The Joint Communique issued by the recent NATO summit, held on July 8-9 in Warsaw, appears to have sown the seeds of a renewed confrontation with Russia.
Regardless of the spin and gloss that Pakistan puts on the decision to re-open NATO supply lines to Afghanistan, it was in large measure the result of sustained US economic, political and diplomatic pressure.
Where does Pakistan figure in ‘Afghan good enough’ if Pakistan’s centrality in the Western approach is taken into account? Not working towards a ‘Pakistan good enough’ would simply mean that ‘Afghan good enough’ is not ‘good enough’.
Anit Mukherjee replies: The collapse of the Soviet Union led to the end of the bipolar rivalry between the Warsaw Pact and NATO, which had characterized world politics since the end of WWII. Besides the collapse of the Warsaw Pact, it resulted in freedom for many Eastern European countries from their communist parties and led to a wave of democratization there. Moreover it created a number of new countries in Eastern Europe and in Central Asia . It more or less ended the experiment with communism that began with the Bolshevik revolution. Finally, it led to changes in almost all regional settings in the world. For instance, the withdrawal of the Soviet Union from Afghanistan led to global inattention that ultimately led to the Taliban regime. This democratic triumph also led to global economic growth at unprecedented levels. Finally it also created instability, for instance in the Balkans and in parts of Asia, e.g. Nagorno-Karabakh.
The much awaited NATO Russian Summit meeting is taking place on November 19-20, 2010 in Lisbon. Will it signify a major thaw in East-West relations, or will existing differences thwart a major rapprochement between the United States, Europe and Russia which could herald a new era in international relations.
Vishal Chandra replies: The US and NATO are likely to remain engaged in Afghanistan for years to come. I do not foresee complete withdrawal of American forces anytime soon. Even if the Obama Administration sticks to the July 2011 time frame, the withdrawal of American troops will still be a long drawn affair. Similarly, most of the European countries may pull out bulk of their troops in the next 2-3 years, but that would be no affirmation of West ‘departing’ from the region. They are likely to maintain minimal number of troops inside Afghanistan in support of the Afghan National Security Forces (ANSF) and the Afghan government. The pace of withdrawal will also depend on the ground situation in Afghanistan; threat perceptions among the Western countries; and the preparedness of the ANSF. Transfer of security responsibilities to the ANSF itself will take at least 4-5 years or even more. Both the US and NATO will have to fund and provide mentors and trainers for the ANSF for years to come.
As for the Indian presence, much will depend on the security situation in Afghanistan, the strength of the Afghan government, and how Washington and Islamabad reconcile to each other’s interests. India is likely to continue with its reconstruction assistance to the Afghan people and government to the extent possible. As a neighbouring country, India is expected to take a long-term view of the Afghan situation. The current policy may not be sustainable if the West fails to manage and stabilize the Afghan situation. India response will thus depend on the situation as it evolves on either sides of the Durand Line. In all circumstances, Indian response and policy towards Afghanistan must factor in the views and perceptions of various sections of the Afghan people. India has to be patient and cautious in its response. Any misadventure will prove counter-productive and further work to the advantage of forces inimical to the Indian interests.
India must stay engaged, keep a low profile, earn the goodwill of the Afghan people through its multifaceted assistance programme, and stay away from any costly misadventure in the security sector.
This paper seeks to understand the nature of cooperation between the UN and other IGOs in ongoing conflicts. It will examine the security framework in which these multilateral arrangements were created, the gaps they were trying to cover, and the problems and areas of opportunities.
Are Russia and NATO inching towards a conflict?
The Joint Communique issued by the recent NATO summit, held on July 8-9 in Warsaw, appears to have sown the seeds of a renewed confrontation with Russia.