Events

Mr. Abhishek Verma, Research Analyst at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Khalistan Movement Overseas: A Case Study of Canada” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 1 April, 2024. The session was chaired by Mr. Shantanu Sinha, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA, Gp. Capt. (Dr) Ajey Lele (Retd.), Deputy Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of the Institute were in attendance.

Executive Summary

India’s relationship with Canada has been impacted by the recent surge in pro-Khalistan-related activities in Canada. The Government of India needs to follow a dual approach, keeping diplomatic engagement intact while putting pressure on the Canadian Government to address India’s security concerns.

Detailed Report

Mr. Shantanu Sinha began the meeting by mentioning the surge in pro-Khalistan activities in recent years. He further alluded to the recent developments in North America that have impacted India’s relations with the United States and Canada. Subsequently, he invited the Speaker to make his presentation.

Mr. Abhishek Verma began his presentation by noting India’s response to recent allegations made by Canada, which have been widely covered in the media and which led to diplomatic tension between the two sides. Subsequently, he classified pro-Khalistan and anti-India activities into three categories- protests, referendums and vandalism. Further, he explored the demographic dimension of the Sikh diaspora in Canada and traced the community’s migration from India. The migration of the Sikh community has taken place in four distinct phases.

The first phase started in 1897 when Sikhs in the British Indian Army migrated to Canada for the coronation ceremony of Queen Victoria. The migration of Sikh soldiers (especially those stationed overseas) became more prominent after the end of First World-War. This phase of migration was driven by aspirations for a better quality of life in Canada, in addition to the adverse fiscal and economic conditions prevailing in India.

The second phase of Sikh migration began during the 1950s and 1960s. In this phase, educated and trained professionals started migrating to western countries in pursuit of employment opportunities. Subsequently, the third phase commenced in the 1970s as a result of the agrarian transition brought about by the Green Revolution. The Green Revolution led to an increase in the number of large landowners, alongside a steep decline in the small and medium landholders. The semi-skilled, unemployed and educated youth from the distressed farming community started migrating overseas in search of opportunities. The fourth and the largest phase of migration took place during the phase of Punjab militancy. During this phase, Sikhs charged with terrorism, predominantly the youths, started migrating to Canada.  

Subsequently, Mr. Verma traced the genesis of the Khalistan movement overseas to religious mobilization in the 1950s. At the time, Sikh industrial workers in the United Kingdom started facing restrictions to profess their religion and to display their religious identity. To put forth their grievances, the Sikh community started organising themselves under Sikh Home Rule Movement led by Sardar Charan Singh Panchi. Following this, Mr. Verma elaborated on the evolution of Khalistan movement overseas from 1970s to late 1980s, including the bombing of Air India Flight 182 in 1985 that killed 329 passengers on board. With the end of militancy in Punjab in the mid-1990s, support for the Khalistan project also dwindled among the Sikh community overseas. Following the attacks on 11 September, 2001 in the United States and subsequent War on Terror, the United States, Canada and the United Kingdom banned terrorist groups like Babbar Khalsa International and International Sikh Youth Federation.

In the light of a major crackdown on their functioning, the pro-Khalistan elements in Western countries shifted their strategies and continued their secessionist activities through the politics of grievances and human rights. One of the prominent organisations that emerged as an international advocacy and human rights group was ‘Sikhs for Justice’. Since its inception, "Sikhs for Justice" has been engaged in frivolous anti-India activities, including filing cases against Indian leaders and celebrities in US courts as well as issuing security threats related to flight travel.

Further, Mr. Verma explained the Canadian Government’s approach towards pro-Khalistan and anti-India activities in Canada. At the outset, he asserted that Canada's approach toward pro-Khalistan activities was largely influenced by three overarching factors: Cold War politics, political freedom of expression, and vote bank politics. During the Cold War, successive Canadian Governments, irrespective of parties, provided least priority to India’s sensitivities. While tolerating anti-India activities on Canadian soil, they adopted a lenient approach towards pro-Khalistan elements. However, the political dynamics changed since the end of Cold War. Although India’s relationship with the west improved, in general, the Canadian Government maintained that the right to freedom of expression was important and advocating Khalistan's homeland in Punjab was not illegal. By providing a synoptic overview of the current political dynamics in Canada, Mr. Verma concluded that vote bank politics largely influences the current Justin Trudeau Government’s attitude towards the Khalistani movement.

The Government of India has responded proactively to such anti-India activities. In addition to consistently and explicitly taking up the issue of Khalistan with the Canadian Government, successive Indian Governments have also pursued extradition of Khalistani and anti-India elements. However, extradition of Khalistani terrorists has remained negligible even after the signing of an extradition treaty in 1987. Domestically, the Government of India has taken measures such as banning pro-Khalistani websites and social media platforms. Furthermore, amendments to the Unlawful Activities (Prevention) Act of 1967 have been implemented to designate individuals as terrorists and to streamline the process of investigation and asset seizure.

Questions and Comments

While appreciating the Speaker’s presentation, Mr Sinha invited the Director General and Deputy Director General to make their comments.

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, DG, MP-IDSA, complimented Mr. Verma for making an informative presentation while emphasising the fact that it is not unusual for foreign communities to influence domestic policies. Further, he made observations concerning the adverse implications of migration during the Punjab militancy phase, as well as the non-secular tradition of western countries.

Additionally, scholars raised pertinent points concerning the ineffectiveness of the Extradition Treaty of 1987, the nexus between Pakistan and Canada, and the role of the Inter-Services Intelligence (ISI) in the Khalistan movement. Inquiries regarding recent events in Canada and the United States were also made.

During the Session, both the Speaker and Moderator addressed the questions raised by the scholars. Mr. Sinha provided insights into the legal and investigation-related complexities inherent in the extradition process. He underscored that the success of an extradition treaty hinges not only on legal intricacies but also on bilateral relations between the involved countries and political will. Regarding the role of the ISI, Mr. Sinha mentioned that the territorial boundaries of the fictitious state of “Khalistan” do not include Pakistani territories which have Sikh history, for example, Nankana Sahib, the birthplace of the first Sikh Guru, Guru Nanak Dev. This absence within the purported territorial extent of "Khalistan" was highlighted by Mr. Sinha as indicative of the ISI's involvement.

Report prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

An MP-IDSA Fellow Seminar presentation by Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow, titled ‘A Study of the Political Economic Framework of ASEAN Media and India’s Media Representation’ was held on 15 March 2024. It was chaired by Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defense Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). The External Discussants were Mr. Shashi Shekhar Vempati, former CEO of Prasar Bharati, and Professor Reena Marwah, Jesus and Mary College, Delhi University, and the Internal Discussants were Dr. Adil Rasheed, Research Fellow and Coordinator, Counter Terrorism Centre, and Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA. 

Executive Summary

The presentation covered the major five countries of the ASEAN bloc and how their media outlets played a significant role in building perceptions across borders within a given political-economic framework. It also evaluated the prevalence of negative news narratives about India sourced from international agencies, potentially influencing decision-making processes and public opinion. The presentation underscored the indispensable role of media in shaping cross-border perceptions and advocated nuanced analysis to comprehend India's representation in Southeast Asia and its ramifications for regional geopolitics and economics. 

Detailed Report

The Chairperson, Amb. Sujan Chinoy, introduced the Speaker and his topic of study regarding the political-economic framework of ASEAN media and India’s media representation. He emphasised that he considered the topic esoteric, but he expressed confidence that the eminent External and Internal Discussants would deconstruct the topic and requested Mr. Om Prakash Das to present his paper.

The Speaker, Mr. O.P. Das, introduced his topic in two parts, which come together as the conceptual framework of the political-economics of media for the five biggest economies of ASEAN nations. The Speaker discussed India and Southeast Asia’s warm historical relations, various issues about rule-based order, China's growing presence as an expansionist power in the ASEAN region, and how India has come up with the ‘Act East Policy’ and ‘Neighbourhood First’ Policy to deal with various issues concerning ASEAN nations.

The Speaker emphasised that the central premise of his research paper lies in understanding the origin and transformation of information into news and the role of information structure in shaping cross-border media representation. The presentation predominantly dealt with the five big economies of the ASEAN bloc, with five publications from five ASEAN countries: Indonesia, Thailand, Malaysia, the Philippines, and Singapore. Before he delved into the core of the presentation, the Speaker spoke about internal sources, external sources, and other variables like sentiments, whether the news is positive, apprehensive, negative, or neutral. Then the Speaker discussed in brief, the structure and political economy of media in Indonesia and Malaysia, where media ownership is concentrated among a limited number of conglomerates. An important consideration lies in the absence of anti-monopoly laws for regulating media ownership in Malaysia. The Speaker explained how the government has control over the licensing system to ensure pro-government policies, and the political sphere has consistently emphasised the necessity of media to operate within the framework of national development, asserting the need to guide the media in fulfilling its social responsibilities.

This was followed by a discussion on the media in Thailand. In Thailand, print media is essentially run by private players, but broadcast media is essentially dominated by the State. The Speaker emphasised how the constitution played a significant role in the transformation of Thai media from a government-oriented entity to a market-oriented private enterprise over a period of time.  This transition has realised a shift in media ownership patterns and the dynamic interplay between media owners and political structure.

The Speaker further spoke about the political-economic framework of media in Singapore, which operates within a constrained constitutional structure with the political class favouring a guided press that aligns with the government’s view. The Speaker went on to discuss the media in the Philippines, which underwent a political transformation post-1987, coming up with an ecosystem affording considerable leverage to the influential entities for fostering economic growth within the private sector. With time, political and economic ecosystems constructed a media landscape that had a good relationship between media owners and political elites. He also explained how the political structure in the Philippines has transformed into a democratic one.

The Speaker the discussed the most covered topics in Indonesia’s online version of the leading newspaper, which entailed geopolitics in India, India’s external affairs, defense news, and bilateral relations between India and Indonesia. The Speaker emphasised how international news agencies had given more than 74% of the news. He mentioned a sentiment analysis, which was positive for the Jakarta Post and international news agencies.

Mr. Das further discussed Malaysia’s most covered news topics, which entail India’s economy, geopolitics, and global economy. The Speaker emphasised how more than 67% of news is from different news agencies. 40.5% of the news is positive, and most of the positive news is covered by international news agencies.

The Speaker discussed Thailand's most covered news, which entailed geopolitics, India’s economy, and bilateral relations, and also mentioned that more than 73% of news is covered by international news agencies. He also emphasised how negative news is dominating Thailand’s newspaper (Bangkok Post).

The Speaker also discussed Singapore's most covered news, which entails geopolitics, India’s economy, domestic politics, and governance. He mentioned that in terms of sourcing, 74.4% of news is covered by international news agencies in Singapore’s ‘The Straits Times’. He also mentioned how negative sentiments are dominating in Singapore as well. He also brought up that the most positive news is being covered by international news agencies.

This was followed by a focus on the Philippines most-covered news, which entailed bilateral relations and geopolitics. He also emphasised how negative sentiment is dominating and that most of the positive news is covered by internal sources. The Speaker discussed that Malaysia carries most of the news from India; and the Philippines carries the least. Data suggest that these organizations have been disseminating news narratives that are largely sourced from international news agencies, which also means the perspectives and biases inherent in these international narratives have been propagated to the local audience without significant contextualization. The Speaker emphasised how the flow of information poses a significant challenge given its role in the decision-making process, particularly in the realm of global news dissemination. The Speaker emphasised the area to keep an eye on: the influence of news narratives on policymaking. The Speaker concluded the presentation with sentiment analysis, where he also emphasised the risk of overreliance on external news sources for coverage of Indian affairs in Southeast Asian media, highlighting potential consequences for information diversity, audience comprehension, and bilateral relations. The lack of indigenous reporting capabilities results in superficial and biased coverage based on external viewpoints, potentially impacting public discourse and relationships between countries.

The Chairperson, Amb. Chinoy started the discussion with a query and then opened the floor to External Discussants by introducing them to the audience. He mentioned Mr. Vempati’s immense experience in technology, media, and as CEO of Prasar Bharti, and Professor Marwah’s expertise in this area.

Mr. Shashi Shekhar Vempati

Mr. Vempati appreciated the Speaker for his presentation, made comments regarding the sample size being small, and appreciated the choice of subject. Mr. Vempati had a query regarding the analysis part and whether the news headlines are from editorials or other sections that are not that relevant. He also mentioned how English newspapers have a significant bias while reporting the news. He mentioned further the linkage of India’s representation with influencing policymaking, which is unclear.

Amb. Chinoy appreciated Mr. Vempati’s feedback and comments on the presentation and invited Professor Reena Marwah to make her comments.

Professor Reena Marwah

Prof. Marwah congratulated the Speaker for undertaking a detailed study that provides the reader with immense depth of understanding considering India’s engagement with Southeast Asia. She emphasised reconsidering the focus area and how the problem statement is well defined, but in the meantime, there is an ambiguity concerning how media content originating from India reaches the populace of these countries and how media narratives portray India’s relations with the region. She discussed how ASEAN as an entity is not distinguished from Southeast Asian countries in terms of the linguistic and cultural diversity of these countries. She also emphasised how the diaspora in the ASEAN bloc was not taken into consideration as part of the study. She explained that more attention needs to be paid to the context in which the study was undertaken and to the geopolitical happenings in the last six months. She had a query regarding the source of the news: whether colonized nations had a lineage towards news sources from their colonizers. She emphasised how a greater comparative perspective is needed and that much more focus on sentimental analysis is needed as sentimental analysis is subjective. She discussed how more focus on positive news is needed.

Amb. Chinoy thanked Prof. Marwah for her valuable inputs and emphasised how a similar kind of study is needed for other regions as well. Then he opened the floor for the Internal Discussants to make their comments.

Dr. Adil Rasheed

Dr. Adil Rashid began the discussion by appreciating the Speaker for selecting a very relevant study for his research. He said the paper is well structured and contains all the elements of research in terms of statement, data collection, and statistical data. Dr. Rashid also emphasised how ASEAN doesn’t feature much in the paper. He also had a query regarding how much public opinion and the press create public perception, which influences government policy, and why the focus has not been on socialist and one-party states, which have a significant Indian footprint. He discussed the understanding of the Myanmar press and their perception of India, which is missing in this piece. He also had a query regarding why one newspaper was picked and not more for countries like Indonesia and Singapore. He also made comments regarding qualitative aspects being missing in the analysis. Dr. Rashid had a query regarding the scale for measuring whether a story is negative or neutral.

Amb. Chinoy thanked Dr. Adil Rashid for his perceptive remarks and invited Ms. Pandalai to speak.

Ms. Shruti Pandalai

Ms. Pandalai appreciated the Speaker for taking up such an interesting subject. She said the paper would benefit from a little bit of restructuring wherein the concept can be explained briefly and more weightage could be given to the penetration of Indian news in Southeast Asia. She explained how one can conclude by having a few variables in hand. She emphasised how one had to understand the hardware and software aspects of it. The hardware would be why you picked up the examples and papers for the discussion, and the software is regarding ownership control, advertising and sponsorship, audience perception and reception, political and diplomatic impact, regulatory environment, and cultural and linguistic factors. She emphasised how the discussion on the paper needs to be more qualitative. More focus on how a story is chosen, framed, and received is needed. She discussed how there is a need to analyse the news to understand cognitive bias.

Following Ms. Shruti Pandalai’s comments, Amb. Chinoy gave his comments on how the paper needs to include not ASEAN but select Southeast Asian countries and the reason for the exclusion of Cambodia, Laos, and Myanmar in the paper. He also discussed how ‘The Straits Times’ and other publications in Singapore come out with microfilmed versions to archive the previous editions.

Amb. Chinoy opened the floor for questions and comments from MP-IDSA scholars.

Questions and Comments

Dr. P.K. Singh appreciated the Speaker for coming up with an interesting topic and made suggestions like limiting the study of media sentiments and defining how many papers from each country in terms of coverage had been taken up for the study. Dr. Anand Kumar suggested that more focus should be on the boundaries and limits of the survey. Mr. Niranjan Oak had a query regarding the criteria for choosing these countries and publications. He suggested that the study of the op-eds and editorials of these publications would be more beneficial to get a clear picture in terms of sentiments. He also had a query regarding the FDI rules for conglomerates in these countries and whether Indian conglomerates have the opportunity to buy stakes in those media houses to influence opinion in those countries. The Deputy Director, Gp. Capt. (Dr.) Dr. Ajey Lele appreciated the Speaker for an interesting paper and raised a query regarding the owners of those newspapers mentioned in the study and whether there have been any political visits from India or from the countries mentioned in the study in those six months, as these things can have a significant impact.

Amb. Chinoy had a query regarding the parameters of the determination of any news items as apprehensive. Gp. Capt. R.K. Narang raised a query regarding All India Radio’s [AIR] penetration in the Southeast Asia region.

All the queries were answered well by the Speaker, who also agreed to the suggestions given by External and Internal discussants.

Report was prepared by Ms. Julia Jose Thachil, Intern, Counter Terrorism Centre, MP-IDSA.

Mr. Om Prakash Das, Research Fellow at the Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses, made a presentation on “Myanmar at Crossroads: Three Years of Coup and Civil War” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 26 February 2024. The session was moderated by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.), Research Fellow, MP-IDSA. Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General, MP-IDSA and the scholars of MP-IDSA attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

As the junta regime completes three years in power since the 2021 coup d’état, Myanmar finds itself embroiled in an increasingly destructive civil war. Although armed resistance has taken shape over the years, the country has experienced a significant surge in violence since October 2023. An unprecedented level of strategic coordination between several armed groups has won the rebels 35 towns since the launch of Operation 1027. The position of the junta becomes increasingly tenuous as the Myanmar military incurs loss of troops and territories. The enforcement of the People’s Military Service Law has led to further chaos among the general populace. Large-scale displacement and pervasive violence have precipitated a humanitarian crisis in Myanmar. Influx of civilians and defectors across the porous India-Myanmar border has necessitated a discussion on the future of the Free Movement Regime.

Detailed Report

The session commenced with opening remarks by Cmde. Abhay Kumar Singh (Retd.). Cmde. Singh provided an overview of the current crisis in Myanmar. Myanmar has been in a state of civil war since the overthrow of the civilian government by the Tatmadaw in 2021. Cmde. Abhay acknowledged 27 October 2023 as an inflection point in the democratic struggle of Myanmar. He observed that while the periphery of Myanmar has always been unstable, the core Bamar region is also beginning to see violence. The spread of violence across large swathes of the country has caused massive loss of human lives on both sides of the conflict.

Mr. Om Prakash Das commenced his presentation with a couple of maps aimed at geographically locating Myanmar within the broader region, as well as visualising the 7 politico-administrative divisions and the ethnic composition of the country. Among the 8 major ethnic groups of Myanmar, Bamar are the largest and most dominant ethnolinguistic community. A map visualising the spread of conflict across the country was also presented. The complex nature of territorial control and integrity in Myanmar is demonstrated by the fact that 40-50 percent of the country is currently controlled by various ethnic communities.

Having rejected the legitimacy of National League for Democracy’s victory in the 2020 general elections, the Burmese military launched a coup d'état less than three months later. The military takeover has since been met with widespread civilian and armed resistance, as well as international condemnation. An estimated 6000 civilian deaths have occurred within the initial 20 months of the coup. Latest reports indicate the detention of more than 26,000 Burmese nationals as political prisoners since the military coup. Burmese resistance at the highest level has taken an organised political form through the establishment of the National Unity Government- Myanmar’s government in exile. The NUG coordinates with the People’s Defence Forces (PDF)- an umbrella term for the various local militias that have emerged since the coup.

Mr. Das noted Operation 1027, an offensive against the junta in the northern Shan state, as a milestone in the anti-Tatmadaw resistance. Operation 1027 is a coordinated armed rebellion by the Three Brotherhood Alliance (3BHA), comprising of the Arakan Army (AA), the Myanmar National Democratic Alliance Army (MNDAA), and the Ta'ang National Liberation Army (TNLA). 3BHA’s initial areas of influence were limited to Myanmar’s borders with India, China, and Bangladesh. The Arakan Army has a strong hold over the peripheral state of Rakhine. Several other Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAO) throughout the country have engaged the military in combat since October 2023. The Karenni Nationalities Defence Forces (KNDF) in the Kayah state, for example, launched Operation 1111 in November 2023. An unprecedented level of coordinated military strategy by the hitherto disparate factions has yielded significant victories for the rebels across two-thirds of the country.  Conversely, defeats at the hands of the armed rebels have led to low morale and weakened unit cohesion among the military troops. Over 14000 soldiers of the Myanmar army have defected since the 2021 coup. 4000 soldiers have reneged since the launch of Operation 1027 alone.

There also exists the case of an unfolding humanitarian crisis. The United Nations figures indicate the displacement of close to 2.6 million people within Myanmar. The civil war has also triggered the emigration of over 8 lakh Burmese nationals. Around 60,000 Burmese nationals are estimated to have taken refuge in India.

The junta government is currently contending with escalating casualties and defections amidst an unpopular war, compelling it to contemplate contentious measures such as mandatory military service to address manpower shortages. However, this initiative entails significant political risks, as evidenced by incidents of backlash among young adults in response to enforced mandatory military service. In this scenario, Mr. Das states that the throne of junta is shaking, as the periphery and southern regions are virtually out of control of the military.

The military strongly believes in a unique national narrative of its crucial guardian role. It employs both ideological loyalty and financial incentives to maintain the dedication of its officers. There had been no significant internal dissent that threatens the stability of Myanmar military until the 2021 coup.

Mr. Das also discussed the contradictions within the anti-junta forces. Ethnic Armed Organisations (EAOs) and PDFs have different visions for the future of Myanmar and could face challenges in power-sharing and moderating their respective ideological positions.

After the coup, all the democratic forces came together and tried to structure their aspirations – including ethnic minorities. They published a new Federal Democracy Charter the main objective of which was the removal of the military dictatorship and abolishment of the 2008 constitution which gave the military a political role in the parliament. This charter deals with the questions about how certain issues need to be approached and highlights legal and political considerations to support interim institutions' constitution-building efforts.

Reflecting on India-Myanmar relations, Mr. Das emphasised on the fact that Myanmar has been an important country for India’s Look East, Act East and Neighbourhood First policies. He highlighted that Myanmar is an important member of Bay of Bengal Initiative for Multi-Sectoral Technical and Economic Cooperation (BIMSTEC), Mekong-Ganga Cooperation, and that Myanmar is India’s gateway to South-East Asia.

He highlighted India’s investments in various infrastructure projects, including the Kaladan Multimodal Transit Project that provides an alternative route to the significantly important Siliguri Corridor. Due to the civil war, the area from Sittwe to Paletwa (that falls in the Rakhine state) has now been captured by the Arakan Army. And the area between Paletwa to Mizoram border falls under the Chin State, and thus the project has reached a state of stalemate.

India has displayed a balanced approach towards Myanmar’s junta and to the pro-democratic movement, while officially advocating for the restoration of democracy in the country. India has also engaged with the junta, while creating a delicate balance between supporting democracy while maintaining pragmatic ties with the Junta to secure interest.

Concerning China’s role in Myanmar, Mr. Das said that, the latter is important for China to improve its strategic presence in the Indian Ocean and for China’s long-term Blue Ocean objective. Myanmar also serves as a trading outlet to the Indian Ocean for China’s inland province of Sichuan.

The speaker concluded by saying that the probability of the junta regaining its lost territories is very low. The junta, now in a defensive position, is trying to protect the supply routes. Although international actors may push for a negotiated reset, the democratic forces have shown inclination towards negotiating with the military.

Questions and Comments

Ambassador Sujan R. Chinoy, Director General MP-IDSA, complimented Mr. Om Prakash Das for his presentation on a topical issue. He remarked that the international community has long had great expectations of Myanmar. Aung San Suu Kyi had moved the country towards greater democratic impulses, the United States wanted to normalise relations, and there existed interest in Myanmar’s economy. The air of optimism lasted five to seven years before the country descended into cyclical chaos. Amb. Chinoy identified two facets to the internal instability: The Junta’s difficulty in pacifying the periphery, and the pervasiveness of the PDFs that are engaged in action and counter-action against the junta. China has long had interests across the border. Amb. Chinoy opined that any kind of land connectivity, within the Kaladan multi modal project, is difficult to attain because of the sectional progress and changing situation on ground. He suggested that there may be merit in bypassing Myanmar through maritime routes if the land corridor is deemed infeasible in the finite future. According to Amb. Chinoy, hardening of borders in the last mile areas should be a priority. Identifying the different types of transgressions across the India-Myanmar border, he argued for centre-state government convergence on the future of the Free Movement Regime (FMR).  Amb. Chinoy invited Dr. Pushpita Das to shed some more light on the FMR and the challenges of fencing the border.

The MP-IDSA scholars posed a wide array of questions ranging from the cultural linkages between India and Myanmar to whether the growing unrest in Myanmar would have a bearing on separatist movements in Northeast India. Reference was made to the displacement of Rohingyas. The prospect of an outreach to the local ethnic groups, similar to the Chinese policy, was also discussed.Mr. Om Prakash Das provided insightful answers to the questions and comments raised by the Director General and the MP-IDSA scholars.

Report prepared by Ms. Aditi Dhaundiyal, Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik, Research Fellow, South Asia Centre delivered a presentation on “Election and Opposition Politics in Bangladesh” in the weekly Monday Morning Meeting held on 12 February 2024. The meeting was moderated by Dr. Gulbin Sultana, Associate Fellow, South Asia Centre. Scholars of the Institute attended the event.

Executive Summary

The 12th General Parliamentary Election was held in Bangladesh on 7 January 2024. The Awami League has won elections consecutively for the fourth time since 2008 by winning 222 seats in the National Assembly. The current opposition party, the Jatiya Party managed to secure 11 seats. The main opposition party, Bangladesh Nationalist Party (BNP) boycotted the elections. The BNP has taken a position that there cannot be free and fair election under the incumbent Election Commission of Bangladesh. In this election, voter turnout was about 40 per cent which was considerably low compared to the past elections.

Detailed Report

In her opening remarks, Dr. Gulbin Sultana offered a brief overview of Bangladesh Parliamentary Elections and politics of Bangladesh.

Dr. Smruti Pattanaik started the presentation by elaborating the facts and figures of the 12th Parliamentary Election and opposition politics. She said that the Awami League led by Sheikh Hasina has won the elections consecutively for the fourth time and out of 300 seats they won 222 seats in this election. 28 registered political parties participated in this election, and nearly 2000 candidates contested. Out of 437 independent candidates 382 were from Awami League, and many would believe that they were propped up as dummy candidates to give a semblance of competition. BNP boycotted this election by saying that free and fair election was not possible under the present Election Commission. In 2018, the BNP had contested the election and managed to win only 7 seats. The BNP put forward two preconditions for its participation - resignation of Sheikh Hasina and establishment of a caretaker government.

Further, Dr. Pattanaik said that the two principal political parties, Awami League and BNP, had equal vote share in the past and in Bangladesh, all anti-Awami League forces veer towards the BNP as an alternative. The BNP depended on the Western countries to pressurise the Awami League. It did not have cadres motivated enough to engage in street fights with the ruling party cadres and therefore, the BNP’s stance that it would not allow the election to happen remained merely on paper. After the rally on 28th November 2023 and subsequent violence many of the top BNP leaders were arrested and many went into hiding. BNP cadres were demoralised as there was no one to lead them from the front. BNP did not make any attempt to engage with India as they had done prior to 2018 elections, according to Ms. Pattanaik.  

The Jamaat-e-Islami, an influential religious party in Bangladesh, also decided not to participate in this election. It had participated in the 2018 election as part of the broader alliance of opposition led by the BNP. Jamaat-e-Islami has been deregistered as a party in Bangladesh because its constitution militates against the Constitution of the country which is secular. However, JeI is not in a hurry to capture political power as they are interested in Islamisation of the society at large.

Dr. Pattanaik also discussed India's relations with Bangladesh. During the G20 summit, India facilitated the meeting between the Prime Minister Sheikh Hasina and President Biden. Those groups who are opposed to Hasina in Bangladesh carried out an ‘India Out’ campaign in the social media. However, this campaign did not get traction as majority of the essential goods are imported from India. She attributed the growing anti-Indianism to the prevailing perception in Bangladesh that India is responsible for Hasina’s continuation in power in Bangladesh.

She also held that the ruling Awami League had empowered the paramilitary force of Bangladesh, the Ansar Bahini, giving it power to arrest and detain prior to the election. The US had imposed visa restriction on anyone – individual and entities – who were seen as obstructing free and fair election in Bangladesh.

Questions and Comments

After the presentation ended, the moderator opened the floor for questions and comments. There was a question about whether Bangladesh’s policies facilitated collaboration between the private industries of the two countries. There was also a question on the role of China and how the people in Bangladesh perceived its role and the relationship between the political parties and China. Another question from the floor was on how long Awami League could endure in power and if there was any possibility of Awami League toning down its anti-BNP stance. There was also a query about the people of Bangladesh’s  views about the role of Japan, Russia, US and South Korea. Dr. Pattanaik responded to the comments and questions raised by the scholars of MP-IDSA.

Report prepared by Mr. Shailendra, Intern, South Asia Centre, MP-IDSA.