Rapporteur Report on Session III

November 4, 2009

Securing South Asia: Country Perspectives

This session, chaired by Lt. Gen. (Retd.) B. S. Malik, brought out country perspectives keeping in view the key objectives of the Conference and each speaker highlighted key challenges faced by their respective country and offered a way forward in the spirit of regional cooperation for the coming decade.

Stabilising Afghanistan: Challenges Ahead?: Dr. Davood Moradian, emphasized the need to address structural and causal factors for the seemingly endless cycle of conflict and violence in Afghanistan. He identified three main obstacles to the establishment of a strong and a representative Afghan state:

1. Monopoly of state formation by an ethnic group – failure of the earlier political elite to create strong state institutions;
2. Religious factor – unlike other Muslim countries, religion could not be integrated into state institutions and political structures in Afghanistan;
3. Role of external forces in terms of directly or indirectly interfering and meddling in the country’s affairs.

Arguing that the objective of the Taliban is to create a Talibanistan comprising Afghanistan, Pakistan, and other regions, Dr. Moradian held that the highly institutionalised external support mechanism is responsible for the growth and sustenance of the Taliban movement. Commenting on the post-9/11 political process, he asserted that with assistance from the international community a modern Afghan state has been created and all ethnic groups are well represented in its institutions. He also noted that progressive Islamic forces too are well represented in the Afghan Parliament. He concluded by saying that if the international community remains engaged and committed, Afghanistan would be a major catalyst for regional trade and commerce between south, central and west Asia by the year 2020. He emphasised the significance of SAARC for the region and asserted that the principle of good neighbourly relations and regional co-operation has a priority in Afghan foreign policy.

Prof. Sumanasiri Liyanage in his presentation on The Tamil National Question in Sri Lanka: Current Dynamics and Future Trends singled out the Tamil national question as the most important variable that has affected and shaped the socio-political landscape of post-colonial Sri Lanka. He argued that though Tamil Eelam project has been defeated, the Tamil national question remains intact and unaddressed. Prof. Liyanage finally identified four possible scenarios for the post-LTTE Sri Lanka and assumes that the actual developments may combine the characteristics of all four.

Scenario 1: Developmental Welfarism – Some section of the ruling coalition and Sinhala elite appear to be thinking that there is no separate or specific Tamil problem. The key problem is of underdevelopment which is common to the Sinhala and Tamil population in peripheral regions. Therefore, special attention to new developmental strategies is warranted.

Scenario 2: Assimilationist Strategy – President Mahinda Rajapakse in his speech to Parliament after the conclusion of the war said that there are no divisions in the country between majority and minority. He implied an over-arching Sri Lankan identity making other identities subordinate to it. It is possible that non-dominant communities may come forward to resist such an over-arching identity.

Scenario 3: Power-Sharing Arrangement – There is no genuine effort to implement the 13th amendment. The implementation of many development programmes is done by the central government, completely neglecting elected provincial bodies. Finally, there has been a significant Sinhala national opposition within and without the government to any kind of power-sharing arrangement.

Scenario 4: Back to Confrontational Politics – If the government gives in to Sinhala exclusivist forces and assumes that a large section of the Sinhala masses are against any kind of consensual politics and are totally unconcerned about the Tamil national issue, the re-emergence of exclusivist Tamil nationalist politics may be unavoidable. The epicentre of Tamil exclusive nationalist politics has been transferred to the diasporic community. Although it may not happen in the immediate future, the presence of trained combatants and stockpiles of arms hidden in various places may facilitate a re-emergence of Tamil militant groups.

Prof. Krishna P. Khanal, Federalising the Nepali State: Challenges & Opportunities: Prof. Khanal pointed out that following the success of the historic Jana Andolan II (People's Movement) in April 2006 and the Madhes revolt in January-February 2007, Nepal has decided to transform itself from a unitary state to a federal one. Several models are being floated by political parties, ethnic communities and individual experts. Opinion also differs as to the actual number and names of the proposed federal units, and division of powers between the centre and the units pertaining to natural resources and revenue sharing. Prof. Khanal observed that the demand for federalism in Nepal received momentum when the CPN (Maoist) announced the formation of autonomous regional governments in 2004 to cash in on the ethnic sentiments in favour of insurgency. However, federalism with democratic contents entered into Nepal's federal discourse only after the April Movement of 2006 and the Madhes Andolan in the beginning of 2007. Prof. Khanal suggested that the constitution-makers and the advocates of federalism need to take into account ethnic, linguistic and cultural homogeneity of population; geographic contiguity; natural resources and economic viability; administrative feasibility; and mutual interdependence, while deciding on the contours of federation. However, enough homework is required and it should not be motivated by political expediencies.

Dr. Tahmina Rashid: Radicalisation of Civil Society: A Case Study of Pakistan: Dr. Rashid brought out the process of radicalisation of Pakistan’s civil society and discussed in detail its implications for the future of civil society in the country. She argued that civil society in Pakistan has evolved as a reactive phenomenon since the establishment of Pakistan and is fractured by resurgence of faith and divided along ethnic, gender, class and sectarian lines. State power too was ruthlessly used to curb political opposition and silence civil rights groups. Dr. Rashid noted that both civil and military regimes in Pakistan have generally had an ambivalent attitude towards civil society organisations, despite recognition that these organisations provide vital services to disadvantaged people. This would remain part of the psyche of the Pakistani elite, which would continue to feel threatened by the former’s very presence and advocacy agendas. There was no such pressure on radical elements in the society. Neither these organisations were required to register nor have they had to submit to annual audits or reviews. Civil society in Pakistan is not a cohesive organic whole. It is two tracked – one made up of urban, modern, liberal/secular, educated, and image conscious members, while the other is made up of “ethnic, denominational, sectarian and clan organisations that espouse traditional religious values.” Dr. Rashid suggested that there is a third group that overlaps ‘traditional and modern’ civil society. Members of this group are ideologically driven, primarily urban based and educated professionals. The inability of the state to govern and deliver has expanded the space for this group and has effectively sidelined many liberal civil society groups.

Mr. Ibrahim Hussain Zaki, South Asia 2020: A Maldivian Perspective: Mr. Zaki, reflected on a wide range of issues concerning the region. He noted that the winds of democracy have been sweeping across South Asia in recent years, with a vigour and vitality that bodes well for the future of the region. Mr. Zaki asserted that today Maldives can proudly lay claim to the fact that it is the one and only 100 per cent Muslim country that is truly democratic, in which individual freedoms and human rights are just as resolutely defended as the rights of the State. This should lay to rest the arguments put forth by many that Islam and modern democracy are somehow incompatible. Mr. Zaki identified climate change as one of the greatest challenges before Maldives, which lies just 1.5 metres above sea level. He felt that for regional peace and prosperity to really take root, South Asian countries need to trade far more with one another. He concluded by saying that as the smallest member of SAARC, and as one of the newest democracies in the world, Maldives takes heart from the recent positive developments in the region and dares hope that cooperation rather than confrontation may indeed become the norm for 2020 in South Asia.

Discussion

1. The issue of rapidly growing influence of Wahhabis and Salafis, though still in minority in the Pakistan polity, has to be seen with grave concern. It is worth enquiring how the majority of Pakistan people who are Barelvis and believe in Sufism are reacting and responding to this trend.
2. On the question of what more needs to be done to stabilise Afghanistan, it was said that the international community will have to first grasp the enormity and immensity of the challenges of governance in the country. There is a need to strengthen the state institutions at various levels, and avoid weakening them for purpose of proxy politics.
3. It was said that the US is not re-abandoning Afghanistan and that the West needs to take a long-term view of the need to stay the course in the country. In view of the rising Taliban challenge, more troops definitely need to be inducted provided this is accompanied by a comprehensive strategy that includes massive civil reconstruction assistance and a broader regional strategy to counter obscurantist and terrorist forces active in the region.
4. On India-Afghan relations, it was said that India’s commitment to the ongoing political process and its reconstruction assistance in Afghanistan is widely appreciated. It was also observed that India should not be defensive about its presence in Afghanistan which is legitimate and essential to its security. If there was a note of caution on India’s increased involvement in Afghanistan, there was also the view that India should be more confident and assertive about its Afghan policy.

Interestingly, there was complete consensus on the view that India’s strong democratic credentials show the way forward for the region. If democratic institutions are strong in India, it is beneficial for neighbouring countries as well, especially countries that are either young democracies or are undergoing political transition.

Report prepared by Vishal Chandra, and edited by Sreeradha Datta, Institute for Defence Studies & Analyses, New Delhi.