Session I: International Situation – Emerging Global Order

Chair: Amb. (retd) Rajiv Sikri

Speakers:

• Mr. Sergei Chugrov, Editor in Chief, Political Studies (POLIS) Journal
• Dr. Arvind Gupta, Director General, IDSA
• Mr. Alexander Lukin, Vice President (for Research and International Contact), Diplomatic Academy, Ministry of Foreign Affairs, Russian Federation
• Prof. Ajay Patnaik, Jawaharlal Nehru University

The Chair opened the session with his remarks on the current global order which he termed as being in a state of flux. In today’s multipolar world, the challenges are wide ranging and the roles that India and Russia play will undergo change. The most important factor that the changing world order has to contend with is the rise of Asia, specifically the rise of China. The chair also added that it is unfortunate that in Russia’s foreign policy priorities, India figures only in the second or the third tier. Amb Sikri also raised a couple of questions for the session to address which included a) Is the Asian dimension of Russia’s foreign policy gaining more importance? B) Can Russia have a foreign policy that is more Asia-oriented without giving importance to India?

Mr. Sergei Chugrov’s presentation on Russia’s Foreign Policy began with the characterization of Russia’s political mentality as one that is of both a strong as well as a weak state split between ‘a communist past and a capitalist present’ and a modern and conservative agenda, that is both western-like and traditional and is a ‘tiger’ and a ‘whale’ simultaneously. Russia’s foreign policy is based on these two principal political approaches - greater West through western values and the premise that competition is truly global. With the relative decline of America, Russia envisions itself as a rising power. It takes a self-assertive stance against the West and advocates collective leadership. Today, Russia is guided by purely pragmatic interests and not by ideological motivations and a large part of the Russian elite are anti-Western. The main threats to Russia’s security emerge in the short-term from its southern borders and in the long-term from China. In order to addresses these challenges, Russia has to resort to leveraging its economic strengths and soft power and not its military power.

Mr. Chugrov further elucidated on Russia’s foreign policy by arguing that the country wants to forget the ‘humiliation’ of the 1990s when it was not treated on par with America. Russia is not a ‘loser’ as it defeated communism. It also has the political responsibility to prevent further erosion of Russian identity in the post-Cold War period. It aims for cooperation, and not hostility, with the West and favours an equal relationship. With regard to its ties with European countries, it has proposed a transatlantic organization where the US is not a dominant power. Although it does not wish to become a part of the EU in the foreseeable future, it does have a strategic partnership with it. It cooperates on economic and environment issues, freedom, security, justice, external security and research and education. It also cooperates to address challenges such as climate change, human trafficking etc. Russia is also turning eastward towards India, China and the ASEAN countries. Summing it up, Mr. Chugrov argued that today in Russia’s foreign policy there is nothing in contradiction to rationality and it urges the US and other countries to think ahead and cooperate in the future.

Dr. Arvind Gupta highlighted the main tenets of India’s foreign policy. Unlike Russia, India has no doctrine on the principles of foreign policy. However, India’s policies are structured around two primary objectives – 1) Protection of the national sovereignty and territorial integrity and 2) Well-being of its people. As a result, the link between national security and development has grown stronger. With the massive redistribution of power in the global order, India has to reposition itself. It has to leverage its national strengths which are its demography, democratic institutions, political cohesion, economy etc.

Dr. Gupta then proceeded to give a region-wise overview of India’s foreign policy. Asia, which is home to great power rivalries, harbours much instability and therefore India has to approach the region strategically. China is one of the challenges for India. India has to deal with the unsettled border issues, China’s forays into South Asia and China-Pakistan nexus among other problems. Sino-India relations have to improve, become more nuanced. India cannot afford to have a hostile neighbour and therefore has to use a combination of both soft and hard power. India must begin to look for economic opportunities in China and leverage its strengths through regional cooperation and people-to-people contacts. Given Pakistan’s instability, India has to adopt a policy of deterrence and engagement towards the country. India should also use both positive as well as negative levers against Pakistan.

As far as India’s Look East policy is concerned, it is incomplete and there is a dearth of capabilities. It needs to enhance its ties with the countries in the region and integrate the north-east of India into this policy. West Asia holds strategic importance for India and though the region is conflict-ridden, it cannot afford to alienate any country. With regard to Central Asia, India has to engage it both bilaterally and multilaterally. Though India’s trade relations with Europe are significant, the strategic content of its partnership is diminishing. India has to look for long-term opportunities in Europe. India has to engage the African continent on a mixed model of society building and economic engagement. For India, Russia is a time-tested friend. However, this relationship has weakened over a period of time. Today Russia is closer to China and watches the Indo-US ties with concern. It also has to improve the economic content of its partnership. On the other hand, India has a strategic partnership with the US which is based on common values. In conclusion, Dr. Gupta stated that India’s foreign policy is backed by hard power with maritime and cyber and space security as key components of this policy. Today, domestic issues are playing a major role in shaping India’s foreign policy like never before.

Amb. (retd) Sikri argued that Russia supports India’s core foreign policy principles and the strategic partnership is born out of this. However, there is an insufficient understanding of the evolving times; Russia and India today are very different from what they were even a decade ago.

Speaking on Russia’s foreign policy towards Central Asia and Afghanistan, Mr. Alexander Lukin opined that the basic interests in Central Asia of all major powers coincide. Be it the US or China, their interests are similar which include maintaining political stability, maintaining secure regimes and speedy economic development. Interests of one nation need not undermine another nation’s interests. For Russia, Central Asia holds a special place because of the cultural unity between them. Mr. Lukin stated that it is a misconception that Putin is trying to revive Soviet Union but on the other hand, Russia is trying to maintain and revive civilizational unity through economic contact. The creation of a Customs Union and a united economic space is an outcome of this objective. The lack of border control will be win-win situation for all countries in the region. Therefore, Russia does not want to revive the political nature of the erstwhile Soviet Union. And owing to historical linkages with Central Asia, India should do more than what it is doing today. Through the SCO, Russia and India should work together to promote political stability and economic development in the region. India could be a model of democracy for the countries in Central Asia.

With regard to Afghanistan, Mr. Lukin said that the Russia sees the country as a big challenge. Terrorism and drug trafficking are major woes emerging from Afghanistan that Russia has to deal with. He also voiced Russia’s apprehensions about America’s future plans in the country and made a case for cooperation among the regional powers to tackle the instability that would prevail after the withdrawal of the international forces from Afghanistan.

Throwing light on Russia’s foreign policy towards CIS countries, Prof. Ajay Patnaik said that Russia is actively engaged with countries in the near abroad. In the 1990s, Russia’s interests in the region were undermined by American interests. However, under Putin Russia has tried to reassert itself in these countries without propagating the idea of a political centre. Prof Patnaik argued that the strengthening of Russian influence in the CIS countries would secure stability in the region. Eurasian integration will dominate the post-Soviet space. Prof. Patnaik enumerated three ways in which Russia uses its soft power in the CIS countries to influence them; a) democracy- in the past, Russia helped Central Asian states to resist outside interference in their transition to democratic governance, b) through Eurasianism which Russia uses as an alternative to empire-building, and c) Russia acts as a receptive valve for labour that migrates from the CIS countries. In such form of Eurasian integration, Russia will be the natural leader and one cannot dismiss the importance of Ukraine in the integration. The speaker concluded by stating that Russia has been successful in turning soft power to its political advantage and its influence has prevented the region from becoming a great power game.

In the discussion that followed, the issue of illegal Chinese immigration into Russia’s borders was brought up. The speakers from Russia did not view this as a major problem for the country’s security. On the issue of Iran, it was opined that Russia supports the country and maintains a strong position. Russia’s stance is similar to that of the other BRICS nations on reforming the international monetary organizations where developing countries have to be given a greater say.

Report prepared by Keerthi Sampath Kumar, Research Assistant, IDSA