Dr. Hirak Jyoti Das, Research Analyst, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analysis (MP-IDSA), delivered a presentation on “Locating Jordan in the Israel-Palestine Conflict” during the Monday Morning Meeting held on 25 August 2025. Dr. Deepika Saraswat, Associate Fellow at MP-IDSA, moderated the session. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director-General of MP-IDSA, attended the meeting, along with scholars from the Institute.

Executive Summary

The presentation offered a detailed analysis of the role of Jordan in the Israel-Palestine dynamics and how it has navigated through the conflict. The discussion also covered the trends in Jordan’s Palestinian Policy, ties with Israel, position towards Hamas, and its role in the Israel-Hamas War. The presentation also thoroughly covered Jordan’s concerns and its security cooperation with Israel.

Detailed Report

Initial Comments by the Moderator

In her opening remarks, Dr. Deepika Saraswat noted that Jordan, though often understudied, has significant influence in West Asia. As one of the few monarchies outside the Gulf, its strategic location gives it weight in regional affairs despite limited resources. She highlighted Jordan’s complex history with the Arab–Israeli conflict, including its occupation of the West Bank from 1948 to 1967 and renunciation of claims in 1988, while its custodianship of Islamic holy sites like the Al-Aqsa Mosque keeps it central to regional developments. Dr. Saraswat also noted Jordan’s security cooperation with Israel through the Peace Treaty, while pointing out the challenge posed by the Israeli proposal, supported by President Trump, to displace Palestinians into Jordan.

Presentation by Dr. Hirak Jyoti Das

Dr. Hirak Jyoti Das began his presentation by situating Jordan as a middle power with limited resources, which has lacked a strong economic base, with Jordan heavily relying on external support initially from Britain, then from the United States (US). Despite being surrounded by powerful neighbours, it has managed to protect its interests and ambitions beyond its capacity due to its pivotal role in Israel-Palestine dynamics and as a critical US ally. Jordan has maintained extensive ties and secret talks with Israel, and it was the second Arab State after Egypt to sign a Peace Treaty with Israel in 1994.

Dr. Das explained that Jordan’s Palestinian policy has undergone key trends. After the 1948 Arab-Israel War, Jordan integrated the West Bank, including East Jerusalem, granting citizenship to Palestinians to consolidate control. The loss of these territories in 1967 shifted policy toward preserving influence through custodianship of the Al-Aqsa Mosque, constitutional claims, and pro-Hashemite ties in the West Bank. The Palestinian Liberation Organisation (PLO)’s predominance in Palestinian affairs and anti-Jordanian sentiments during the 1987 Intifada led to disengagement from the West Bank in 1988. Jordan has preserved its influence in Israel-Palestine dynamics by focusing on safeguarding holy sites, supporting the Palestinian Authority (PA), and advocating for a two-state solution.

The Speaker noted that Jordan’s ties with Israel have a long and complex history. King Abdullah I and the Hashemites maintained secret contacts with the Zionist movement, sharing concerns over regional isolation and political vulnerability. After the 1948 war, Jordan viewed Israel as a balance against Nasser’s Egypt and the spread of Pan-Arabism and Marxism, which it saw as domestic threats, while Israel trusted King Hussein as a partner and a useful buffer. Jordan and Israel signed a Peace Treaty in 1994, leading to cooperation in security, trade, energy, and water, with trade rising from US$18 million to over US$300 million by 2024 and a 15-year energy deal signed in 2016. Nevertheless, challenges persist over Israel’s attempts to weaken Jordan’s authority at Al-Aqsa Mosque and continuing diplomatic tussles.

Dr. Das opined that Jordan initially saw Hamas as a tool to counterbalance Fatah, but the relationship soon worsened due to Hamas’ opposition to the Oslo Accords and Jordan’s Peace Treaty with Israel and use of violence to disrupt the peace process. After Hamas took Gaza in 2007, Jordan’s engagement with the group remained limited.

Jordan’s role in the Israel-Hamas war, reflects its delicate balancing act in the region. The country has consistently condemned violence and called for restraint. Dr. Das also mentioned the incident when Abdullah II, King of Jordan, was a vocal critic of Israel’s conduct and, at the same time, condemned the 7 October 2023 attack and kidnapping of Israelis. Jordan has undertaken diplomatic measures and humanitarian initiatives, providing shelter, medical aid, and essential supplies to those affected, often coordinating with international organisations.

Jordan’s key concern is the displacement of Palestinians, backed by US President Donald Trump’s offer to rebuild Gaza. The conflict has led to an increase in radicalisation within Jordanian society, boosting support for Hamas and armed resistance and political consolidation by the Islamic Action Front (IAF).

Dr. Das further noted that Jordan’s security cooperation with Israel is driven by its priority of state stability and the survival of the monarchy. Therefore, Israel’s efforts to degrade Hamas’ military capabilities align with Jordan’s strategic interests. Jordan’s security, trade, and energy cooperation with Israel has remained intact during the ongoing war. Jordan values its peace treaty with Israel and has resisted calls to cancel it, as this could weaken its stake in the Al-Aqsa Mosque, reduce leverage in the West Bank, limit its role in preventing displacement, and threaten US$1.5 billion in US aid.

Q/A Session

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General of MP-IDSA, shared that Jordan’s influence declined after the 1920s when the Al Saud family took control of the Hijaz, ending Hashemite authority over Mecca and Medina, and was further limited by the Sykes-Picot Agreement, though King Hussein Ben Ali’s sons briefly held wider regional influence. Today, Jordan functions mainly as a buffer state, balancing ties with the U.S., Britain, Israel, and the Palestinians, while its large Palestinian-origin population and memories of Black September continue to shape internal policies. He highlighted Jordan’s role in regional security, such as assisting in intercepting Iranian missiles aimed at Israel, and stated that Jordan cannot act independently. It could serve in a supportive capacity to stabilise the region rather than leading solutions to the Israeli-Palestinian conflict.

Ms. Saman Ayesha Kidwai, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA, asked whether Jordan’s dual approach of supporting Palestinian rights while cooperating with Israel is becoming unsustainable amid rising domestic anger. She also asked if Hamas is genuinely committed to a two-state solution or focused on integrating Palestinians elsewhere.

Dr. Das made a note of the comments and replied to the questions.

Report was prepared by Mr. Harsh Yadav, Intern, West Asia Centre.