MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar : India's Pacific Islands' Outreach: Understanding Regional Narratives, Geopolitics and Opportunities - An Introduction.

An MP-IDSA Fellows Seminar presentation by Ms. Shruti Pandalai, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA, on “India’s Pacific Islands’ Outreach: Understanding Regional Narratives, Geopolitics and Opportunities – An Introduction” was held on 17 August 2023. It was Chaired by Amb. Sujan Chinoy, Director General, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA). The External Discussants were Dr. Stuti Banerjee, Senior Research Fellow, Indian Council of World Affairs and Mr. Constantino Xavier, Fellow in Foreign Policy and Security Studies at the Centre for Social and Economic Progress (CSEP) in New Delhi. Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh, Research Fellow, MP-IDSA and Dr. Tenjemeren Ao, Associate Fellow, MP-IDSA were Internal Discussants. 

Executive Summary

The narrative of “the return of geopolitics” to the Pacific Island Countries (PICs) has been gaining traction in the larger discourse in the Indo-Pacific, primarily driven by the anxiety over the People’s Republic of China’s (PRC’s) expanding engagement in the region. The aggravation of international tensions are amplified by Sino-US rivalry, even as the Islands navigate intra-regional frictions, economic development challenges, illegal fishing, climate change, and issues related to self-determination and decolonisation. The presentation tried to introduce the relevance of this contested geography to regional and extra-regional players, unpack the internal dynamics of regional tensions, and examine the agency of PICs. It reflected on how China's actions are redefining geopolitics in the region and discussed these contested narratives. Within this backdrop, it also explored how Indian engagement has been perceived in the region and concluded with prescriptive options of steps India could take, including with regional partners, to anchor a meaningful presence.

Detailed Report

The seminar began with the Chair and Director–General of MP-IDSA, Amb. Sujan Chinoy – introducing the topic, panel and giving his insight on the theme of the paper. This was followed by a presentation by Ms. Shruti Pandalai. After this, the external and internal commentators gave their respective insights, followed by a round of questions and answers.

Ambassador Sujan Chinoy

In his opening remarks, the Chair, Amb. Sujan Chinoy gave extensive insights on this topic and made a critical analysis of the paper. He mentioned that China’s growing footprint in the region in regard to regional connect and infrastructural development must be examined. He said that the paper was timely and more importantly it not only introduced the region but also how this region is significant for India’s interests. It also broadly covered many important aspects of this region and sub–regions – Micronesia, Melanesia and Polynesia.

The Chair began by focusing on Micronesia, emphasising how this region in particular was a key theatre of World War II, and how this region today carries a baggage of history, particularly in the context of nuclear testing. He used the example of the Republic of the Marshall Islands. It was occupied by the Japanese first, and afterwards by the Americans. The Chair further highlighted the fact that this region has been at the forefront of negotiations on the problem of climate change. He also mentioned how these countries have filed a case to stop nuclear testing, an issue with historical baggage for the nations here and the PICs have a prominent voice at the United Nations.

Next, the Chair focused on Melanesia, which lies to the south of Micronesia. Many countries like the US, Germany and France, according to him have a deep interest in the region. Australia and New Zealand have traditionally enjoyed a prominent foothold here. There’s also a newfound concern about the Chinese presence here after the existence of a geopolitical vacuum here. About Polynesia, the Chair reflected that it is a huge region and, France is a big player in the region, as it has its colonies there.

At this juncture, the Chair talked about the compulsions that drive the major players in this region. The main reasons these countries propagate their relevance in the region is that they have had a presence there for a very long time. Countries like France and Britain were able to dismiss extra-regional claims due to their colonial history, as well as France holding some land (like New Caledonia and French Polynesia) that grants them an extensive maritime territory in the region. As a geopolitical player, Japan has fought key conflicts in the region and cannot be overlooked. This is especially significant in light of Japan's transformation from a coloniser to a major power investing heavily in infrastructure.

New Zealand, is a smaller player, unlike Australia and has a presence in the immediate neighbourhood. Today, Island nations do not accept patronizing historical dynamics. China is not a new presence in the region. Chinese people have had their presence there through migration. For instance, there are Chinese shopkeepers and businessmen in many Pacific Island nations for long. As a result, China also enjoys the diaspora advantage in the region which it seeks to exploit to its benefit.

China meets the impulse for infrastructural development of island nations, while they view American, Australian and New Zealand’s presence as being at a lower pitch. China has a range of interests in the region. This region is mineral-rich, and countries here have signed up for the Chinese initiative, the Belt and Road Initiative (BRI). The access to this area is also significant for security and geopolitical purposes for China, like satellite tracking and countering Taiwan – since some of the few remaining countries which recognize Taiwan are PICs. A critical strategic importance of this area is “breaking out in the Pacific”, since it is the only area where China can actually potentially contain and monitor American presence in its periphery. Russia was also present in the region but had limited itself only to the Kurile Islands.

As for India, the Chair said that he agreed with the presenter that India is vocal as a voice of the Global South and thus PICs come under the purview of India’s outreach to the Global South. There are drivers for engagement with the PICs. India has taken initiatives like the Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS), which showcase India’s capacity to sympathise with PICs through several iterations since 2014, which is followed by the 2017 visit of Gen. VK Singh to Fiji and PM Modi’s visit to Papua New Guinea in 2021. The Chair also cautioned about the potentiality of outreach that India can have in the region. Its lack of ground presence, and the distance between India and the PICs are major limitations. Also, India has a limited presence also due to third party partnership and our lack of ability to deliver projects we have committed to in time. Better delivery on projects and better focus, like we have been doing in Africa, can ensure that we do better in the Pacific region if that is what we want to do. There is a major logistical problem when it comes to trying to establish and maintain diplomatic presence in the region, and there are also issues relating to security, transparency and accountability.

According to the Chair, while it is true that India has good relations with the US, France, Australia and New Zealand, it does not mean that it can guarantee a better presence for India in the region. But, despite limitations, what plays to India’s advantage is that it is perceived as an alternative to the binary of US–China rivalry and that it is also viewed in a favourable light by the US, Australia, and New Zealand. The Chair stated that the scope of India expanding its presence in the region needs to be examined by scholars. And, at the end of the day, India’s primary region and interests lie in the Indian Ocean Region, while balancing the naval and continental sphere. The Pacific is not a natural sphere for India, but equally, India has interests there.

Ms. Shruti Pandalai

Ms. Pandalai started her presentation by thanking the Director General for Chairing the session and giving some valuable insights from a practitioner’s lens and as someone who has served in the Pacific region. She also thanked Dr. Xavier and Dr. Banerjee for being External Discussants and Dr. Kumar and Dr. Ao for being Internal Discussants for her Fellow Seminar. She stated that her paper is aimed at being a beginner’s guide to understand the new geostrategic space of the Pacific Island region and India’s outreach – in the context of developing geopolitical contestations in the larger Indo-Pacific region.

According to Ms. Pandalai, this region does not only come in focus because of US-China rivalry but also because of its deeply contested past and colonial legacy, as also pointed out by the Chair. It has often displayed the strength of its regionalism with several moments of unparalleled agency in multilateral forums. It is also grappling with existential crisis with the emergence of issues like climate change while navigating through the very complicated superpower competition in the region. From her perspective, this larger narrative started with many scholars focusing on this region in the larger context of Indo-Pacific geopolitics following Chinese Foreign Minister Wang Yi’s visit to Solomon Islands in 2022 which was concluded with signing of a defence pact between China and Solomon Islands. On the other end of the narrative for her, lie the visuals of Prime Minister Modi’s successful visit to the Pacific Islands for the Forum of India and Pacific Cooperation (FIPIC) Summit. She stated that between these two significant events, a lot has happened in the region – which is paramount to analyse and understand, and which she has attempted to do in this paper.

Following this, she briefly explained the structure of her paper, where she analysed the narrative of ‘return of geopolitics’ to the Pacific Islands and why it gained traction, which for her is the rising anxiety in people while witnessing increasing prominence of China in this geopolitical space. She also remarked that we have been observing exacerbation of international tensions which are further amplified by Sino – US rivalry, even as these islands navigate intra-regional frictions, challenges of economic development, illegal fishing, climate change, and issues related to self – determination and decolonisation. According to Ms. Pandalai, India’s renewed outreach to the region under the leadership of PM Modi has found a wide appeal as also seen in his recent visit. Thus, in her presentation she first introduced the relevance of this strategic geography, followed by looking into the regional tensions and what the existing narratives there are. She was to then expand on how China’s presence has redefined the geopolitics of the region and how it brought more contested narratives. With this backdrop, she would also investigate the scope of India’s engagement with the region.

Ms. Pandalai then introduced the geography of PICs and their location in the map and the sub-regions of Melanesia, Polynesia, and Micronesia. She highlighted how this region has a complicated geopolitical arrangement. This region is often seen as the backyard of Australia due to its geographical location. She also talked about the spheres of influence in the region which are highly contested and overlapping in nature.

She then showed a historical chart which showcased the full historical trajectory of these island nations and their people. Ms. Pandalai specifically focused on the beginning of colonial history of the region with the arrival of explorers like James Cook in the Pacific Islands. She then talked about the 19th century, when the island nations were occupied by different European powers, USA and Japan, followed by the Pacific Wars during the years of World War II. She mentioned that from an American perspective, this region has been like an “American Lake” where Australia and New Zealand are deputy sheriffs for the US. The region has remained majorly neglected and Chinese military presence in the region is feared by the West.

In terms of its economic imperative, Ms. Pandalai stated that there is acute poverty in the region while it is rich in resources. The PICs are dependent on western countries and have poor infrastructure. Entry of China in the region gave these countries options other than the West. On the other hand, in terms of its strategic imperative, this region is a theatre of showcasing of US-China rivalry, and while the US views the region as a part of its concept of ‘Island Chains’ as a defensive parameter, China sees the region as a springboard and an integral part of its “Blue Water Navy” capacities. She stated that the major actors in this region are the US, France, Japan, Australia, New Zealand and China and analysed their respective spheres of influence in the region.

She further stated that the US has 11 controlled territories in the region. It has amplified its outreach to the region under the Biden administration which includes the Pacific Island Summit and Blue Pacific Programme under which the US gives aid to the PICs especially in the domain of climate change. There are many unresolved undercurrent issues between the US and PICs. France, on the other hand, has an Exclusive Economic Zone in the region via French Polynesia and New Caledonia. New Caledonia also has 25% of the world’s nickel deposits. There is also significant focus on PICs in the French Strategy on Indo-Pacific. It has also invested 60 million Euros for mitigating climate change and is also cooperating in the areas of science and technology. France is also relevant because of its colonial footprint in the region.

For Japan, this region is an important strategic region due to fisheries and maritime routes. The presence of Japan in the region is also important for its own security. Japan’s aid to the region has been focused on infrastructure. Nuclear waste is a major area of contestation between the PICs and Japan. New Zealand and Australia are regional powers here. New Zealand poses itself as a nation which is “in and of the Pacific” especially because of its significant Māori population. The Pacific is an important component of New Zealand’s security documents, like defence papers, especially concerning the maritime domain. New Zealand provides PICs with massive aid because of Chinese presence and it is not comfortable with the approach of the US and Australia of militarisation in the region to counter Chinese presence. On the other hand, Australia is seen as a ‘big brother’ by the PICs, a hegemon in the region and thus Australia has testy relations with the PICs. Even though Australia has done a lot of work in the region, it fails to translate into influence with respect to the PICs. Wang Yi’s visit to Solomon Islands was a deal breaker for Australia, which turned out to be a really bad idea.

According to Ms. Pandalai, China has crafted a narrative when it comes to the region which highlights and criticises the actions of the West and historical crimes committed by them. This narrative also banks on the fact the oldest Chinese trading house still exists in the region. For China, the Pacific is an important region because it wants to diminish the influence of and further isolate Taiwan, given that the majority of its diplomatic partners are the PICs. Other than that, it also seeks to limit the US presence at its maritime periphery. The PICs are also an important part of China’s BRI project and are significant beneficiaries of Chinese investments and security agreements.

Further, the Speaker talked about the Pacific Islands’ Forum which expanded the concept of security in 2018 and in 2022 launched the ‘2050 Strategy for the Blue Pacific’. This highlights that PICs have agency especially in the domain of Climate Change, and that for the PICs climate change is a more important issue than geopolitics. She highlighted that China’s increasing engagement with the region is waking up other regional powers and thus there is a renewed focus especially in areas of cooperation like 5G and climate finance.

Ms. Pandalai also talked about India’s relations with the PICs. She mentioned that India has historical and cultural ties with Fiji and PICs’ relations with India have always functioned under the framework of South – South Cooperation. The region started to matter more to India from the prism of Indo-Pacific at least normatively. India has also developed its presence as a development partner in the region. It sent aid to Tonga in 1973 for the first time and since 2006, the approach towards aid and developmental projects has been government-centric. India has a multi-sectoral approach covering areas from education, cybersecurity, climate change and others when cooperating with the PICs. For India, according to Ms. Pandalai, the drivers of engagement with the PICs are India’s rising role as a development partner of choice, beyond the binary of US and China, especially as the President of G20, their support in organisations like the UN, availability of rich resources in the PICs and checking Chinese presence in the Indian Ocean Region and the Pacific. India is gaining a more meaningful presence in the region via multilateral forums like the International Solar Alliance (ISA), Coalition for Disaster Resilient Infrastructure (CDRI), Infrastructure for Resilient Island States (IRIS) and others. She also mentioned the Indian investments in the region and the status of projects in areas like skill development, space technologies that India is working on with the PICs, and the limitations on delivering on those projects. She then deliberated upon ideas for further cooperation, which is the usage of third party resources, in other words, trilateral cooperation – which can be the solution to ‘India’s Delivery Deficit’. Some of the examples that she gave to substantiate this include trilateral cooperation with PICs and Japan in many areas, the US in food sector and cooperation with Australia and New Zealand in high-technologies and France in climate change and other areas.

In conclusion, Ms. Pandalai stated that meaningful presence is not equivalent to strategic overreach, and as an observer one should be careful about that when it comes to India’s outreach to the Pacific Islands. India needs to channel its efforts and resources in areas where PICs actually need assistance for. She also mentioned that climate change and renewable energy are important areas for cooperation for India and the PICs.

Dr. Constantino Xavier

Dr. Xavier complimented the paper, for its timeliness and the way it was presented. He also highlighted that India’s Indo–Pacific strategy does not focus enough on the Pacific region, which is why there is a need to see the best way for India to be present in the region. At this juncture, therefore, a very important and fundamental question to investigate is what is the best way for India to be present there and is this region really important for India? Dr. Xavier held the opinion that India should do less and not try to be everywhere all the time. He also pointed out that we need to understand why would India be needed in the region from the perspective of Australia, New Zealand, Japan and the US. While trilateral cooperation is an effective tool for now, he highlights that it is important for India to find a niche in the long run and work upon it.

Dr. Xavier suggested that Russia could probably be added and that more attention should be paid to the EU and the UK as geopolitical actors in the region. He stated that the section on China was longer than needed since everyone has an understanding concerning Chinese presence in the region. Dr. Xavier also said that India needs to maintain a more consistent diplomatic presence in the region and it is important to analyse how that can be achieved. He emphasised on the need of having Indian missions on ground and not just having one Embassy in charge of many countries. And, by observing the actions and presence of PICs in multilateral and regional forums, and by engaging with them, India can learn from the PICs and other actors there and apply those lessons in the Indian Ocean Region. Lastly, he said that India has a rising profile but its credibility of what it is doing, in terms of the delivery of their commitment is at stake, and sometimes it is rather better to not do anything than to do something badly.

Dr. Stuti Banerjee

Dr. Banerjee congratulated Ms. Pandalai on the presentation of her paper. She suggested that the material of her paper be split into two parts, one focusing on the larger geopolitics of the Pacific Islands Region and the other on India’s outreach and engagement with the PICs. She remarked upon the timely nature of this paper. According to her, this region is not well known and thus it is important to talk about this, and this paper is a nice way to begin research on this region, which is important to understand. She drew everyone’s attention to the fact that there are differing visions of Indo-Pacific for different countries, and China rejects the notion of Indo-Pacific altogether. Unlike for other powers that have been discussed, for China, the PICs are an independent region of their own, are not a part of a larger geopolitical narrative, thus it has a different strategy for the region. India, on the other hand has advantage in the region due to two factors, its non-threatening image and the Indian diaspora. Despite the distance, the PICs are important for India because of economic reasons – financial assistance, developmental projects and so on. She suggested that we should also look into how this region is important from a political and security angle and have a holistic strategic vision.

She also brought out the crucial question of why there was a vacuum created in this region until recently, due to the pull-out and lack of engagement of the US, Australia and New Zealand since the end of Cold War. Dr. Banerjee also emphasised the need to investigate New Zealand’s outlook to the PICs – since that will highlight the differences in approach within the allied nations. At this juncture, she also mentioned the contribution of Indian diaspora in the region, and the role played by soft power aspects like people-to-people engagement and cultural relations in India’s outreach to the region. She then suggested that we also should look into the way PICs are responding to the attention they are receiving and how they plan to leverage that, what do they want and finally what do they expect from India?

She highlighted that it is important to note that there are differences between the PICs themselves and they have different perspectives. Responses of civil society in the PICs to BRI/Chinese presence and actions of other countries is another aspect that needs to be investigated, according to Dr. Banerjee. Lastly, she wanted to know how India is leveraging this strategic focus and its contributions made in multiple sectors in the region? She also asked about India’s underlying interests for being part of these developmental projects – and whether this could eventually lead to PICs collaborating with India in the Indian Ocean Region.

Dr. Prashant Kumar Singh

Dr. Singh congratulated Ms. Pandalai and commented that it was a good paper with a good topic. He suggested that the paper should not be split and should be made into a monograph. He also suggested that there should be a more sharp and in-depth focus on the historical part, especially on patterns of colonialism. According to him, when talking about ‘return to geopolitics’ in the region, we need to focus first on security, economics, environmental issues and debates; the PICs’ interests and demands, like the case of nuclear weapons and then we should come to geopolitics. He thought that there could have been more investigation done on analysing ways in which India could possibly expand its presence, rather than getting restricted to the difficulties and challenges. 

Dr. Tenjemeren Ao

Dr. Ao congratulated Ms. Pandalai for her crisp paper. He thought that the paper could be divided into different sections and the last section had a lot of scope. For him, this paper could be seen as a primer towards understanding India’s evolving engagement with the PICs. He also commended the way Ms. Pandalai analysed the role played by internal and external actors in shaping the region’s geopolitical landscape, in the larger Indo-Pacific. Dr. Ao brought out two major points. First, he commended the realistic approach taken in acknowledging India’s limitations and expectations from the PICs, while the priority for India is its extended neighbourhood. So therefore, it is paramount for India to come up with innovative ways to navigate its resources between the PICs and its extended neighbourhood. He concluded his remarks by highlighting that this region has a complex history and its internal political, economic, strategic imperatives are intertwined and are shaping PICs’ external engagement. The special focus on challenges faced by these countries like climate change and health can help us understand why these countries are engaging with specific powers. He also mentioned that the Pacific Islands’ Forum (PIF) has also identified climate change as the greatest threat for PICs and not geopolitical contestation. And that the PIF could derive some lessons from ASEAN in terms of managing to limit jostling of major powers.

Questions and Comments

There were some comments from the audience. One important comment, highlighted that from the naval side, the Pacific Islands are an important region for protecting the Sea Lines of Communication and the location of the Pacific makes it critical for both Australia and the US and Chinese control can severely restrict their movement. Another comment was focused on the recent elections in New Caledonia and the speculation about French interference. Questions centred around the reasons for India to engage with PICs and what would be the optimal strategy for India to engage with the region.

Ms. Shruti Pandalai thanked the Chair, the Discussants and the audience for their valuable feedback. She responded to the comments and mentioned that her objective was to understand this region through strategic narratives and what India as a leader of the Global South has done and can do with respect to this region.

Report prepared by Ms. Yukti Panwar, Research Intern, Southeast Asia and Oceania Centre, MP-IDSA.