The Afghan war has a long way to go. The situation has come to a point where with every passing month one wonders where the war is headed. There can be no doubt that it will be long before Afghanistan will be at peace with itself. At this moment, there does not seem to be any solution to the Afghan crisis. The Taliban and their allies, both Afghan and foreign, have notably succeeded in transforming the war to their advantage.
A new actor was inducted in the decades-old Afghan conflict when the North Atlantic Treaty Organization (NATO) assumed command of the UN-mandated International Security Assistance Force (ISAF) in August 2003. NATO's entry into the Afghan theatre took place in the backdrop of the US invasion of Iraq in March 2003. With the United States diverting its resources and greater attention to Iraq, NATO was to expand its operations throughout Afghanistan in support of the US-led coalition force in a phased manner.
The Jabhe-e-Melli or the National Front (NF) is largely considered inconsequential in Afghan politics. It is often dismissed as a loose mlange of elements from the former United Front or the Northern Alliance, some ex-communists, and former royalists, which is bound to wither away sooner than later. The Front is said to represent the interests of a political class which is disgruntled with the politics and the policies of President Hamid Karzai, and which is struggling to preserve its erstwhile status and relevance in the power politics of Afghanistan.