Monday Morning Meeting on The Paradox of South Korea’s Quest for Nuclear Weapons

Dr. Ranjit Kumar Dhawan, Associate Fellow, Manohar Parrikar Institute for Defence Studies and Analyses (MP-IDSA), New Delhi spoke on “The Paradox of South Korea’s Quest for Nuclear Weapons” at the Monday Morning Meeting held on 2 September 2024. The session was moderated by Mr. Niranjan Oak, Research Analyst, MP-IDSA. MP-IDSA scholars attended the meeting.

Executive Summary

The Korean Peninsula is of strategic importance for the United States in its efforts to balance China as well as Russia. The resurgence of the debate whether South Korea should develop its own nuclear arsenal has gained much attention in the recent times. President Yoon Suk Yeol also made a statement in favour of developing nuclear weapons in 2023, however, retracting the same later. This move has sparked a discussion whether South Korea should go nuclear. The session focused on various aspects regarding concerns about the nuclear development of South Korea, providing a comprehensive analysis of the topic.

Detailed Report

The session began with opening remarks by Mr. Niranjan Oak, giving an introduction of the topic wherein he shared a brief history of South Korea’s move towards nuclear technology. Further, he discussed drivers that led to the current contemplation of South Korea’s seeming necessity for nuclear weapons. Some of the drivers were the exponential rise in tests by North Korea and its increasing proximity towards China and Russia, its discussion on employment of tactical nuclear weapons, and development of Intercontinental Ballistic Missiles (ICBMs) with the ability to reach continental United States. The aforementioned factors have ignited the discussion on the need for owning nuclear weapons in South Korea, wherein numerous surveys have revealed the public opinion in favour of developing the nation’s own nuclear weapons, given its credible civil nuclear industry.

Dr. Ranjit Kumar Dhawan began his presentation by explaining that a major reason behind the requirement of nuclear warheads in South Korea is North Korea’s strengthening of its conventional and nuclear weapons capability and its cooperative alliance with Russia in the past few years. Another concern is America’s withdrawal of its armed forces from South Korea. Highlighting the history briefly and the events consequent to the Korean War, he described how geopolitics has evolved over the decades. He focused on nuclear development in North and South Korea, the strength and numbers of the armed forces of both the nations and the consecutive nuclearisation of the Korean Peninsula.

Apart from security aspects, political considerations including government policies and public opinion regarding the development of nuclear weapons were discussed. Citing the data in the “KINU Unification Survey 2024: North Korea’s Two-State Claim/US Presidential Election Outlook and ROK-US Relations”, published by Korea Institute for National Unification in June 2024, Dr. Dhawan stated that it showed public demand for South Korea’s own nuclear warheads surpassing the comparative percentage of people wanting US nuclear umbrella. Consequent to the visit of Russian President Vladimir Putin to Pyongyang, Seoul signed an agreement on the Guidelines for Nuclear Deterrence and Nuclear Operations on the Korean Peninsula with the US on 11 July 2024. Pyongyang reacted by threatening to increase its nuclear arsenal against the agreement between US and South Korea.

Further into his presentation, Dr. Dhawan pointed out challenges that might impact the current situation and further policies of South Korea. He pointed out four possibilities resulting from South Korea’s nuclearisation, on the basis of the existing literature:

• A domino effect in the East Asian region, specifically in Taiwan and Japan
• Withdrawal from the Non – Proliferation Treaty, resulting in economic sanctions, making it a costly affair for South Korea
• South Korea continuing to benefit from the US nuclear umbrella
• Lack of acceptability of South Korea’s own nuclear weapons program to the US

Explaining each of the apprehensions, Dr. Dhawan pointed out that South Koreans are doubtful about the reliance on US for nuclear weapons, thereby fuelling the need for South Korea’s nuclear program. The reason behind it is the apprehension of the US needing to protect its own territories against North Korean ICBMs with nuclear capacity. US might be found at a crossroads while protecting South Korea and that could give strategic advantage to its adversaries. Furthermore, US cannot let its control in East Asia slip away so easily, weakening its presence against China, as the increasing influence of the Chinese in the Peninsula has significantly impacted its diplomatic stronghold in the region. South Korea giving up US protection might prove to be the last nail in the coffin. Another impact might be the trigger effect on the nuclear arms race in the East Asian region.

Concluding his presentation, Dr. Dhawan also specified the potential ideas that might benefit Seoul. Having already established a thriving civil nuclear program for technological and industrial purposes, it could be relatively easy to understand and analyse the dynamics and technicalities of the development of nuclear weapons in South Korea according to Dr. Dhawan.  He added that the analyses of Project 890 shall also act as a guidebook for future endeavour, which will imperatively arm and strengthen South Korea against North Korea. However, regional political dynamics and the alliance with the US could prevent South Korea from going nuclear.

Scholars at MP-IDSA posed a diverse range of questions to which the speaker gave detailed answers.

Report was prepared by Ms. Shipra Dwivedi, Intern, Nuclear and Arms Control Centre, MP – IDSA.