United States of America (USA)

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  • US Military Departure from Manas Stirring a New Game in Central Asia

    The author recounts his memories of the US military base at Manas International Airport in Bishkek, which was the hub for onward movement of about 15,000 troops and 500 tons of cargo a month to and from Afghanistan. The folding of the US base has not only put an end to the US-Central Asia saga but in effect the US overseas military presence is now retracted to the line of its power limits in Europe.

    July 07, 2014

    American Strategy in Afghanistan: Dilemmas, Miscalculations and Outcomes

    The war on terror, often described as ‘the longest war’ or ‘the wrong war’, is approaching its pinnacle. In this context, 2014 has been the centre of gravity while formulating strategies, framing policies and executing actions to ensure an honourable exit for the international forces led by the United States from Afghanistan.

    May 2014

    Asian Strategic Review 2014: US Pivot and Asian Security

    Asian Strategic Review 2014: US Pivot and Asian Security
    • Publisher: Pentagon Press
      2014

    The “Pivot to Asia” strategy qualifies to be called Obama Doctrine: a part of Obama’s “grand strategy”. This policy may radically redefine not only the US engagement with Asia but also the Asian strategic dynamics. This book looks at various facets of the pivot strategy, to include US, Chinese, regional and country specific perspectives with an aim of providing greater clarity and understanding.

    • ISBN 978-81-8274-769-2,
    • Price: ₹. 995/-
    • E-copy available
    2014

    Interventionism and Human Security

    The conflict in Syria is inexorably turning into a quagmire as more entities get dragged into the sludge. From a hands-off policy to one of humanitarian support, the West has progressed to arming rebels, while Russia has shown that it is determined not to let down its ally by continuing arms shipments to the Assad regime.

    January 2014

    The US’ Surveillance Review Panel Report: An Assessment

    The 300-page report has 46 recommendations offering drastic solutions while addressing many of the issues in the wake of the Snowden revelations. The Administration has already rejected a key recommendation; that since both the NSA and Cyber Command have conflicting functions, the NSA should be placed under civilian control and should be split from the Cyber Command.

    January 09, 2014

    The Geopolitics of America's Energy Independence: Implications for China, India and the Global Energy Market

    The Geopolitics of America's Energy Independence: Implications for China, India and the Global Energy Market

    The US' claim that it will become energy independent shortly on the back of the revolution in its shale resources technology has been followed by Washington's announcement of its 'rebalancing to Asia' policy. This monograph looks at the sustainability of the shale revolution, and whether the US' claims are indeed justified and the geopolitical consequences and strategic implications thereof on the global energy scenario.

    2013

    US Rebalancing to the Asia-Pacific: Implications for West Asia

    White House has sought to assuage the West Asian states’ feelings that the ties with Asia-Pacific would not be at their expense. On the other hand, there are strong prescriptions from within the US calling for quietly downgrading involvement in the sorry mess of West Asia as the problems there can at best be managed, but never solved.

    December 11, 2013

    Urenco is up for sale, is India interested?

    If Chinese companies eventually end up bidding for Urenco, there is no reason why Indian companies should not do so. India can form a joint-venture with counterparts in Brazil, South Africa and, if needed, China (even Russia) using common interests envisioned through forums like the IBSA or BRICS to enter this race.

    November 13, 2013

    Jamil Zaid asked: Will the continued political turmoil in Middle East and North Africa affect the US rebalance policy to the Asia-Pacific region?

    Gulshan Dietl replies: Since late 2011, the Obama Administration has been making a series of pronouncements on a pivot to Asia-Pacific, which has now been moderated to a rebalance to Asia-Pacific. As the global power equations evolve, so do the strategic choices of the states. For example, the US policies were focussed on the Soviet Union during the Cold War. It is now China that is at the epicentre of the US worldview; and it is this worldview that advises and influences the US foreign policy.

    Ahmed Zahran asked: What is the latest position of the US, the EU, Russia and China on the Iranian nuclear issue, and what are the possible outcomes of the ongoing negotiation?

    S. Samuel C. Rajiv replies: The US, Russia, China, France, the United Kingdom (P5) and Germany (the P5+1) are currently giving push to the 'engagement' track with the latest round of talks which began on October 15, 2013 at Geneva. While existing unilateral and multi-lateral (UNSC and EU) sanctions are in place, no additional sanctions are as yet being contemplated as a part of the 'sanctions' track.

    The 'dual-track' policy of sanctions and engagement has till date not shown much progress in modulating Iranian behaviour. It is pertinent to note that in the past, as the nature and volume of sanctions increased, Iranian intransigence correspondingly increased. Iran for instance suspended its voluntary implementation of the IAEA Additional Protocol (AP) after its referral to the UNSC in February 2006.

    However, various reports as well as Iranian officials have acknowledged the vulnerable state of the Iranian economy and its currency as a result of trade and oil-related sanctions. President Hassan Rouhani's overwhelming victory defeating candidates like Saeed Jalili (who was the chief nuclear negotiator) has given rise to the strong perception that the Iranian public have rejected the confrontationist approach of the Mahmoud Ahmadinejad Government. Supreme Leader Khamenei has also supported the path of dialogue, crucially in a speech to the IRGC commanders in September 2013. With the Obama Administration showing its commitment to the dialogue process, the hopes for progress at the current round of negotiations are huge.

    Possible outcomes could range from Iran signing the IAEA AP, temporarily suspending its enrichment activities, the shipping out of excess quantities of enriched uranium (a possibility alluded to by the Iranian Parliament Speaker) in exchange for graduated sanctions relief, provision of spare parts for its civilian aircrafts, among others in a 'grand bargain'.

    These elements are in the realm of the 'possible' given the unique circumstances surrounding the current negotiations, including Rouhani 'the pragmatist' being in power, Khamenei's support for negotiations, weak state of the Iranian economy, and the positive vibes generated by the renewed interactions between the US and Iran topped by the first telephonic conversation between presidents of the two countries in more than three decades.

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