In its post-colonial phase, the regions of Asia, Africa and Latin America have experienced varying degrees of political, social and economic turbulence. The goal of political leadership in all the regions has been the establishment of democracy and achievement of economic growth in order to provide peace and stability to their people. Of all the regions, South Asia is the one which can be regarded as having achieved a greater degree of political stability and economic growth, except perhaps the Asia-Pacific region, particularly parts of East and South East Asia.
In the last 10 years or so, the trend in South Asia has been towards greater stability and faster economic growth. This can be said to be true of most countries of South Asia to a greater or less degree, even if there have been upheavals of various kinds off and on. For instance, India has had a continuous rule by the UPA alliance since 2004, although the alliance has had its normal problems. Nepal came out of the clutches of monarchical autocracy and Maoist violence, and set itself on the path of a non-violent struggle for acquiring a modus-vivendi among contending political forces in a democratic framework. Bangladesh despite being faced with the challenges of right wing extremism and threats of military activism has found it possible to stay put on the democratic path. Pakistan has fought a valiant war against the perennial strong hold of the army and the well orchestrated violence of Islamic extremists and managed to keep a democratically elected government in power at least since 2008. The successful war against Tamil terrorists in Sri Lanka has enabled this country to pay greater attention to processes of long term reconciliation with the Tamil minority, within the framework of a united Sri Lanka. Afghanistan has gone through an epic struggle to defeat a highly motivated insurgency in the last ten years, with the strong intervention of foreign powers, and has ultimately realised the unavoidability of reconciliation with the insurgents, so that the country can achieve a modicum of stability. In the Maldives, despite the recent political upheaval, the political system has found it possible to keep standing on democratic legs, in the hope of absorbing incipient challenges in due course. Bhutan, of course has gradually veered towards greater democratisation with full support of the monarchy and has tended to move towards greater long term stability. In Myanmar as well, political liberalisation initiated by the newly elected president in 2011 has led to greater political stability, enabling the most popular democratic leader to participate in the electoral process, and work within the framework of the new constitution.
In the economic field, the South Asian region as a whole has seen upward growth in varying degrees. India’s rate of growth was noticeable and the optimism has not dimmed despite the recent slowdown. The Bangladesh economy has also been doing well with an average growth rate of 6 per cent in the last ten years. The growth rate of Bhutan has averaged 8 per cent during the same period. Sri Lanka has recently witnessed a growth rate of nearly 8 per cent, in the post war years. There is no doubt that there have been severe challenges to economic growth in Pakistan, partly resulting from natural disasters and partly a consequence of internal strife. Nepal’s economy has also been the victim of political conflicts and contradictions, which are now in the process of being patched up. While the Afghan economy has been adversely affected by the prevailing security situation over the last decade, there have been certain years of high growth triggered by large infusion of foreign aid and remittances. The Maldivian economy has intermittently shown years of negative growth along with certain years of above average growth. The economy slipped over the last year which could be regarded as one of the reasons for the recent political strife. The Myanmar economy showed an excellent average rate of 9% growth during the last 10 years, recording a very high rate of growth during the first 5 years of the decade, which sharply fluctuated in later years, largely due to political vicissitudes and aggravated by natural disasters.
The primary focus of this conference will therefore be to examine the forces and processes which have led to relative political stability or unleashed trends in that direction, as also the causes which are responsible for poor economic growth, in some parts of South Asia. In view of the fact that the countries of South Asia are of uneven size and resources, the relationships among them and the extent to which they affect each other’s stability and growth becomes an important variable. The framework of analyses will have to include an enquiry into reasons for reduced violence in some countries and continued violence in some others. It will have to delve into the factors that have stimulated economic growth in some countries, and impeded economic growth in some others. Also, what will need to be examined is how far the positive political and economic trends in the region are irreversible or lend themselves to internal convulsions and external influences. Besides, it will be important to examine how far the inter-state relations within the region tend to lead to stronger intra-regional cooperation, particularly in the economic field.
The conference intends to deliberate on the following issues:
- What is the interplay between political and economic factors in the region?
- How do intra-regional relationships affect stability and growth?
- What is the role of external powers in promoting stability and growth?
- What is the way forward for sustaining stability and growth?
