Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses
मनोहर पर्रिकर रक्षा अध्ययन एवं विश्लेषण संस्थान

Journal of Defence Studies

The Snow Lion and the Dragon: China, Tibet, and the Dalai Lama, by Melvyn C. Goldstein

 The political status of Tibet in relation to China has been a contentious issue. It has invoked the question of the right of a people to self-determination. Melvyn C. Goldstein’s book titled The Snow Lion and the Dragon: China, Tibet, and the Dalai Lama presents an expounded historical account of the cultural as well as political survival of Tibet from a Western, primarily American, lens. The book’s essential objective is to define the boundaries of what he refers to as the ‘Tibet Question’ and analyse Chinese Tibetan policies in the light of the relationship shared with the US. The ‘Tibet Question’, a nationalist issue at its core, here symbolises the struggle to control territory and the representations of history and current events. Read More

Inside the Terrifying World of Jaish-e-Mohammed, by Abhinav Pandya

 In the aftermath of the terror attack in Pahalgam, Abhinav Pandya’s book Inside the Terrifying World of Jaish-e-Mohammed, assumes significant relevance as it offers a comprehensive analysis of the operational structure of Jaish-e-Mohammed (JeM) and underscores the grave national security challenges being faced by Indian security forces and policymakers over the last few decades. The book aims to give critical insights into the inception, expansion and operations of JeM. Read More

Mao’s Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy, by Toshi Yoshihara, Georgetown University Press, 2022, pp. 158

 Mao’s Army Goes to Sea: The Island Campaigns and the Founding of China’s Navy delves into Mao’s initial efforts to build a naval force, tracing the development of the People’s Liberation Army Navy (PLAN) between 1949 and 1950. It highlights how a group of individuals with no maritime experience managed to create an operational navy in just 18 months. Despite their lack of expertise, this nascent force undertook complex amphibious assaults, achieving significant victories in some cases while facing crushing defeats in others. Yoshihara, a distinguished scholar of the PLAN and Senior Fellow at the Center for Strategic and Budgetary Assessments offers fresh perspectives through his extensive use of Chinese sources. Read More

The AUKUS Submarine Roadmap: A Bridge Too Far?

 The year 2025 has proven to be a particularly challenging period for the AUKUS trilateral security pact between Australia, the United Kingdom (UK) and the United States (US). The developments and discourses since the beginning of the year indicate the onset of a more difficult phase for the AUKUS, marked by heightened political uncertainty and growing geopolitical complexity. Following three years of study and tangible progress made under the agreement, the re-election of Donald Trump to the White House for a second term has raised doubts among the observers regarding the US’ continued commitment to the AUKUS. Read More

Evolving Competitive Militant Landscape of Pakistan and its Implications

 The Pakistani policymakers and academia did not envisage an escalation of attacks in Pakistan after the ascendancy of the Afghan Taliban in August 2021.1 In fact, many commentators and analysts in Pakistan viewed the rise of the Taliban after the Doha greement as a harbinger of a new era in South Asia. However, despite the pledges made by the Taliban and the interim government in Afghanistan, Pakistan has been getting mired in violence. For a fourth consecutive year, Pakistan has seen a surge in violence after the Taliban’s takeover of Kabul. According to ‘Pakistan Security Report 2024’, a total of 521 terrorist attacks took place in Pakistan in 2024—including nine suicide bombings—which killed 852 people and injured 1,124, amounting to a 70 per cent increase in the number of attacks from the previous year. Read More

Crossing Lines: Drugs, Insurgency and Disorder in the Indo-Myanmar Borderlands

 The intensification of drug trafficking across the Indo-Myanmar border presents a significant challenge to both political and socio-economic stability in the region. This illicit trade not only exacerbates insurgent activities in Northeast India but also poses a serious threat to the country’s internal security. The porous and inadequately monitored border facilitates the movement of narcotics, creating a permissive environment for transnational criminal networks.1 These vulnerabilities have been further compounded by Myanmar’s enduring political instability following the 2021 military coup, elevating the issue to a matter of national security.2 Ethnic Armed Organizations (EAOs) of Myanmar operating along the border have increasingly engaged in drug trafficking as a means of financing their campaigns against the junta regime. Read More

The Tribal Connect to Maoist Insurgency in India: The Historical Context and Alleviation Measures by the Government

 Left Wing Extremism (LWE) or Maoism in India has been an ongoing internal security challenge since the late 1960s. The current phase of this insurgency has its ground zero in the forests of Dandakaranya (DK) in general and in the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh in particular. The region forms a part of the resource-rich tribal belt in central-eastern India. Tribals constitute the majority of rank and file of Maoists. The driving force for local tribals to fall prey to Maoism is the sense of deep-rooted alienation that these people suffer from. The article delves into the historical roots of tribal alienation that originated a couple of centuries ago during the colonial era and continues in present times under different manifestations. It is pertinent to possess a thorough background knowledge of tribal alienation so as to be able to evolve policies and programmes towards a long-term resolution of Maoist challenge, which is certainly beyond a security-centric approach. In addition, the article also analyses statutes and government initiatives to include their implementation, challenges and impact towards alleviating tribal alienation. The region of study is pan-India in general and the Bastar division of Chhattisgarh in particular. Read More

The Political Economy of South Korea’s Arms Trade with India: Challenges and Prospects

 South Korea’s rapid rise as a manufacturing powerhouse and a leading export-oriented economy was made possible due to the active role of the ‘developmental state’ in the country. Despite adopting several neoliberal policies after the devastating Asian financial crisis of 1997, the South Korean state did not fully abandon its role in the country’s economic development. In recent years, selling of military hardware has emerged as one of the ‘new engines of economic growth’ for this export-oriented nation. Furthermore, South Korea’s economic and strategic relations with India have developed significantly, particularly after the end of the Cold War. The arms trade between the two countries has also grown notably. While India’s developing economic and strategic relations with South Korea are well-documented, there is a lack of literature on New Delhi’s increasing arms trade with Seoul. This article explains the challenges and prospects of South Korea’s trade of weapons with India. Read More

The Budgetary Conundrum of the Indian Armed Forces: A Military Perspective

 India’s defence budget is a subject of intense scrutiny and debate, drawing the attention of a diverse range of stakeholders, including economists, defence experts and policymakers. The defence budget must cater for the long-term requirements of defence forces, their equipping philosophy, modernisation requirements and the aspirations of the rank and file of the organisation. This article aims to provide a comprehensive analysis of the key aspects of defence budgeting, allocation and expenditure, with a particular focus on the perspectives of the defence establishments as the end-users of the budget. The article is broadly divided into two parts. The first part examines the quantitative aspects of the defence budget, delving into the composition of the overall allocation, the relative shares of the three armed forces, and the distribution between revenue and capital expenditures. The analysis reveals that while the nominal defence budget has been increasing over the years, the share of defence spending in the central government’s total expenditure has been declining, raising concerns about the adequacy of resources to meet the long-term requirements of the defence forces. The second part of the article undertakes a qualitative analysis of the defence budgeting process, exploring the challenges and constraints faced by the defence establishments. These include the need to balance manpower costs with equipment procurement and modernisation, the impact of rising inflation on the purchasing power of the defence budget, and the implications of the revenue–capital expenditure mix on the overall readiness and combat effectiveness of the armed forces. Read More

The Evolution and Future of Mobile Artillery: Technological Advances, History and Future of Artillery Warfare

 This article explores the evolution of mobile artillery, from oxen-drawn cannons and camel-mounted swivel guns to today’s self-propelled, precision-guided systems. It highlights how battlefield mobility, rapid fire-and-move tactics, and integration with digital command networks have made mobile artillery indispensable in modern warfare. Drawing lessons from recent conflicts like the Russia–Ukraine war and the Azerbaijan–Armenia clashes, this article analyses how mobile artillery—augmented by unmanned aerial vehicles (UAVs), smart munitions and autonomous logistics—has adapted to fast-paced, multi-domain operations. The study underscores mobile artillery’s unique role as a survivable, flexible and cost-effective firepower solution amid evolving threats and terrain-driven challenges. Read More

Clamour for Going Nuclear Gains Traction in South Korea

 The nuclear issue has been simmering in South Korea for quite some time. During Park Chung-hee’s regime, there was a serious move to revisit the country’s nuclear option as a means of deterrence, but the US succeeded in dissuading the regime from pursuing it. However, as the North Korean threat escalated, the nuclear issue as a deterrence strategy regained focus. This coincided with the diminishing of trust on US nuclear deterrence or perception thereof. However, a policy reversal on the nuclear issue in South Korea was never easy as domestic advocates and opponents were never able to reach a consensus. Several imponderables surfaced and were debated. These include the fear of international sanctions, repercussions from the withdrawal of the Non-Proliferation Treaty (NPT), domino effect, negative impact on the South Korean economy and lack of political consensus, which came in the way of a serious rethink to pursue a nuclear path. The onus lies on the US to provide reassurance, through its extended nuclear deterrence strategy, to dissuade South Korea from entertaining nuclear thought in the future. Read More

Editorial

 I am pleased to present to the readers the fourth issue of 2025, which brings together five insightful articles, three commentaries and three book reviews. I would also like to take this opportunity to inform our readers about a special issue planned for 2026. The title of the special issue is “The Year of Reforms: Reshaping India’s Defence for the Decade Ahead”; contributions are invited for the same. Read More

The Mistaken History of the Korean War: What We Got Wrong Then and Now by Paul M. Edwards

 For Koreans, the Korean War was undoubtedly a watershed moment, which cemented the bifurcation of Korean Peninsula that continues more than seventy years after the fact. It is impossible to segregate the Korean War from the history of United States. US had, after all, provided for around 5.7 million personnel in the UN initiative against North Korean ingression into South Korea. Read More

The Arctic Frontier: Geopolitical Chessboard of Major Powers?

 The Arctic region, once considered a distant and inhospitable corner of the world, is rapidly emerging as a focal point in global geopolitics. Harvard International Review (HIR) argues that “nations have begun to engage in a modern gold rush over the region’s unclaimed territory, natural resources and strategic position”.1 This transformation is driven by a confluence of factors: the region’s substantial mineral wealth,2 the strategic importance of newly accessible maritime shipping lanes,3 the unique opportunities for scientific discovery,4 and the broader implications for global politics.5 As the Arctic ice cover diminishes at an unprecedented rate due to climate change, the region’s significance is magnified, drawing the attention of major global powers and reshaping international relations. Its vast mineral resources are at the heart of the Arctic’s growing importance. Estimates suggest that the region harbours a significant portion of the world’s untapped reserves of oil and natural gas, with projections indicating that the Arctic could contain about 13 per cent (90 billion barrels) of the world’s undiscovered oil and 30 per cent of its undiscovered natural gas (USGC).6 These figures highlight the Arctic as a critical energy security and economic opportunity area, particularly as traditional reserves in more accessible regions become depleted. Read More

Outer Space as a Global Commons: Evolving Governance and the Challenges of the 21st Century

 Space has long been considered a domain beyond territorial claims, governed by international treaties that emphasised cooperation and peaceful exploration. However, in the face of rapid technological advances, the increasing involvement of private entities in space, and the rise of new space powers, the concept of space as a global commons is being fundamentally redefined. While the 1967 Outer Space Treaty (OST) laid the foundational principles for the peaceful use of outer space, it has become increasingly inadequate in addressing the complex dynamics of 21st-century space exploration. This commentary explores the challenges and opportunities in rethinking the governance structures for outer space, emphasising the need for updated international legal frameworks to safeguard space as a domain for the benefit of humanity. Read More

A NATO Sans USA

 The newly elected American President’s constant threat on pulling America out of NATO labelling them as potential liabilities has not gone well with its European partners. His far from charitable description that he would cease defending allies that spend less than the stipulated percentage on defence has got the nations thinking on an alternate arrangement if the USA chooses to abandon the alliance. The Europeans should quit underestimating themselves and brace up for joint efforts to ward off American bullying. The Europeans are undoubtedly technological powerhouses and all have standing armies which cross-exercise at regular intervals and keep themselves battle-ready. It is necessary for NATO to step out on its own and create its own individuality sans the USA. Read More

Enhancing Ballistic Missile Defence: Comparing AI-Integrated Systems with Traditional Approaches

 The Ballistic Missile Defence (BMD) systems play a significant role in national security, and are designed to detect, track and intercept incoming missiles. Beginning in the 1950s, they have undergone rapid evolution in consonance with the advancement in technology. Artificial Intelligence (AI), in particular, has proven to be a transformative force in bolstering the capabilities of BMD systems. Against this backdrop, this article analyses the efficiency and effectiveness of AI-integrated missile defence systems compared to traditional non-AI systems under different operational conditions and scenarios. Leveraging machine learning algorithms, neural networks and real-time data processing, AI increases detection accuracy, reduces false positives and improves interception success rates. The article relies on quantitative analysis based on t-tests, statistical performance analysis and simulations under diverse conditions. The findings indicate that AI-integrated systems significantly outperform traditional systems in detection latency, false positive rates and interception success. Furthermore, the article analyses the potentially vulnerable sites, challenges and ethical considerations related to AI integration in missile defence, stressing the need for human oversight in the decision-making process. This research underscores the strategic advantages and limitations of AI-enhancing defence capabilities against advanced missile threats. Read More

Safeguarding National Interests: Evaluating the Risks of Defence – Civilian Airport Proximity

 This article examines the risks posed by the proximity of military facilities to civilian airports, particularly in the context of the Indian Air Force (IAF) as well as Indian Naval Air Station sites adjacent to commercial hubs. It highlights concerns regarding unauthorised access to sensitive information, infrastructure and potential terrorist threats. The article advocates for relocating civil installations away from military airports to bolster national security. Given the rapid expansion of both civilian and military aviation, the current joint-use model will become increasingly strained, leading to operational inefficiencies and heightened security risks. Implementing advanced monitoring, enhanced cybersecurity protocols, and stronger coordination between civilian and military authorities is essential in the short-term. However, relying solely on security enhancements within existing limitations offers only a partial solution, as the continued growth of air traffic will exacerbate congestion and security concerns. A phased transition towards dedicated civilian and military airport infrastructure remains the most viable long-term approach to safeguarding national security while ensuring sustainable aviation growth. This article underscores the importance of balancing immediate security needs with long-term infrastructure planning to address the evolving challenges of the aviation sector. There is a need for stringent security measures, including enhanced monitoring and cybersecurity protocols, and cooperation between civilian and military authorities. This article also addresses technological vulnerabilities such as electronic eavesdropping and GPS spoofing, thereby urging the development of strategies to mitigate these risks. Read More

India’s Quest for Self-Reliance in Defence Sector: Reality Check, Challenges and Way Ahead

 Given the prevalence of numerous security challenges, India’s high dependence on other countries for its defence requirements stands out as a serious vulnerability in the national security calculus. In 2024, India was the world’s second largest importer of arms, just behind Ukraine, with an 8.3 per cent share of global arms import between 2020 and 2024. This situation can be largely attributed to the absence of a long-term national security strategy due to lack of political direction marked by narrow perspective, absence of indigenous research and pursuit of technology unaligned with military objectives. While India did make attempts to achieve self-reliance, the outcome was not encouraging due to the domination of the public sector entities coupled with bureaucratic gridlocks. To revitalise India’s armament industry, the present government, under ‘Atmanirbharta/Make in India’ programme has initiated slew of defence reforms which include rationalisation of the acquisition and procurement procedures, restructuring of the key bodies and the establishment of Defence Industrial Corridors (DICs). While the Indian defence industry has made significant progress, including increase in defence exports, it still has a long way to traverse. The indigenisation achieved so far pertains to low-technology items, while many initiatives remain non-starters. To overcome these challenges, India requires a National Security Strategy, robust ecosystem to scale up the overall industrial capacity, deregulation and initiation of a second round of defence reforms. Read More

Manned Fighter and Unmanned Systems: Future is Collaborative

 The application of unmanned systems during recent conflicts has stimulated an alternative thought in military capability. While these systems have accrued reasonable tactical and operational successes, their ability to do so independently is a matter of debate. The operational imperatives indicate a necessity to invest in these capabilities, but in collaboration with the manned fighters. Unmanned systems exhibit some fundamental flaws when evaluated through the prism of ‘Nature’, and ‘Morals and Ethics’ of War. Since war fundamentally is a means of human conflict resolution, a human element would have to remain as the chief protagonist at all the levels of war. Similarly, in the Indian context that is characterised as No War No Peace (NWNP), complete military solutions to various security scenarios are possible only through the complementary application of manned and unmanned aircraft. At the operational level, when assessed through the seminal concepts of OODA (Observe, Orient, Decide and Act) loop as well as combat effectiveness, risk, and cost, the capabilities of unmanned systems can be maximised through their application in conjunction with manned fighters. Globally, to harness this potential, there is an impetus on 6th generation fighter aircraft, which are inherently MUM-T capable. These programmes foster human–machine teaming in which humans would be responsible for the higher cognitive functions [combat strategy design, command and control (C2), etc.], while less demanding cognitive functions (tactical manoeuvres, observation, etc.) would be left to UAVs/ UCAVs. At the current pace, in this field, India will remain at least one generation behind all major powers, including China. Therefore, to curtail this trend, and to boost indigenous ecosystem and make it export-worthy, in short-term (till 2030), for stabilisation of LCA and realisation of AMCA and CATS, primary focus should be on manned fighters with a proportional focus on unmanned systems as per their identified complementary roles (ISR, limited strike, high-risk, etc.). In the long-term (beyond 2030), the focus should shift to a collaborative approach to achieve the ‘Collaborative Peak’ of manned–unmanned teaming by 2047 (Amrit Kaal). Read More
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