Deepika Saraswat

The Saudi-Pakistan Strategic Mutual Defence Agreement (SMDA), signed on September 17,2025, is a dramatic development amidst a rapidly changing geopolitical landscape in West and South Asia. Pakistan’s strategic elite has once again shown itself adept at geopolitical rent-seeking by leveraging the country’s nuclear status, religious identity, and geographical proximity to the Arab World to cultivate partnerships that can bail out its crisis-ridden economy. However, Pakistan’s primary objective is to counter India’s new assertive deterrence posture in ‘Operation Sindoor’, which established new rules of engagement, challenging Pakistan’s policy of using terrorist groups to secure its geopolitical goals under its nuclear umbrella. Saudi Arabia, for its part, seeks to shore up flailing deterrence against Iran and Israel. By asserting an outsized security role in the Gulf region, Pakistan is also holding out the promise of burden-sharing to the United States, increasingly viewed as an unreliable security guarantor despite its longstanding military preponderance in the region.

• Deepika Saraswat |
• September-October 2025 |
• Strategic Analysis

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘Israel seeks to harvest Iran’s domestic unrest’ was published in Hindustan Times on 02 January 2026. Israel seeks to realise its long-term objective of structurally dismantling Iran’s military capabilities through military operations, wrote Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘Will Iran’s revolutionary project survive its perfect storm?’ was published in Frontline on 21 January 2026. With legitimacy waning, the middle class impoverished, and geopolitical pressure mounting, Iran’s establishment must choose between dramatic change and greater securisation. Neither path offers stability said Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘Looking beyond regime change in Tehran was published in Hindustan Times on 13 February 2026. Iran places national independence and resistance to the US at the core of its self-image, wrote Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘War on Iran: The Price of Syrianisation’ was published in Open Magazine on 6 March 2026. The threat of territorial dismemberment by foreign powers has the effect of uniting the opposition and the Islamic regime, wrote Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘Will the Islamic Regime Survive in Iran? Was published in India's World Magazine on 6 April 2026. Washington and Tel Aviv believed that eliminating Ayatollah Khamenei would trigger elite fragmentation and mass revolt in Iran. But the opposite seems to be unfolding: a wounded regime closing ranks and preparing for a long war, said Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar IDSA, Dr Deepika Saraswat’s article ‘The changing calculus of the conflict in West Asia’ was published in Hindustan Times on 3 April 2026. The stakes for Iran involve not just the regime’s survival or territorial integrity, but also setting a new strategic equation, said Dr Saraswat. Read Complete Article [+] Disclaimer: The views expressed by the author are personal and do not in any way reflect the views of MP-IDSA or the Government of India.

Iran is fighting a ‘war of balance’, using controlled horizontal escalation as a tool to impose sufficient costs on the US and its regional partners.

• Deepika Saraswat |
• March 23, 2026 |
• IDSA Comments

Iran is fighting a ‘war of balance’, using controlled horizontal escalation as a tool to impose sufficient costs on the US and its regional partners.

• Deepika Saraswat |
• March 23, 2026 |
• West Asia War Analyses

Deteriorating ties between Pakistan and the Taliban are shaping an emerging regional split vis-à-vis Afghanistan.

• Deepika Saraswat |
• January 01, 2026 |
• Issue Brief