Recent developments in the State of Jammu and Kashmir have been a source of alarm on a variety of counts. Since the decline of militancy in the Valley in recent years, disaffection was known to have existed, but the extent of it was perhaps underestimated. A related factor of concern is that the uprising in the Valley was not Pakistan-sponsored, and yet generated pro-Pakistan sentiments. The vitiated relationship between Jammu and the Valley that could trigger such immense disruption of normal life was also unanticipated.

Every year the United States releases a report on global terrorist activities as required by its domestic law. The latest report is titled Country Reports on Terrorism and includes developments in countries in which acts of terrorism occurred as well as countries that are state sponsors of terrorism. It also provides information on terrorist groups responsible for the death, kidnapping, or injury of Americans. An analysis of these reports over the last few years reveals significant changes in the American perspective on terrorism over the years, especially with reference to Pakistan.

Ever since the new democratically elected government assumed office in Pakistan, analysts have drawn up exhaustive priority lists of tasks before it. These range from restoring civilian pre-eminence over the military, countering terrorism, building democratic institutions, freedom of the media, and restoration of the judiciary. The new government, however, will do well to also order a review of the use of covert action as an instrument of state policy, which has been a major factor for the ills that afflict Pakistan and undermines its credibility in the international community.

In a turnaround of events, the recent encounter with terrorists in Samba area and the reported infiltration of a large group of terrorists through the international border (IB) of Jammu region is a clear indication that levels of infiltration in Jammu & Kashmir are likely to see an increase this summer. The situation in the State was fast moving towards normalcy and hectic political activities were on with more political parties and other groups joining the mainstream, in a run up to elections later this year.

After nearly two decades of active militancy and disturbed conditions, Jammu and Kashmir is today witnessing a distinct change in the ground situation and signs of return to normalcy are clearly noticeable. Commercial activity in the State has picked up, people are no longer hesitant to move out at night and participate enthusiastically in national and religious functions. This year Kashmiri Pandits performed puja in ancient Hindu temples in the heart of the Valley and celebrated Dussehra in Srinagar after a gap of 20 years.

Pakistan has at present a great many internal and external troubles to cater for. Islamabad is still feeling the after-effects of the Lal Masjid operation, while simultaneously fighting a seemingly uphill battle to rein in support for militancy within the political, defence, and intelligence establishments. In addition, Islamabad is struggling to keep a lid on the instability that plagues its western border regions.

The United Jehad Council (UJC) – an umbrella organisation of 13 Kashmiri militant groups and five non-Kashmiri terrorist groups with observer status – signed a declaration on October 16 banning the use, production or trade of victim-activated anti-personnel mines as prohibited under the 1997 Mine Ban Treaty.

A surge in infiltration attempts by heavily armed terrorists across the Line of Control (LoC) in J&K has been reported in the last two months. With the snow receding on the Pir Panjal range of mountains along the LoC and the passes opening up, terrorists waiting in training camps in Pakistan/PoK are attempting to sneak into the State. The period April to July is generally a peak period of infiltration.