Dr S. Samuel C. Rajiv is Associate Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, New Delhi. Click here for detailed profile
Even as the uncertainty over the alleged use of chemical weapons use in Syria deepens, the cautious US response to the situation has been conditioned by the lack of viable military options as well as its Iraq war experience.
The Patriot deployments signify Turkey’s attempt to secure itself and its allies against touted missile threats from the two countries with which it shares borders to the east – Syria and Iran.
The US pursuit of missile defence in order to counter and/or hedge against Iran's ballistic missile capabilities coupled with concerns generated by its nuclear programme has had significant strategic consequences. Iran on its part has pursued these capabilities as part of its asymmetric strategy to overcome its strategic vulnerabilities flowing from US encirclement, short-comings in force levels vis-a-vis neighbours and resource constraints in building effective conventional forces.
Efforts undertaken to address concerns generated by the Iranian nuclear issue have primarily followed a dual-track approach made up of punitive non-proliferation and economic sanctions at the multi-lateral and unilateral levels and diplomatic-political engagement across the bilateral, tri-lateral and multi-lateral spectrum. These have, however, not been successful in ‘forcing’ cooperation from Iran on core issues of concern, including in such activities as the stopping of uranium enrichment activities.
With reports noting that the Israeli government had authorised the mobilisation of close to 75,000 reservists ahead of a possible ground invasion, international attention is currently focussed on preventing this possibility
Though the NAM Summit was an important occasion for Iran to showcase its diplomatic acceptability, its impact on the future contours of the Iranian nuclear imbroglio will likely be minimal.
On account of pertinent international, regional and domestic dynamics, the Iranian nuclear imbroglio is at uncertain crossroads. There are however reasons for optimism. This is because of Iran’s continuing engagement with the IAEA and P5+1 and strong opposition from major powers to a military solution. In the light of the above dynamics, the Paper points out dilemmas being encountered by India and ends by exploring possible policy options in the evolving situation.
The primary role of Israel’s current fleet of ‘Dolphins’ is likely to be limited to serve as instruments of ‘signalling’ strategic intent to potential enemies rather than as effective pre-emptive strike or competent second-strike platforms.
Attempts by India and the US to square the circle on the nature of India’s energy cooperation with Iran have hit high gear in the aftermath of Clinton’s visit.
The paper assesses that in the aftermath of 9/11, efforts to improve and sustain the potency of US nuclear arsenal are far more pertinent than efforts to reduce their salience.
Patriots in Turkey
The Patriot deployments signify Turkey’s attempt to secure itself and its allies against touted missile threats from the two countries with which it shares borders to the east – Syria and Iran.