New Delhi, December 8 2011: Democracy in the Middle East is in shackles and there is a failure of secularism in that part of the world, stated Dr Mordechai Kedar, Senior Research Fellow, BESA. Dr Kedar was speaking on "The Arab Spring: An Israeli Perspective" on the second day of the 11th Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (IDSA)– Begin Sadat Center for Strategic Studies (BESA) Track-II Dialogue, at IDSA on Thursday, November 8, 2011. Addressing the gathering, Dr Kedar highlighted the prevalence of two trends in Arab Spring – Trend towards Islamism, ie religious traditions, as seen in Egypt, Tunisia and Gaza and State Fragmentation on Tribal Lines, as in Iraq, Yemen and Libya. He attributed these trends to the colonial past of the region, where boundaries were drawn without taking into account the ethnic and the tribal factors.
The impact of the Arab Spring has been different in different states. The Gulf Emirates, except Bahrain, has managed to control the unrest, said Dr Kedar. Oil is not the reason of stability in the Gulf State, but the leadership has managed to ensure the homogeneity of society.
He concluded by saying that there could be problems in Algeria and Jordan in the future.
Also speaking on the occasion was Dr Eytan Gilboa from BESA, who threw light on the selective approach of the West towards the Middle East. He insisted that while the rhetoric about uprising in the Mid East has been identical, the action of Western Powers in each case has been different, be it Egypt, Libya or Syria.
He further said that the reactions have come from Real Politic, attributing three elements to this - relations and interest, evolution and assessments and attitude of other major powers.
The general perception is that the end of the authoritarian rule will bring about liberal democratic government. However, what people have not realised is that there is a move from autocracy to ‘mobocracy’, he insisted. He also warned that there are chances of a long ‘Arab Winter’ before the ‘Arab Spring’ finally sets in.
Dr Efraim Inbar, Director, BESA, also spoke about the strategic implications of Arab Spring on Israel, articulating a view that the current weakening of the states or Arab Spring is good for Israel to some extent. However, the country may still be confronted with the new elite in the neighbouring countries, which may endanger Israel’s security. A militarization of Sanai may lead to problems for Israel.
The other trend could be of greater Islamisation of the region and sub nationalism and erosion in deterrence. Losing Turkey has been a big loss for Israel as there is greater isolation of Israel today. Iran remains the major concern for Israel.
Dr Inbar did not see hope for any pro-western regime in Syria. He perceived that a decline of the US influence in Israel is not conducive for the country. The Middle East Peace Process has come to an end and in the current context, Israel will have to invest more in building new alliances and partnerships, he concluded.
The ‘Arab Spring’ is the wave of popular protests against the despotic rulers in the Arab countries, which has been a significant development in the political landscape of the region. The mass protests, till date, have dethroned three long serving autocratic rulers - Zine El Abidine Ben Ali of Tunisia, Hosni Mubarak of Egypt, Muammar Gaddafi of Libya and fourth leader - Ali Abdullah Saleh of Yemen has already signed an agreement to quit soon. Mass protests and demonstrations were held in all the above countries against the regimes demanding more political freedom and socio-economic development. In a number of places the protesters have faced with strong reactions from the police and the military which has incited violent behaviour from the protesters.
The implications of the uprisings have been felt not only in the region, but outside the region as well. There has been rise in oil prices, increasing sectarian tension between the Shia and Sunni blocks in the region, increasing external intervention, possible rise of the Islamists etc because of these developments. India is deeply concerned about the political developments in the region. India is affected by the rising global oil prices and concerned about the safety and security of around six million strong Indian diaspora in the region. India’s response to the Arab Spring has been in tune with its traditional non-interventionist policies towards the region. India’s interest in the region such as import of oil, non-oil trade, presence of around six million Indians in the region, India’s interests in engaging the Arab and the Islamic world etc have been the major factors in determining India’s position over the issue.
Long ‘Arab Winter’ before ‘Arab Spring’ Finally Sets In: BESA