During the first two decades of the twenty-first century, besides the structural factors namely geography, history, politics, international system and the world order, five conjunctural factors dominated Turkish foreign policy behaviour and conduct. These include the Strategic Depth (Stratejik Derinlik) doctrine with ‘zero-problem’ with neighbours embedded in it followed by the Blue Homeland (Mavi Vatan) doctrine focused on enhancing Türkiye’s maritime presence in its immediate neighbourhood and the periphery. Thirdly, and arguably the most important, is the personality of Recep Tayyip Erdogan who as a dominating figure in contemporary Turkish politics has shaped not only the political discourse but foreign policy praxis. Erdogan’s personalised style of interventions has undoubtedly had a profound impact on Ankara’s interactions and engagements with the wider world. Finally, pan-Islamism and neo-Ottomanism are two important drivers in Turkish foreign policy and were visible notably in the Middle East and North Africa region and came into prominence in the wake of the Arab Spring uprisings. In this context, it is pertinent to ask what are Turkish foreign policy ambitions and how do these impact India? Given that Ankara has expanded its presence, or at least is striving to expand it, in the geographically contiguous Southwest Asia region that connects India to the Middle East, the question how Indian foreign policy should view Türkiye becomes even more important. The bilateral challenges between India and Türkiye make it even more pertinent for Indian scholars and policymakers to take a deep and hard look at Türkiye’s foreign policy doctrines and praxis. This book is an attempt in that direction. It systematically analyses the structural and conjunctural factors in Turkish foreign policy and notes that Türkiye’s foreign policy is embedded in a glorified identification of the past, both Ottoman and Kemalist, and in its geographical location as a multi-regional actor. However, the foreign policy ambitions are limited by Türkiye’s economic performance and political sliding. From an Indian viewpoint, the book identifies Pakistan as a limiting factor so far as the bilateral relations are concerned and recommends that New Delhi should use economic leverage and diplomacy to de-hyphenate the Pakistan factor.
The timing of its engagements with Armenia and Cyprus is a clear indication that India is hyphenating its relations with Turkey. By simultaneously engaging with his regional adversaries, India is hoping to influence Erdogan’s attention and priorities.
What will define the future of Turkey-India relations in not Cyprus or Pakistan, but the stress on mutual strengthening of their economies and providing an environment for greater understanding of each other.
